Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 13, 2012 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 13 16:27:00 UTC 2012  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 131622
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
   
   VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUES FROM CA EWD TO THE MS VALLEY...WITH
   EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SEWD OVER CENTRAL CA...AND
   PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. 
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY BELOW 500 MB WILL SUPPORT A RISK
   FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SRN SACRAMENTO
   VALLEYS TODAY...WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN NV WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.  
   
   A WAA REGIME WILL SPREAD EWD FROM E TX/LA/AR TO MS/AL BY EARLY
   TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
   IN THE LOW 60S WILL SPREAD JUST INLAND ACROSS THE UPPER TX/SW LA
   COASTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES ENEWD
   FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
   SURFACE HEATING AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL NOT PROMOTE
   SUBSTANTIAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INLAND.  WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR/N OF I-20 IN THE WAA
   REGIME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/13/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 13, 2012
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities