Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Aug 27 16:01:03 UTC 2015 (20150827 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150827 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Dry Tstm 56,022 461,627 Billings, MT...Bozeman, MT...Butte, MT...Helena, MT...Anaconda, MT...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271557

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1057 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

   VALID 271700Z - 281200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ID
   MOUNTAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN MT...

   ...PARTS OF NV/UT...ID...MT/WY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...

   THE SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM NV AND
   TRIMMED BACK TO ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS INTO
   SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
   FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM AREA ALSO HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO BETTER REFLECT WHERE
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ACROSS PARTS OF NV/UT
   AND WY...A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

   ...EASTERN WA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MT...

   NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE PREVIOUS
   DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/27/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER
   RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND A LARGE...SLOW-MOVING UPPER
   LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPREAD
   ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
   NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW
   EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WHILE A
   BROAD/DIFFUSE AREA OF WEAKNESS IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD WILL
   REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
   OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER RIDGE.  

   ...PARTS OF IDAHO/MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA/FAR
   NORTHWESTERN UTAH FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
   THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
   DEEPER LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS THAT HAS
   PERSISTED IN PARTS OF UTAH/COLORADO AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE
   PAST 2-3 DAYS.  AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...WEAK MID-LEVEL
   INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   POCKETS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS MOST
   CONCENTRATED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.  MUCH
   OF THE REGION REMAINED RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND FUELS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY DRY
   AND SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH.  THE CURRENT CRITICAL/SCATTERED
   DRY THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION REPRESENTS GREATEST CONFIDENCE AND
   CONCENTRATION OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING IN AREAS OF VERY DRY
   FUELS.  FARTHER WEST /IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES/...RECENT MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
   SPARSE TO CONTINUE AN ISOLATED DRY-THUNDER AREA.

   ...EASTERN WASHINGTON EASTWARD TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
   ELEVATED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY IN
   ADVANCE OF THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  A DRY
   AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH
   INSOLATION/VERTICAL MIXING AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTRIBUTING TO 10-15 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW /WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS/ AND 13-20 PERCENT SURFACE RH VALUES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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