SPC AC 131622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM CONTINUES FROM CA EWD TO THE MS VALLEY...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING SEWD OVER CENTRAL CA...AND
PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY BELOW 500 MB WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SRN SACRAMENTO
VALLEYS TODAY...WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN NV WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.
A WAA REGIME WILL SPREAD EWD FROM E TX/LA/AR TO MS/AL BY EARLY
TONIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TX/OK. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S WILL SPREAD JUST INLAND ACROSS THE UPPER TX/SW LA
COASTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES ENEWD
FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL NOT PROMOTE
SUBSTANTIAL NEAR-SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY INLAND. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND INLAND TO NEAR/N OF I-20 IN THE WAA
REGIME...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/13/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z