SPC AC 010448
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
   WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WITHIN
   ONE STREAM OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW...A VIGOROUS SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE ALEUTIANS...
   ...BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC
   NEAR 150W LONGITUDE.  AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL
   TEND TO BUILD NORTHWARD/SHARPEN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   COAST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY
   PERTURBATIONS PROGRESSING THROUGH A COUPLE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
   LATITUDE BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW.  AT THE SAME TIME...A PROMINENT
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN ONE OF THESE STREAMS IS ALREADY EXPECTED
   TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING THROUGH ONTARIO AND PARTS OF THE
   UPPER MIDWEST...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
   OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COOL/DRY INTRUSIONS TO
   THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... REINFORCING GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
   ALREADY PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
   
   ...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   MOISTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION LIKELY WILL EXIST NEAR
   A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THE
   CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
   EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  A FEW STORMS MAY BE
   POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE RISK OVER
   INLAND AREAS SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/01/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z