ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162230

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the
   far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to
   progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas.
   The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this
   weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin
   and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern
   California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop
   across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs,
   especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the
   central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper
   trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of
   CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the
   Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin.
   Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by
   D8/Thursday.

     ...Southwest and Southern High Plains...
   Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New
   Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough
   slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid
   level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire
   weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across
   portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to
   zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide
   receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher
   probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin
   to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast
   New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level
   southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from
   the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies,
   promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern
   New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving
   into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New
   Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week
   where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although
   elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to
   southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more
   widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop
   across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present.

   ..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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