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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Apr 20, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 20 16:50:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150420 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150420 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201649

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER MO VALLEY...
   MODIFIED THE ELEVATED AREA OF THE REGION TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST
   RECENT GUIDANCE BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. COOL
   TEMPERATURES /LOW TO MID 50S/ CONTINUE TO BE THE FACTOR MOST
   PROHIBITIVE TO A GREATER FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...
   ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND
   80S...RH VALUES DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT...AND SWLY WINDS APPROACH
   15-20 MPH.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/20/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0347 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP...EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SRN/ERN
   ONTARIO...WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
   ALONG THE PLAINS...SOUTHEAST...AND EAST COAST. FARTHER WEST...A WEAK
   CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS ONSHORE SRN CA...WITH A RESULTANT PATTERN
   OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DIFLUENT FLOW OVER AZ/NM. 

   THE SFC RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING
   EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SERN STATES...WITH A LARGE
   OCCLUDED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. 

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER MO VALLEY...
   CONTINUING FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY...A DEEP CHANNEL OF ENHANCED NWLY
   FLOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDWEST. IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A WELL-MIXED
   BL...THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONG FLOW WILL YIELD W/NWLY SUSTAINED SFC
   WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH. FURTHERMORE...THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DRY AIR OVER THE
   REGION...WITH FCST PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.2-0.4 IN. THEREFORE...RH
   VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT /WITH SOME READINGS BELOW
   20 PERCENT/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE MO VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREA.
   CONSIDERING THAT FINE FUELS WILL BE PRE-CONDITIONED VIA THE
   DRY/WINDY DAY PRIOR TO THE PERIOD...AN ELEVATED DELINEATION HAS BEEN
   INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN SD...FAR NERN NE...AND NWRN
   IA.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...
   A DRY AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES AOB 0.4 IN/ WILL BE
   POSITIONED OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON D2/TUE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
   RESULT IN RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OCCURS...RESULTING FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...ROBUST
   BL MIXING WILL FAVOR SWLY SFC WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20 MPH.
   IN COMBINATION WITH DRY FUELS...THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
   AN ELEVATED FIRE-WX THREAT /WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS/ AND A
   DELINEATION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. FURTHERMORE...A CRITICAL AREA
   AROUND FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NM MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE IN
   STRONGER FLOW INCREASES.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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