MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...AR...ERN OK...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 041652Z - 041745Z
   
   SWRN FLANK OF OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS NRN OK/SWRN MO
   INTO NWRN AR.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF MCS CARCASS IS BEGINNING TO
   DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES NOW ON THE ORDER
   OF 7-8 C/KM AND MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.  AS INHIBITION
   WEAKENS IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG LEADING EDGE
   OF OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE ONGOING WITH NEW
   UPDRAFTS STRENGTHENING OVER NWRN AR/ECNTRL OK ATTM.  ALTHOUGH
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
   PROVE ADEQUATE...GIVEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION.
   
   DOWNSTREAM...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOTICEABLY WEAKER NEAR THE MS
   RIVER...CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR INTO WRN TN.  SOMEWHAT
   STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 07/04/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   35429510 36129392 37489152 37388722 35299027 34709464
               35429510