Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Jun 25 07:34:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 250730 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through central CA will continue moving north-northeastward into northern CA and southern OR, ahead of a stronger shortwave trough farther off the northern CA coast. Increased mid-level moisture and forcing for ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development across northern CA and central OR (discussed in more detail below). Farther east, upper troughing currently extending from the northern Rockies to the Northeast and covering much of the central and eastern CONUS will persist throughout the day while gradually shifting eastward. ...Northern CA/Central OR... Antecedent dry airmass and deep boundary-layer mixing will contribute to highs in the upper 90s/low 100s and afternoon RH values in the teens. Despite these dry low levels, aforementioned lead shortwave trough is expected to move through the region during the afternoon, helping to moisten the mid levels. Resulting modest instability coupled with forcing for ascent and favorable orographic circulations will result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Storm motions will not be particularly fast but the warm and dry boundary-layer and high cloud bases will contribute to significant sub-cloud evaporation of any precipitation, resulting in low precipitation totals at the surface. These dry thunderstorms amidst modestly dry fuels will support an increased fire weather threat. ...Northern Plains... Anomalously dry fuels exist across the region due to the below-average rainfall and dry conditions the area has experienced for the past 30 days. Northwesterly winds near 15 mph and minimum RH values around 20-25% will contribute to locally elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon over the region. Below-average temperatures should keep RH values above critical values except on a spotty/localized basis. ..Mosier.. 06/25/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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