Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Apr 26 16:45:04 UTC 2017 (20170426 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170426 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 47,251 1,292,164 Laredo, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...Del Rio, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261640

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE BIG BEND REGION OF
   TEXAS...EXTENDING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH
   TEXAS...

   The critical area along the middle Rio Grande Valley has been
   expanded westward into the Big Bend region of TX. 16Z surface
   observations indicate elevated to borderline critical conditions are
   already occurring across this area along/ahead of a cold front. RH
   values will likely fall into the 10-15% range for a few hours this
   afternoon, and strong/gusty northwesterly winds of 20-25 mph will be
   common.

   A southeastward expansion into deep south TX has also been made to
   the critical delineation based on latest short-term guidance and
   fuel information. Across this region, sustained winds of 20-25 mph
   are expected as temperatures warm into the 90s/low 100s and RH
   values fall below 20%. Although green-up of most fuels has occurred
   across south TX, lack of recent precipitation has allowed fine fuels
   to become receptive to large fire starts.

   Across portions of eastern AZ into southern NM, locally critical
   fire weather conditions may occur, but only isolated/brief instances
   of sustained winds above 20 mph preclude a critical area with this
   update.

   An elevated area has been introduced across parts of the central FL
   peninsula per recent surface observations, short-term guidance, and
   fuel info. Although low-level flow is forecast to remain weak,
   sustained winds around 10 mph, RH values falling into the 30-40%
   range, and dry fuels due to persistent drought support the elevated
   designation.

   ..Gleason.. 04/26/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   An intense mid/upper level trough over the southern High Plains will
   eject east across TX today to the mid-MS/lower OH River Valley by
   early Thursday morning. Strong deep-layer west/northwesterly flow
   will persist from the southwestern deserts into the southern Plains.
   While severe storms are expected across parts of the Ozarks and
   mid-to-lower MS Valley ahead of the trough, elevated to critical
   fire weather conditions are expected across much of AZ/NM and into
   parts of western and southern TX.

   ...Much of AZ/NM into western and southern TX...

   Widespread elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected
   across parts of central and eastern AZ into much of NM.  RH values
   will be low, from 10-20 percent and west to northwesterly surface
   winds will range from 15-20 mph with higher gusts. Concerns of
   longevity of critical conditions and spotty nature of the strongest
   wind speeds will preclude upgrades to critical across parts of
   southeast AZ/southwest NM into parts of east-central NM. 
   Additionally, uncertainty in available fuels exists across eastern
   NM due to ongoing green-up.

   Further southeast into western and southern TX, gusty winds will be
   enhanced as a cold front drops southward across central into
   southern TX during the afternoon. Northwesterly surface winds of
   20-25 mph with higher gusts are expected. As high temperatures warm
   into the mid 80s to mid 90s, RH values will fall into the 10-15
   percent range. Further south into south TX, there are concerns over
   fuel receptiveness and while gusty winds and low RH conditions will
   exist, will not upgrade this region given uncertainty in fuel
   conditions.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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