Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 151619
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
   STATES AND CAROLINAS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   ...SC/NC/VA/MD...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
   THE NATION TODAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS EAST TN.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS
   THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS WHERE POCKETS OF
   HEATING WILL HELP YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH TODAY /MID 60S TO NEAR 70F/.  THE RESULT WILL BE
   A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG/.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS
   REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS.  LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER
   STORMS.  THE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...IA/IL/WI/LOWER MI...
   A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
   EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...THEN EASTWARD INTO
   CENTRAL LOWER MI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  FULL SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WHILE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
   J/KG.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND SPREAD
   SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN IL.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THIS THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.
   
   ...SOUTH TX...
   A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
   SOUTH TX...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY
   WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ..HART/SMITH.. 05/15/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z