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Nov 8, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 8 05:53:16 UTC 2009  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 080550
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST SAT NOV 07 2009
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
   CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH MEXICO
   WILL MIGRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
   SLOWLY COME MORE INTO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER
   WESTERLIES. OTHERWISE...TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT
   CONTINUES NNW TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...REFERENCE LATEST
   NHC GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS. OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS VERY
   LOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 TODAY.
   
   ...SOUTH TX...
   E-NE ADVANCING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A MODEST INCREASE
   IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH TX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM
   POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF TX TODAY. WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   SOME TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE AREAS AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER
   TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...
   SOME LATTER PERIOD TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
   TONIGHT ALONG SE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND NORTHERN OK AFTER 06Z. WHILE SHOWERS MAY BE
   DOMINANT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT WEAK BUOYANCY/CHARGE
   SEPARATION SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
   EMBEDDED/OCCASIONAL TSTMS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/08/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: November 08, 2009
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