ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 271413
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A
SMALL PART OF WEST TEXAS...
Ongoing forecast is generally on track with minimal changes to the
elevated area and no changes to the critical. The northward change
is in response to slower forecast progression of a cold front across
the New Mexico Front Range, with breezy and dry conditions
developing ahead of it amidst pockets of dry fuels. Locally
critical fire weather conditions may occur in central and
south-central New Mexico, although 20mph wind speeds should not
occur for sufficient duration to merit any upgrade with this
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also likely in Florida
today, with locally breezy conditions, extremely dry fuels/high
ERCs, and ongoing drought will foster heightened fire weather
concerns. Winds will not meet thresholds for introducing any
highlights for this update, however.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0252 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/
An upper trough is expected to shift eastward into the central U.S.
today, as a ridge continues to build into the West. A surface low
over the southern High Plains is expected to move northeastward into
portions of the Midwest by the end of the period, as a cold front
sweeps through portions of the central/southern Plains.
...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains...
As the upper trough begins to move out of the Southwest and southern
High Plains, some weakening in low-level flow is expected compared
to previous days. However, most short-term guidance suggests a belt
of somewhat stronger flow at around 3km AGL will persist across
southeast NM into adjacent West TX. As strong heating and mixing
occur this afternoon, that stronger flow will mix down to the
surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds of 20-25 mph and a
threat of critical fire weather conditions, given critically low RH.
Surrounding the critical area, elevated conditions are expected as
sustained winds approach 20 mph within a very dry low-level airmass.
Hot and dry conditions are again expected across portions of the
central FL peninsula this afternoon, with RH values expected to drop
below critical thresholds. Low-level flow is generally expected to
be rather weak, but locally elevated conditions will be possible in
areas where sustained winds can approach 10-15 mph.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)