Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Oct 2 07:30:03 UTC 2014 (20141002 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20141002 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 2,916 2,836,484 Oxnard, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Palmdale, CA...Thousand Oaks, CA...Simi Valley, CA...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020727

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN LOS ANGELES
   COUNTY AND CNTRL/SRN/ERN VENTURA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER THE CNTRL UNITED STATES...AS AN
   EMBEDDED IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...AND A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE SRN
   ROCKIES TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
   SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE W COAST VICINITY. IN RESPONSE TO THESE
   DEVELOPMENTS...SFC RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED/ENHANCED ACROSS THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN...BENEATH SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS.
   THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ENCOURAGE THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP DRY AIR
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS...WITH EARLY-MORNING GPS DATA
   INDICATING PW VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN.

   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   AS SFC RIDGING IS MAINTAINED/ENHANCED ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
   RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING ESTABLISHED TODAY.
   MEAN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SRN CA COAST AND
   CNTRL NV ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR 8-10 MB.

   A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURGE OF MODIFIED COOL AIR/HIGHER SFC PRESSURE
   INTO THE WRN MOJAVE DESERT/ANTELOPE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN
   AREA OF STRONG ENELY TO ELY SFC WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN
   LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND CNTRL/SRN/ERN VENTURA COUNTY.
   TERRAIN-CHANNELED FLOW IN THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 35-40 MPH --
   LOCALLY STRONGER THROUGH FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS. THIS EXPECTATION IS
   BACKED BY THE LATEST 4-KM AND 1.33-KM NAM OUTPUT ALONG WITH 4-KM
   AFWA ENSEMBLE AND SSEO OUTPUT...WHICH CAN ENHANCE THE RESOLUTION OF
   TERRAIN VARIABILITY AND BETTER DEPICT ITS EFFECT ON THE MESOSCALE
   FLOW PATTERN. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM 12Z THIS
   MORNING TO 20Z LATER TODAY...WITH WINDS WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE
   SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. AND...WITH DEEP DRY AIR COUPLED WITH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING OWING TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW...RH VALUES
   WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 4 TO 15 PERCENT FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH
   LITTLE TO NO RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...
   TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S THIS
   AFTERNOON...ENCOURAGING DIURNAL RH REDUCTIONS. FOR THESE REASONS...A
   CRITICAL AREA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN LOS ANGELES
   COUNTY AND CNTRL/SRN/ERN VENTURA COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN
   CA...AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA IS IN EFFECT. RH VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS
   IN THESE AREAS. NELY TO ELY SFC WINDS OF GENERALLY 15-20 MPH WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS -- STRONGEST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS --
   ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RH VALUES TO SUPPORT
   ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THESE
   LOCATIONS THAT SURROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL AREA IS EXPECTED
   TO PREVENT CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM OCCURRING ON
   ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY/MARGINAL BASIS.

   ..COHEN.. 10/02/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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