Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Jun 25 07:34:03 UTC 2017 (20170625 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170625 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 250730

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   Shortwave trough currently moving through central CA will continue
   moving north-northeastward into northern CA and southern OR, ahead
   of a stronger shortwave trough farther off the northern CA coast.
   Increased mid-level moisture and forcing for ascent will contribute
   to thunderstorm development across northern CA and central OR
   (discussed in more detail below). Farther east, upper troughing
   currently extending from the northern Rockies to the Northeast and
   covering much of the central and eastern CONUS will persist
   throughout the day while gradually shifting eastward.

   ...Northern CA/Central OR...
   Antecedent dry airmass and deep boundary-layer mixing will
   contribute to highs in the upper 90s/low 100s and afternoon RH
   values in the teens. Despite these dry low levels, aforementioned
   lead shortwave trough is expected to move through the region during
   the afternoon, helping to moisten the mid levels. Resulting modest
   instability coupled with forcing for ascent and favorable orographic
   circulations will result in isolated to widely scattered
   thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Storm motions will
   not be particularly fast but the warm and dry boundary-layer and
   high cloud bases will contribute to significant sub-cloud
   evaporation of any precipitation, resulting in low precipitation
   totals at the surface. These dry thunderstorms amidst modestly dry
   fuels will support an increased fire weather threat.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Anomalously dry fuels exist across the region due to the
   below-average rainfall and dry conditions the area has experienced
   for the past 30 days. Northwesterly winds near 15 mph and minimum RH
   values around 20-25% will contribute to locally elevated fire
   weather conditions this afternoon over the region. Below-average
   temperatures should keep RH values above critical values except on a
   spotty/localized basis.

   ..Mosier.. 06/25/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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