Mar 29, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 29 05:32:12 UTC 2024 (20240329 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240329 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240329 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 30,575 2,636,937 Rockford, IL...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Iowa City, IA...Janesville, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240329 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240329 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240329 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 30,661 2,621,502 Rockford, IL...Cedar Rapids, IA...Davenport, IA...Iowa City, IA...Dubuque, IA...
   SPC AC 290532

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the
   Midwest Friday night.

   ...Midwest...

   Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as
   a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley
   advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then
   shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest,
   before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period.
   Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the
   central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in
   response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially
   quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values
   may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing
   ratios expected near 8 g/kg.

   Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning,
   as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW
   Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally
   low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold
   (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest
   elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and
   scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within
   the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will
   remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to
   support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate
   marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA
   then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late
   evening/overnight hours.

   ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z