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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Aug 31, 2016 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 31 19:09:02 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160831 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160831 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311904

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...

   A SMALL CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL/ERN NV FOR D2/THU. A RELATIVE MAXIMUM /AROUND 25-30 KT/ IN
   SWLY FLOW AT 700 MB WITHIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS
   IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA THU AFTERNOON...AND A CONFINED
   AREA OF STRONG/GUSTY SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH NOW APPEARS
   LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES OF
   10-15 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS...NECESSITATING THE CRITICAL
   DELINEATION.

   MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THERE
   APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN UT...ERN
   ID...AND WRN WY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. WILL
   DEFER INTRODUCTION OF A SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA AT THIS TIME
   PENDING ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM LATER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
   GUIDANCE.

   FINALLY...STRONG SLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS
   MUCH OF ERN MT...THE WRN DAKOTAS...AND WRN NEB ON D2/THU AS THE SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A LOW
   PRESSURE AREA ACROSS CNTRL MT STRENGTHENS. AT THIS TIME...RH VALUES
   ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT...BUT SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED WHERE FUELS ARE
   DRY ACROSS THIS REGION IF RH VALUES BECOME LOWERED MORE THAN
   CURRENTLY FORECAST.

   ..GLEASON.. 08/31/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NWRN
   CONUS...AND WILL EXPERIENCE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OVER THE PACIFIC NW
   AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ADVANCES SEWD FROM THE E PACIFIC AND ONSHORE.
   THIS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG FLOW TRAVERSING
   PORTIONS OF THE NWRN CONUS...WITH PERIPHERALLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   SWLYS EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN AND
   VICINITY.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND VICINITY...
   ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL/NRN NV...NWRN UT...NERN CA...SERN ORE...SRN ID...AND SWRN MT.
   SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
   EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT AMIDST DRY
   FUELS...AS VERTICAL MIXING BECOMES DIURNALLY ENHANCED. THE LACK OF
   STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER AREAS OF LOW RH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE
   CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER RISK.

   ALSO...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NV...NRN UT...ERN ID...WRN WY...AND SWRN
   MT...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS BECOME ENHANCED AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. GIVEN PW AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH...COUPLED WITH
   DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND GIVEN MODERATE STORM
   MOTIONS...A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
   STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT THE DRY-THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE TO ISOLATED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: August 31, 2016
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