Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed May 23 15:13:03 UTC 2018 (20180523 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20180523 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 231512

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

   Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

   Current forecast looks on track and no changes are necessary. See
   previous discussion for details.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0803 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

   The greatest risk of fire weather today will occur across portions
   of the Southwest and southern Rockies.  35-45 kt flow will continue
   to overspread these areas in response to a weakening mid-level low
   that will lift northward from the Great Basin into the northern
   Rockies.  At the surface, a dry airmass will remain in place from
   Arizona into western New Mexico and spread east/northeast during the
   day toward central New Mexico and south-central Colorado along and
   west of a weak lee surface trough.  The net result of this pattern
   is elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region.

   ...Eastern Arizona, western/central New Mexico, and southern
   Surface flow will range from 10-20 mph in most areas during peak
   heating in response to vertical mixing and a modest surface pressure
   gradient.  Additionally, as temperatures rise through the 70s and
   80s F, RH values will fall below 15% areawide and fall into the
   single digits across central New Mexico and vicinity.  Localized
   areas of 20+ mph surface winds will develop in terrain-favored areas
   from central New Mexico northward to south-central Colorado.  These
   conditions, in conjunction with dry fuels and areas of continued
   drought, are consistent with elevated fire weather, and an attendant
   delineation remains in place.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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