Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Mar 23 16:00:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 231558 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SE CO...SW KS...NE NM...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Portions of the Southern Plains... Only change to the outlook areas is a slight eastward expansion of elevated concerns across western Oklahoma and parts of northwest Texas. Otherwise, critical to extremely critical conditions are still expected from southern New Mexico to the central High Plains today, with sustained winds around 20-35 mph and RH values around 8-15% amidst very dry fuels. Owing to these conditions, uncontrolled fires will likely exhibit erratic behavior with rapid rates of spread today. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Locally elevated concerns are possible over the central Peninsula today, as sustained winds around 10 mph combine with RH values below 30%. Despite recent rainfall across parts of the region, fuels remain dry in a few localized areas that did not realize wetting rainfall, and these areas may observe an uptick in fire-weather concerns. ..Picca.. 03/23/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the High Plains early this morning will erode today as a shortwave trough moves eastward from CA to the southern Plains. A 50-75 kt west-southwesterly mid-level speed maximum associated with this shortwave trough will overspread the southern/central High Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low will develop east-southeastward from eastern CO to central KS by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward, likely reaching the vicinity of the TX/OK border late this afternoon. A trailing Pacific cold front attendant to the surface low will sweep southeastward across the southern/central High Plains this evening and overnight. ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains... Strong/gusty west-southwesterly winds will develop behind the eastward-mixing dryline across parts of the central and southern High Plains later this morning and afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph will occur across this region, with the strongest winds expected beneath the core of a mid-level jet moving over northeastern NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, and vicinity. Higher gusts to 40-50 mph also appear likely. A dry low-level airmass is present behind the dryline, and downslope warming/drying of this airmass coupled with temperatures soaring into the 80s to around 90 will support RH values becoming lowered into the 8-15% range across parts of eastern NM/southeastern CO into southwestern KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK. With dry to very dry fuels present, large to extreme fire spread is anticipated given the expected meteorological conditions. The most favorable overlap of sustained winds around 30-35 mph, sub-10% RH values, and ongoing severe to extreme drought remains apparent across the extremely critical risk area, which has been extended eastward slightly across far southwestern KS and the TX/OK Panhandles to better align with the low-level thermal axis. Generally minor changes have been made to the surrounding critical area based off the forecast position of the dryline late this afternoon. Elevated conditions will occur across parts of the Southwest and a slightly larger portion of the southern/central High Plains, with RH values of 15-25% and/or slightly weaker sustained winds precluding an even larger critical area. ...Portions of the FL Peninsula... A dry airmass will persist over much of the FL Peninsula today. With strong diurnal heating expected, RH values will likely fall into the 20-35% range for a majority of this area. However, wind speeds are forecast to be generally weak (less than 10 mph), which precludes the introduction of an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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