SPC AC 150804
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 AM CST WED FEB 15 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...PROGGED TO DIG INTO
   NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ...AS
   ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 
   HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING THE SPEED AND
   MANNER IN WHICH THE IMPULSE EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND
   ACCELERATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY.
   
   THE 15/00Z GFS IS AT THE FASTER END OF THE SPECTRUM...PERHAPS
   LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO ITS STRONGER AMPLIFICATION OF A NORTHERN
   BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY FRIDAY.  THE NAM/SREF ARE AT THE SLOWER END...MAINTAINING A
   CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGING.  IN
   BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...THE ECMWF AND UKMET PROBABLY WILL COME
   CLOSER TO VERIFYING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED
   TO APPROACH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
   
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW...AND A
   SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. 
   STRONGEST ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT IT MAY NOT BE
   OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE THE
   FRONT...COUPLED WITH STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR HAIL ACROSS PARTS
   OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND LOWER/MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. 
   HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM LOWER THAN 5 PERCENT AT
   THE CURRENT TIME.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/15/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z