NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Moderate Risk Areas: ACROSS PARTS OF OK & KS & NEB
Slight Risk Areas: ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.

A severe weather outbreak is forecast on Sun (05/19). See details...
New: The SPC Mesoanalysis Page now has an option to incorporate the experimental ESRL Rapid Refresh version 2 (RAPv2) model as background input for the mesoanalysis fields, in addition to the current operational NCEP Rapid Refresh (RAP) model. (Updated: April 30 2013)

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Sat (05/18)	Sun (05/19)	Mon (05/20)	Tue (05/21)	Wed (05/22)	Thu (05/23)	Fri (05/24)	Sat (05/25)
Severe	Moderate	Moderate	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Critical	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1982-2011)

Any Severe Probabilities: 19 May

Tornado Probabilities: 19 May

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 19 May

Severe Hail Probabilities: 19 May

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 19 May

Significant Wind Probabilities: 19 May

Significant Hail Probabilities: 19 May

More severe weather climatology data here.

Today's Storm Report Trend


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Full-size plot here.

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Find out the difference between a severe weather Watch and Warning here.

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2013 Watch Summaries

Page last modified: May 18 2013 12:16 UTC

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Latest SPC Publications

Edwards, R., 2012: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: A Review of Knowledge in Research and Prediction. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor.
Garner, J.M., 2012: Environments of Significant Tornadoes Occurring within the Warm Sector versus Those Occurring along Surface Baroclinic Boundaries. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor.
Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, J.S. Grams, C. Broyles, and H.E. Brooks, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part I: Storm Classification and Climatology. Published in Weather and Forecasting.
Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, and C. Broyles, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS Tornado Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting.
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

May 17, 2013	Tornado: 10	Wind: 19	Hail: 80