Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 110619
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 AM CST SUN MAR 11 2012
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   CORRECTED FOR THUNDER GRAPHIC
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE INTENSE
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
   REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE 12HR VALUES WILL APPROACH 150-180M
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND
   FROM THE U.P. OF MI...SWD INTO EXTREME NRN IND BY 13/00Z WITH A
   FOCUSED SPEED MAX ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS LOWER MI.  NAM IS THE MOST
   AGGRESSIVE MODEL REGARDING DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE
   JET...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC HEATING AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT
   THAT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  IF BOUNDARY
   LAYER CAN HEAT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM WITH READINGS INTO THE
   LOW-MID 60S THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE LOW
   PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS PREDICATED ON STRONG SFC HEATING
   PROVIDING ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR SFC-BASED ACTIVITY PRIMARILY BETWEEN
   THE HOURS OF 20-00Z.
   
   ...KY SWWD INTO NRN MS/AL...
   
   IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING WARM CONVEYOR PRECIPITATION LARGE SCALE
   FORCING WILL BECOME WEAK TO POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT ACROSS THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES.  WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO LIFT WELL
   NORTH OF THIS REGION AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ANTICIPATED TO
   OVERSPREAD MIDDLE TN BY LATE AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE
   TO DEVELOP.  SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
   BE THAT STEEP BUT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS
   THIS REGION WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WOULD OTHERWISE PROVE CAPABLE OF
   SUPPORTING AT LEAST STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
   SUPPORT AND NO CONVINCING REASON FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL
   MAINTAIN ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IF STORMS
   MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/11/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z