SPC AC 250526
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL JET MAX OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECREASING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST BY DARK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE
BEFORE NOON AND MAINLY ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THE
00Z NAM AND 4KM WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A
TORNADO. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY
BRING THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO AN END. THE OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES.
..HART/GRAMS.. 11/25/2009
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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