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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Jul 24, 2014 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 24 16:44:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140724 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20140724 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 34,633 413,777 Idaho Falls, ID...Casper, WY...Rexburg, ID...Rock Springs, WY...Green River, WY...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241634

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

   VALID 241700Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN SRN ID...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SW AND CNTRL WY...

   ...MUCH OF SRN ID INTO NE UT...WY AND CNTRL/ERN MT...

   ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS
   TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST MODEL DATA.
   PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
   DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. 

   ...E-CNTRL NV INTO FAR SW UT...

   NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 07/24/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0347 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER WRN WA PER 06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD...REACHING SRN ALBERTA BY 00Z WITH A MORE
   EWD MOTION INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
   PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS THE
   UPPER LOW MOVES EWD WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SLOWLY
   TRANSITIONS EWD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
   SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. CYCLOGENESIS
   IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WRN SD
   WITH THE LOW TRANSITIONING ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN SD OVERNIGHT.

   ...CNTRL/ERN MT...MOST OF WY...S-CNTRL/SE ID...
   MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
   WILL EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGHOUT
   THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER N-CNTRL
   AND NERN MT WHERE WLY WINDS MAY REACH 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
   45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT
   WITH A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL HAS
   CAST DOUBT ON THE RECEPTIVENESS OF THE FUELS. AS A RESULT...ELECTED
   TO REMOVE THE CRITICAL DELINEATION FROM THE AREA. ELEVATED TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. DIFFERENCES IN
   FRONTAL TIMING AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   AROUND BIL. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.

   FARTHER S /MOST OF WY AND S-CNTRL AND SE ID/...DEEP MIXING BENEATH
   MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED
   SWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
   UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   S-CNTRL AND SRN ID WHERE RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
   LIKELY PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
   ACROSS CNTRL WY AS WELL. RESULTANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
   EXPECTED OVER BOTH OF THESE AREAS WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED
   SURROUNDING THEM.

   ...NE/CNTRL/SW UT...E-CNTRL/SRN NV...
   DEEP MIXING AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS AS SWLY WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH AND RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
   UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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