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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
May 27, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat May 27 14:18:02 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170527 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170527 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 10,345 110,011 Hobbs, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Andrews, TX...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271413

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0913 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A
   SMALL PART OF WEST TEXAS...

   Ongoing forecast is generally on track with minimal changes to the
   elevated area and no changes to the critical.  The northward change
   is in response to slower forecast progression of a cold front across
   the New Mexico Front Range, with breezy and dry conditions
   developing ahead of it amidst pockets of dry fuels.  Locally
   critical fire weather conditions may occur in central and
   south-central New Mexico, although 20mph wind speeds should not
   occur for sufficient duration to merit any upgrade with this
   outlook.

   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also likely in Florida
   today, with locally breezy conditions, extremely dry fuels/high
   ERCs, and ongoing drought will foster heightened fire weather
   concerns.  Winds will not meet thresholds for introducing any
   highlights for this update, however.

   ..Cook.. 05/27/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0252 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough is expected to shift eastward into the central U.S.
   today, as a ridge continues to build into the West. A surface low
   over the southern High Plains is expected to move northeastward into
   portions of the Midwest by the end of the period, as a cold front
   sweeps through portions of the central/southern Plains. 

   ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern High Plains...
   As the upper trough begins to move out of the Southwest and southern
   High Plains, some weakening in low-level flow is expected compared
   to previous days. However, most short-term guidance suggests a belt
   of somewhat stronger flow at around 3km AGL will persist across
   southeast NM into adjacent West TX. As strong heating and mixing
   occur this afternoon, that stronger flow will mix down to the
   surface, resulting in sustained westerly winds of 20-25 mph and a
   threat of critical fire weather conditions, given critically low RH.
   Surrounding the critical area, elevated conditions are expected as
   sustained winds approach 20 mph within a very dry low-level airmass.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   Hot and dry conditions are again expected across portions of the
   central FL peninsula this afternoon, with RH values expected to drop
   below critical thresholds. Low-level flow is generally expected to
   be rather weak, but locally elevated conditions will be possible in
   areas where sustained winds can approach 10-15 mph.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: May 27, 2017
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