Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed May 23 15:13:03 UTC 2018 (20180523 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20180523 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231512

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

   Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

   Current forecast looks on track and no changes are necessary. See
   previous discussion for details.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/23/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0803 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   The greatest risk of fire weather today will occur across portions
   of the Southwest and southern Rockies.  35-45 kt flow will continue
   to overspread these areas in response to a weakening mid-level low
   that will lift northward from the Great Basin into the northern
   Rockies.  At the surface, a dry airmass will remain in place from
   Arizona into western New Mexico and spread east/northeast during the
   day toward central New Mexico and south-central Colorado along and
   west of a weak lee surface trough.  The net result of this pattern
   is elevated fire weather conditions across much of the region.

   ...Eastern Arizona, western/central New Mexico, and southern
   Colorado...
   Surface flow will range from 10-20 mph in most areas during peak
   heating in response to vertical mixing and a modest surface pressure
   gradient.  Additionally, as temperatures rise through the 70s and
   80s F, RH values will fall below 15% areawide and fall into the
   single digits across central New Mexico and vicinity.  Localized
   areas of 20+ mph surface winds will develop in terrain-favored areas
   from central New Mexico northward to south-central Colorado.  These
   conditions, in conjunction with dry fuels and areas of continued
   drought, are consistent with elevated fire weather, and an attendant
   delineation remains in place.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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