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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Mar 29, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 29 14:44:03 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170329 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170329 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 13,249 15,173 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
   FNUS21 KWNS 291439

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

   Valid 291700Z - 301200Z


   Ongoing forecast is on track with only minimal changes to the
   elevated area in southwest Texas.  Critical conditions remain likely
   in areas near the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon.  See the
   previous forecast below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/29/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

   A deep midlevel cyclone and an associated surface cyclone are
   forecast to move across portions of the South-Central States. A
   deep/dry boundary layer west of a Pacific boundary (extending to the
   south of the surface cyclone) will linger across southwest TX. A
   comparatively stronger cold front is forecast to advance southward
   across the southern High Plains.

   ...Portions of southwest TX...
   Across the Critical area, downslope trajectories and related
   warming/drying will support minimum RH around 10-15 percent.
   Diurnally enhanced vertical mixing into enhanced flow aloft
   surrounding the deep midlevel cyclone will support westerly to
   west-northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, combining with the
   aforementioned RH. Winds will turn more northwesterly/northerly
   through the late afternoon/evening behind the southward-moving cold
   front, which will be accompanied by an influx of cooler air
   supporting higher RH.

   Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast to surround the
   Critical area, though any areas of strong winds are not expected to
   coincide with sufficiently low RH for Critical designation.

   ...Portions of the lower CO River Valley...
   Strong vertical mixing amid a dry air mass will support minimum RH
   around 7-10 percent, while slightly enhanced flow aloft is
   manifested at the surface as wind speeds around 15 mph. With areas
   of dry fuels, an Elevated area is in effect.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

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