Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Mar 23 16:00:02 UTC 2018 (20180323 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20180323 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 32,684 443,291 Amarillo, TX...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...
Critical 137,312 2,357,295 El Paso, TX...Lubbock, TX...Pueblo, CO...Odessa, TX...Las Cruces, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 231558

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

   Valid 231700Z - 241200Z


   ...Portions of the Southern Plains...
   Only change to the outlook areas is a slight eastward expansion of
   elevated concerns across western Oklahoma and parts of northwest
   Texas. Otherwise, critical to extremely critical conditions are
   still expected from southern New Mexico to the central High Plains
   today, with sustained winds around 20-35 mph and RH values around
   8-15% amidst very dry fuels. Owing to these conditions, uncontrolled
   fires will likely exhibit erratic behavior with rapid rates of
   spread today.

   ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
   Locally elevated concerns are possible over the central Peninsula
   today, as sustained winds around 10 mph combine with RH values below
   30%. Despite recent rainfall across parts of the region, fuels
   remain dry in a few localized areas that did not realize wetting
   rainfall, and these areas may observe an uptick in fire-weather

   ..Picca.. 03/23/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

   An upper ridge centered over the High Plains early this morning will
   erode today as a shortwave trough moves eastward from CA to the
   southern Plains. A 50-75 kt west-southwesterly mid-level speed
   maximum associated with this shortwave trough will overspread the
   southern/central High Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a low
   will develop east-southeastward from eastern CO to central KS by
   this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix
   eastward, likely reaching the vicinity of the TX/OK border late this
   afternoon. A trailing Pacific cold front attendant to the surface
   low will sweep southeastward across the southern/central High Plains
   this evening and overnight.

   ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
   Strong/gusty west-southwesterly winds will develop behind the
   eastward-mixing dryline across parts of the central and southern
   High Plains later this morning and afternoon. Sustained winds of
   20-35 mph will occur across this region, with the strongest winds
   expected beneath the core of a mid-level jet moving over
   northeastern NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, and vicinity. Higher gusts to
   40-50 mph also appear likely. A dry low-level airmass is present
   behind the dryline, and downslope warming/drying of this airmass
   coupled with temperatures soaring into the 80s to around 90 will
   support RH values becoming lowered into the 8-15% range across parts
   of eastern NM/southeastern CO into southwestern KS, the TX/OK
   Panhandles, west TX, and western OK. With dry to very dry fuels
   present, large to extreme fire spread is anticipated given the
   expected meteorological conditions.

   The most favorable overlap of sustained winds around 30-35 mph,
   sub-10% RH values, and ongoing severe to extreme drought remains
   apparent across the extremely critical risk area, which has been
   extended eastward slightly across far southwestern KS and the TX/OK
   Panhandles to better align with the low-level thermal axis.
   Generally minor changes have been made to the surrounding critical
   area based off the forecast position of the dryline late this
   afternoon. Elevated conditions will occur across parts of the
   Southwest and a slightly larger portion of the southern/central High
   Plains, with RH values of 15-25% and/or slightly weaker sustained
   winds precluding an even larger critical area.

   ...Portions of the FL Peninsula...
   A dry airmass will persist over much of the FL Peninsula today. With
   strong diurnal heating expected, RH values will likely fall into the
   20-35% range for a majority of this area. However, wind speeds are
   forecast to be generally weak (less than 10 mph), which precludes
   the introduction of an elevated area at this time.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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