Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...WW 546...
DISCUSSION...WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NRN MO AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS NRN AR. MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO AID
TSTM UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION AS LARGE SCALE LIFT/ASCENT IS
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH
ROTATING STORMS ON OR CROSSING THE WARM FRONT INVOF MS/OH RIVER
CONFLUENCE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED IN
SCOPE TO SUPPORT TORNADO WATCH BUT STORMS DEVELOPING OR MOVING INTO
THIS AREA SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL
ROTATION.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 547 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 041910Z - 050100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25W POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 30NE PAH/PADUCAH KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /40N ARG - 45SW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 37639091 38248837 36508837 35909091
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 547 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 547
VALID 050040Z - 050100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE DYR TO
10 SSE PAH TO 25 ESE PAH.
WW 547 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050100Z AS STRONGER STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THIS WATCH.
..PETERS..07/05/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC033-035-047-083-143-157-219-221-050100-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
GRAVES LYON MARSHALL
TODD TRIGG
$$
TNC017-079-183-050100-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL HENRY WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 547
VALID 042340Z - 050040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW DYR
TO 20 WSW PAH TO 20 E PAH.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC033-035-039-047-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-219-221-050040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE
CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TODD
TRIGG
$$
MOC155-050040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PEMISCOT
$$
TNC017-079-095-131-183-050040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL HENRY LAKE
OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 547
VALID 042240Z - 042340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW JBR TO
40 NNW DYR TO 20 SSE MDH TO 20 E MDH TO 40 SE MVN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC031-055-042340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIGHEAD GREENE
$$
ILC087-127-151-153-165-199-042340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
PULASKI SALINE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-145-157-042340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MOC069-133-143-155-042340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT
$$
TNC095-131-183-042340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 547
VALID 042145Z - 042240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ARG TO
20 ENE POF TO 20 NNW CGI TO 20 NW MDH.
..PETERS..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-055-042240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE
$$
ILC003-055-065-077-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-199-042240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN HAMILTON
JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC
PERRY POPE PULASKI
SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-145-157-042240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MOC023-031-069-133-143-155-181-201-207-042240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU DUNKLIN
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PEMISCOT
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
$$
TNC095-131-183-042240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 547
VALID 042025Z - 042140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..07/04/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-055-042140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE
$$
ILC003-055-065-077-087-127-145-151-153-157-165-181-199-042140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN HAMILTON
JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC
PERRY POPE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SALINE UNION
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-139-145-157-042140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-093-123-133-143-155-157-179-181-186-187-
201-207-223-042140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN IRON
MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT PERRY REYNOLDS
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE
$$
TNC095-131-183-042140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.