MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INTO CNTRL MT...SRN ALBERTA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 041939Z - 042215Z
   
   STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE
   HAIL LIKELY. 
   
   SURFACE HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF MT WITH TCU OVER THE E
   SLOPES AND SWRN MTNS. THE 12Z TFX SOUNDING SHOWS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
   ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WLY FLOW.
   MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS
   1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE.  OF NOTE ON THIS SOUNDING WAS THE LACK OF ANY
   CAP AND A DEEP AND WELL MIXED LOW 50S F DEWPOINT.
   
   STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HAIL A DISTINCT
   THREAT. MODIFIED HAILCAST MODEL SUGGESTS MAX HAIL SIZE OF AROUND
   1.00"...AND PERHAPS A BIT LARGER WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
   OVER-ACHIEVE GIVEN A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
   
   LAT...LON   46441229 47591293 48311372 49091501 49641568 50451463
               50461320 49361196 48391058 47910969 47460738 46740759
               46170788 45680933 45441133 45851229 46441229