Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ALTUS
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...
DISCUSSION...VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /95-100F SFC TEMPS AND
DCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
WELL-DEFINED MCS OUTFLOW SITUATED ACROSS SCNTRL OK ATTM. A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ESSENTIALLY REMOVE REMAINING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE REACTIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEP AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT
SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TSTM DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE. RANDOM STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS MAY FURTHER ENHANCE TSTM
ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28015.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 546 SEVERE TSTM OK 041745Z - 050100Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55ENE ADM/ARDMORE OK/ - 45WNW LTS/ALTUS OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /23SW MLC - 34NNE CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28015.
LAT...LON 34009612 34310000 35470000 35169612
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 546 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 546
VALID 050035Z - 050100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 546 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050100Z.
..HURLBUT..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-055-057-063-065-
067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-141-149-050100-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN
CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 546
VALID 042335Z - 050040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-055-057-063-065-
067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-141-149-050040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN
CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 546
VALID 042235Z - 042340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-055-057-063-065-
067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-141-149-042340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN
CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 546
VALID 042145Z - 042240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-055-057-063-065-
067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-141-149-042240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN
CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 546
VALID 042025Z - 042140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-015-019-027-029-031-033-049-051-055-057-063-065-
067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-141-149-042140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN
CADDO CARTER CLEVELAND
COAL COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL
MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.