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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 24, 2009
Updated: Tue Nov 24 09:33:03 UTC 2009
| D4 | Fri, Nov 27, 2009 - Sat, Nov 28, 2009 |
D7 | Mon, Nov 30, 2009 - Tue, Dec 01, 2009 |
| D5 | Sat, Nov 28, 2009 - Sun, Nov 29, 2009 |
D8 | Tue, Dec 01, 2009 - Wed, Dec 02, 2009 |
| D6 | Sun, Nov 29, 2009 - Mon, Nov 30, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240932
SPC AC 240932
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE WITH THE BUCKLING OF THE FLOW
OVER THE WRN STATES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER. MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY 6-8 RANGE /SUN-TUE
29 NOV-1 DEC/ INTRODUCE SIZABLE VARIANCE WITH PERHAPS THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC/MEANS OFFERING THE MOST CONSISTENCY. EXPECT THAT THE
MINOR SRN STREAM WAVE THAT EJECTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS WEEK WILL
PRIME THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN. THEN...AS A STRONG
UPR LOW DIGS OVER THE DESERT SW SAT-SUN...A STRONGER ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS. AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO PEAK AND
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY-TILTED OVER THE SRN PLNS ON THE 1
DEC...PERHAPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WILL CO-EXIST FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GULF CST INTO THE
LWR MS VLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME...A HIGHER-END SVR OUTLOOK IS NOT
JUSTIFIED.
..RACY.. 11/24/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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