Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Feb 10 16:31:02 UTC 2016 (20160210 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160210 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 42,763 2,228,677 Oklahoma City, OK...Amarillo, TX...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 101627

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

   VALID 101700Z - 111200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
   EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS STILL
   ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
   FROM 15 TO 25 MPH OCCUR AMIDST MIN RH VALUES FROM THE LOW TEENS TO
   THE MID 20S. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXISTS OVER
   THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN/W-CNTRL OK WHERE THE BEST ALIGNMENT
   BETWEEN THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASED FLOW ALOFT
   WILL OCCUR. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALSO LIKELY
   HERE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S /20 DEGREES ABOVE
   AVERAGE/. TO THE NE OF THIS REGION /ACROSS CNTRL OK/...CONFIDENCE IN
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS A BIT LOWER GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
   ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS AND MIN RH VALUES LIKELY AROUND 20 PERCENT.
   SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALSO EXISTS OVER PORTION OF
   THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE...LARGELY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   THE DURATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABOVE
   AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY FUELS...A CRITICAL RISK IS STILL
   WARRANTED ACROSS AREAS DELINEATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   OVERALL...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO EITHER THE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
   RISK AREAS.

   ...MOST OF AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE...NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
   NRN/CNTRL FL TODAY WITH MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20
   TO 30 PERCENT. PORTIONS OF NE FL MAY SEE RH VALUES FROM 15-2O
   PERCENT. SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
   AS THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT OVERLAPS WITH WLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH.
   HOWEVER...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
   50S /10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE/. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
   ONLY MARGINAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/10/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0258 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY...WITH A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BELT OF
   MID-LEVEL FROM IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS.  AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW WILL MIGRATE/DEVELOP
   QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...WITH A DOWNSLOPE REGIME IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE HIGH
   WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...PROMOTING A
   VERY WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH
   LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE IN THE
   SOUTHEAST...A COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...PROMOTING LOCALLY/BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE.

   ...A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
   KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON...WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL
   INCREASE FROM KANSAS/SOUTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
   TEXAS.  THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL PROMOTE
   WARMING/DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR TO THE
   SURFACE...RESULTING IN 20-25 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MUCH OF
   OKLAHOMA TODAY.  WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MUCH
   OF THIS AFTERNOON AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS IN THE AREA...A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

   FARTHER WEST...PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE DISPLACED FROM
   THE 30-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND
   OKLAHOMA TODAY.  A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF
   THIS AREA TODAY...BUT WIND FIELDS WILL BE MORE BORDERLINE FOR
   MEETING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THIS REGION. 
   NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80F...AND DRY FUELS IN THE
   REGION WILL SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...AN ELEVATED AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED
   PRIMARILY WHERE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS.  IN THESE AREAS...FUELS ARE
   DRY AND SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE GROWTH AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL
   TO AS LOW AS 9-10 PERCENT.  FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
   HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   WITH EASTERN EXTENT.  LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
   OCCUR FROM OSAGE COUNTY INTO THE TULSA METRO AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND THIS REGION WILL BE RE-EVALUATED LATER TODAY FOR A
   POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE.

   WITH TIME...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
   ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   SHIFTING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY COMPLICATE FIRE
   SUPPRESSION EFFORTS IN THOSE AREAS TODAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE
   NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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