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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Nov 21, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 21 16:36:02 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171121 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20171121 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 211635

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

   ...Southern Plains...
   Recent surface analysis places a low near ABI with a cold front
   extending northeastward into the middle MS Valley and southwestward
   through the Edwards Plateau. Dry, post-frontal conditions are
   expected across the region today but the colder air associated with
   this new airmass will remain north of the region until later
   tonight. As a result, despite the frontal passage, high temperatures
   will still reach the upper 60s to upper 70s F (8-12 degrees
   above-average) this afternoon. Afternoon RH values in the low
   20s/upper teens are anticipated across the majority of the region.
   Additionally, a strong surface pressure gradient and enhanced flow
   aloft amidst deep boundary layer mixing will contribute to gusty
   winds (i.e. sustained 20-30 mph with gusts around 45 mph. These dry
   and windy conditions will result in elevated to locally critical
   fire weather conditions. Highest likelihood for locally critical
   conditions will occur across the TX South Plains.

   ...Southern California...
   Poor overnight recovery was realized across the higher elevations
   and weak offshore flow is currently ongoing with several sites
   experiencing wind gusts over 20 mph. Locally elevated conditions
   will continue for the next few hours before the gradient diurnally
   decreases. Similar conditions are expected early tomorrow morning.

   ..Mosier.. 11/21/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

   The mid-level ridge across the western United States will build
   northward today. Downstream from the ridge, a series of mid-level
   troughs will move across the eastern United States, helping to
   produce mean troughing. The result will be a relatively dry airmass
   entrenched across most of the United States.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Strong northerly winds in excess of 20 mph, with gusts between 40-50
   mph, will develop in the wake of a surface cold front. These winds
   will usher in a very dry airmass during the day in the wake of a
   surface cold front. Despite cold-air advection, relative humidity
   should manage to fall into the 20-30% range across much of the area,
   with locally favored areas falling into the teens. The combination
   of winds in excess of 20 mph and relative-humidity values in the
   20-30% range will result in elevated to locally critical
   fire-weather conditions. Peak fire-weather concerns will occur
   during the late morning and early afternoon across northern portions
   of the outlook area and then shift southward with time as falling
   temperatures in the north allows relative humidity to recover

   ..Southern California...
   The overall large-scale pattern will favor weak, easterly, off-shore
   flow early on Tuesday. However, the flow looks to remain weak,
   precluding the need for fire-weather highlights.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

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