SPC AC 150531
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY MERGING WITH/LIFTING
   INTO BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
   STREAM...ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW
   ENGLAND.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS
   THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
   NIGHT.  WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY PROCEEDS ACROSS THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MAY
   COMMENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A TRAILING COLD IS EXPECTED TO
   ADVANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z FRIDAY...WHILE BECOMING
   QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT ANOTHER CLOSED
   LOW/TROUGH...DIGGING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WILL PROGRESS INTO
   NORTHWEST MEXICO...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM
   BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES.
   
   CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THE
   FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY SEEMS
   LIKELY TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...WHILE GENERALLY SPREADING
   ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   PROBABLY WILL BECOME CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
   SOUTHWEST/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE SCATTERED...MOSTLY WEAK
   ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FORCING
   NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING CLOSED LOW.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE EMERGING FROM
   THE SOUTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY
   NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ CENTRAL GULF
   STATES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL GULF
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
   THURSDAY.  COUPLED WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OFF THE
   ATLANTIC...PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
   WEAK...AND GENERALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
   FLORIDA...PERHAPS IMMEDIATE SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. 
   STILL...GIVEN WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
   A STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME OVERSPREADING THE REGION...THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/15/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z