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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Aug 29, 2015 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 29 17:00:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150829 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150829 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 40,043 1,453,971 Spokane, WA...Kennewick, WA...Richland, WA...Pasco, WA...Lewiston, ID...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 291655

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

   VALID 291700Z - 301200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN WA...NERN ORE...AND THE ID
   PANHANDLE...

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE LATEST
   SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT
   ADDITIONAL CRITICAL AREAS AND/OR EXPANSION OF THE ONGOING CRITICAL
   AREA ARE NOT NECESSARY WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A BROADER AREA
   OF ANY MORE THAN BRIEF/SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

   ..COHEN.. 08/29/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT ON IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
   MORNING APPROACHING THE WA/ORE COAST WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG MID-LEVEL
   FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SFC COLD FRONTAL
   PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AND NRN/CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...NRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES...AND NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   AS STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50-80 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
   MOVE EWD OVER THIS AREA. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM SLY IN
   THE MORNING TO SWLY/WLY BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE
   FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. RH VALUES SHOULD DECREASE
   ONLY MARGINALLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST...GENERALLY INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS
   PER LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN
   EXPANDED SLIGHTLY SWD TO ENCOMPASS POTIONS OF NERN ORE GIVEN LATEST
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
   COMBINED WITH ONGOING FIRES IN THIS REGION SUPPORTS THE CRITICAL
   AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN WA...NERN ORE...AND THE ID PANHANDLE...EVEN
   THOUGH CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS MAY NOT BE STRICTLY MET.

   A LARGER ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH MINOR EXPANSIONS FOR
   THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT BASIN...NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...AND NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHERE
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WILL
   INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ACROSS THESE REGIONS...FORECAST WIND
   SPEEDS AND/OR RH VALUES DO NOT CURRENTLY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
   ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN
   ROCKIES WHERE FORECAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER. IF FUTURE
   SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL MT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
   A CRITICAL DESIGNATION MAY BE NEEDED.

   THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA CONTAINED WITHIN THE ELEVATED
   AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
   AND 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. ACROSS THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND TOPOGRAPHIC
   INFLUENCES SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DRY...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN
   THE 0.75-1.00 INCH RANGE. THESE FORECAST VALUES MATCH FAIRLY WELL
   WITH LATEST GPS TPW SATELLITE ESTIMATES. FAST STORM MOTIONS AND DRY
   SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
   AND ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD ENCOURAGE NEW FIRE STARTS IN THE
   PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: August 29, 2015
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