Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Apr 23 16:43:03 UTC 2014 (20140423 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20140423 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 185,578 3,351,834 El Paso, TX...Albuquerque, NM...Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Farmington, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231642

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 231700Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

   ..SMITH.. 04/23/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...BUT A TRAILING BELT OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND
   FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. FARTHER W...A
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE
   INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
   LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER...WITH AN ATTENDANT LEE
   TROUGH AND DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX. A
   COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SWD LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
   SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING SURROUNDING
   THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING /ENHANCED VIA DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS/ AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/. RH VALUES AS LOW
   AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY OVER ERN NM...WHILE GENERALLY
   RANGING FROM 10-15 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL BE DELINEATED TO THE E BY A DRYLINE/LEE SFC TROUGH
   BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. MEANWHILE...A
   COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NERN CO BY EARLY EVENING...AND RESULT IN AN
   ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE N.

   ...HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS...
   STRONG POST-FRONTAL WLY-NWLY WINDS /25-35 MPH/ WILL OVERSPREAD ERN
   WY AND WRN NEB...AND EVENTUALLY NERN CO/NWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES...SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
   ENHANCED BY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL YIELD RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AS
   TEMPERATURES REACH THE 60S-70S F. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ...VA...NRN NC...
   A BELT OF NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSPORT A VERY DRY AIR MASS
   INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES AOB 0.4 INCH.
   MUCH OF VA/NRN NC WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SURROUNDING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
   COASTAL MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S/70S F WITHIN A
   DOWNSLOPE REGIME E OF THE APPALACHIANS...YIELDING RH VALUES RANGING
   FROM THE MID-20S TO LOW-30S.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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