SPC AC 060555
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT SUN NOV 06 2011
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   A FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
   INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...A SFC LOW
   WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX DURING THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW
   INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
   BRING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS NORTH TX INTO CNTRL
   OK WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING INTO
   THE AFTERNOON IN THE REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION. THE CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM
   THE TX HILL COUNTRY NWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL OK. FURTHER TO THE
   WEST OF THE MIDDAY STORMS ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE
   MODELS FORECAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES POSSIBLY
   REACHING THE 1000 TO 1500 J/K RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS...DISCRETE CELL INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THE
   MODELS ALL DEVELOP STORMS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
   CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE.
   AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS A SQUALL-LINE WILL DEVELOP IN WRN OK AND
   NW TX AND MOVE EWD INTO WCNTRL OK AND ACROSS NORTH TX SIMILAR TO THE
   GFS SOLUTION.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND NORTHWEST TX ON TUESDAY
   GRADUALLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AS THE EXIT REGION OF
   THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   VALUES AS HIGH AS 50 KT COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS STORM MODE. THE CURRENT THINKING
   IS THAT SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH A FAIRLY
   QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON
   THE SRN END OF THE LINE FROM NORTHWEST SWD INTO WCNTRL TX WHERE MORE
   DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN A LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL THREAT FROM FAR SW OK SWD TO
   AROUND SAN ANGELO WITH SEVERAL TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL
   GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WHERE A HATCHED AREA FOR
   SIGNIFICANT HAIL HAS BEEN ADDED. A STRONG TORNADO ALSO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
   ALSO EXIST FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL OK...THE MORE PREDOMINANT THREAT
   COULD BECOME WIND DAMAGE AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD INTO ECNTRL OK
   AND ACROSS NORTH TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2011
   
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