Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Nov 27 16:05:03 UTC 2014 (20141127 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20141127 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271603

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

   VALID 271700Z - 281200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY ELEVATED
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WILL EXIST IN SRN FL...PRIMARILY SE
   OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER-MID
   70S...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...WILL
   RESULT IN RH VALUES NEAR 30-35 PERCENT. WHILE MOST OF FL HAS
   EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE WETTING RAINS RECENTLY...THIS PORTION OF FL
   HAS GENERALLY EXPERIENCED BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 7-14
   DAYS. HOWEVER...ONLY LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...AS
   THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MARGINAL SUSTAINED WIND VALUES SHOULD
   BE BRIEF/SPOTTY. AS SUCH...NO DELINEATION WILL BE INTRODUCED.

   ..PICCA.. 11/27/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0219 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TREND MORE ZONAL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST STATES AND WRN CONUS RIDGING
   DEAMPLIFIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE SEWD
   ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE
   LEE TROUGHING EXPANDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 
    
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL
   RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN
   CA BUT WEAK WINDS WILL TEMPER A GREATER THREAT. SOME LOCALLY
   ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS SRN AL/GA AND FL AS A
   POST-FRONTAL REGIME USHERS IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS -- PW VALUES AROUND
   0.20 INCH...WHICH IS AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE -- AND WINDS
   APPROACH 15 MPH. 

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
   THROUGHOUT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
   60S WITH MIN RH VALUES LIKELY FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. GENERALLY
   MARGINAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MOIST FUELS WILL MITIGATE MUCH OF
   THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS
   ARE POSSIBLE.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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