Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 160534
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN
   NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...NERN STATES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
   TODAY. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT MOVING INTO NY. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AN AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM NEW JERSEY NNEWD INTO VERMONT WHERE
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT SHOULD SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE. HOWEVER...THE
   MODELS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FAST
   MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE...THEN
   A LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST. THE GREATER THREAT COULD BE FOR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. A SEVERE THREAT
   MAY EXTEND SWWD INTO ERN PA AND NJ ALONG THE AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY BUT STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED FURTHER TO
   THE SOUTH.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS/SE GA/NE FL...
   SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES
   AND CAROLINAS TODAY. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY
   FROM NRN FL NEWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHERE ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
   THE PEAK IN DESTABILIZATION.
   
   ..BROYLES/COHEN.. 05/16/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z