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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Sep 26, 2016 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 26 16:12:03 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160926 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160926 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 13,780 11,039,405 Los Angeles, CA...Riverside, CA...Glendale, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Oxnard, CA...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261607

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

   VALID 261700Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
   THIS MORNING WITH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALING A -10.7 MB
   LAX-TPH GRADIENT...A -5.3 LAX-DAG GRADIENT...AND A -7 MB SAN-LAS
   GRADIENT. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WAS REALIZED WITH MOST SITES
   ACROSS THE REGION REPORTING RH VALUES AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT
   THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
   SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
   DAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT A WEAKENING GRADIENT COUPLED WITH INCREASED
   MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN
   A GRADUALLY DECREASING FIRE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN SO...THREAT WILL
   REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN THE
   CRITICAL DELINEATION AND NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS
   FORECAST.

   ..MOSIER.. 09/26/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL REX PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH NEAR BAJA
   CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE STAYS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
   THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE...A CORRIDOR OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
   ALOFT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN
   EMBEDDED LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS IS EXPECTED
   TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS/TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD. THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...RH VALUES SHOULD QUICKLY
   FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
   ENCOURAGE GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE
   MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MOREOVER...MORE EASTERLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
   REGARDLESS...AREAS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS
   OF 30-45 MPH/ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
   CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.

   WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME LATER IN THE DAY...BEFORE NOCTURNAL
   STRENGTHENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RH RECOVERY
   SHOULD BE GREATER VERSUS THAT OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...WHILE SOME ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE LOCALIZED AT
   BEST.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: September 26, 2016
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