Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri May 6 08:28:02 UTC 2016 (20160506 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160506 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 59,202 1,852,761 Albuquerque, NM...Las Cruces, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...Sierra Vista, AZ...South Valley, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060823

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
   AZ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NM...AND FAR WESTERN TX...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
   EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. FARTHER
   DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
   PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE
   MID-ATLANTIC. THE SFC RESPONSE WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH IN THE
   LEE OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL
   PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.
   ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE OZARKS TOWARDS
   THE GULF COAST.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...
   AS A CORRIDOR OF VIGOROUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
   IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
   WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 20-35 MPH
   WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES AROUND 10-15 PERCENT...AND THESE
   METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH DRY FUELS TO
   PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE-WX CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
   AZ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NM...AND PARTS OF FAR WESTERN TX. WHILE
   CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FARTHER
   NORTHEAST AS WELL...LESS-RECEPTIVE FUELS DUE TO ONGOING GREEN-UP
   SHOULD TEMPER THE THREAT SOME. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING WINDS WILL BE
   UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND RH VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 15
   PERCENT...ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONCERNS APPEAR PROBABLE. AS SUCH...THE
   ONGOING ELEVATED AREA IS EXPANDED FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.

   THE ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM AREA IS ALSO MAINTAINED WITH ONLY
   MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. INCREASING BACKGROUND ASCENT SHOULD OFFER ENOUGH
   COOLING/MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS SUCH THAT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL
   EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY QUICK
   STORM MOTIONS...PW VALUES AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCHES...AND DEEP/DRY
   SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL ENCOURAGE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC
   FIRE BEHAVIOR DUE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

   ...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN...WESTERN WI...
   ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
   TODAY...AS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS DRY
   LOW-LEVEL AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OZARKS CONTINUES
   TO STREAM NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20-30 PERCENT
   SHOULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE-WX THREAT
   SUFFICIENTLY SUCH THAT ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

   ..PICCA.. 05/06/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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