SPC AC 150532
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO SW MS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH A MEAN
   TROUGH OVER THE SW INCLUDING A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
   PLAINS INTO THE MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THIS LEADING TROUGH
   WILL INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY TO CREATE AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM ERN TX INTO SW MS.
   
   ...ERN TX INTO LA AND SWRN MS...
   AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EWD ACROSS OK DURING THE DAY...A COLD FRONT
   WILL DEVELOP FROM CNTRL INTO ERN TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS E CNTRL AND SERN TX BY 18-20Z...AS LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND INTERACTS WITH HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S F.
   STORMS MAY FORM BOTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND ALSO ALONG A NWD
   ADVANCING MOISTURE SURGE/WARM FRONT. LONG HODOGRAPHS ATOP LOW LEVEL
   VEERING PROFILES AND MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
   FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY MIXED MODE WITH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
   BOWS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO OR TWO AS THEY TRAVEL FROM TX INTO LA AND WRN MS LATE.
   
   N AND EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT...FROM SRN AR INTO CNTRL MS AND AL
   OVERNIGHT...WILL BE LIMITED BY A RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   RESULTING IN ELEVATED EFFECTIVE PARCELS AND MINIMAL WIND TRANSFER TO
   THE SURFACE.
   
   ...SE KS...SWRN MO...ERN OK...AR...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER ERN OK/SERN KS
   INTO SWRN MO AND WRN AR...ALONG AND N OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT AND
   AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION WITH A SWLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH
   RATHER COOL PROFILES ALOFT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. BY AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE UPPER JET WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT MUCH OF OK BY AFTERNOON...WITH
   DRY AIR INTO WRN AR BY 00Z. BY THIS TIME...ACTIVITY OVER KS AND MO
   SHOULD LARGELY BE WEAK CONVECTION AND RAIN.
   
   ..JEWELL/ROGERS/MOSIER.. 02/15/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z