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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
May 5, 2016 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu May 5 16:31:02 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160505 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160505 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 41,968 5,402,918 Phoenix, AZ...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Glendale, AZ...Chandler, AZ...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 051627

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

   VALID 051700Z - 061200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AZ...

   ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AZ...AND FAR WRN NM...
   THE ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NWD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF NRN
   AZ...WHERE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH THE FLAGSTAFF WEATHER
   FORECAST OFFICE...SOME AREAS OF SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS EXIST ACROSS
   PARTS OF NRN AZ FOR ELEVATED DESIGNATION. HOWEVER...FUELS ARE NOT
   DRY ENOUGH ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION IN THIS
   OUTLOOK UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...WITH NO
   CHANGES TO THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ BASED ON
   THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

   ..COHEN.. 05/05/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS
   MORNING...WITH UPPER RIDGING PROMINENT ACROSS THE ROCKY MTNS AND
   HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
   CA. ONLY A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS FORECAST THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS
   MUCH OF AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST...A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER
   UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN/CNTRL AZ...AND FAR
   SWRN NM...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SRN/CNTRL AZ. STRONG/GUSTY SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH SHOULD
   DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   BECOMES MAXIMIZED AND ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE
   SFC. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES
   GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ACROSS THIS REGION...RH
   VALUES SHOULD EASILY FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 5
   PERCENT LOCALLY. FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FINE FUELS WILL BE
   RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AZ. SURROUNDING THE
   CRITICAL DELINEATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...A LARGER PORTION OF
   AZ...AND FAR SWRN NM. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED DELINEATION IS
   CONSTRAINED BY GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS. AN EWD EXPANSION HAS
   BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA IN SERN AZ...AS LATEST SHORT-TERM
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
   AS LOCATIONS FURTHER W IN S-CNTRL AZ.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL...
   BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
   COAST EARLY TODAY...GUSTY NWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
   DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THIS
   REGION AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
   FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FINE FUELS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE
   STARTS FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL
   RAINFALL OVER THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED
   AN ELEVATED AREA WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...
   LOWERED RH VALUES...AND DRY FUELS ARE EXPECTED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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