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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3-8 FW Outlook >
Apr 24, 2014 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 24 08:58:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140424 0700Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140424 0700Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 115,710 2,203,571 Henderson, NV...Lubbock, TX...N. Las Vegas, NV...Amarillo, TX...Flagstaff, AZ...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240856

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NM...WRN TX
   PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFY THIS
   PERIOD...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING MIDLEVEL FLOW AND JET STREAK REACHING
   SRN CA BY 12Z SAT. A PRECEDING BELT OF SWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
   LEE SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ERN CO. A LARGE AREA
   OF PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A SFC LOW
   EVENTUALLY BECOMING DOMINANT OVER UT EARLY SAT. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
   TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THIS
   PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES/PLAINS.

   ...MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AHEAD
   OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH...WITH 25-40 KT OF 700 MB
   FLOW BECOMING COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE CENTERED OVER TWO AREAS ATTM.

   /1/. OVER THE NRN AZ WWD TO THE CO RIVER VALLEY...SWLY WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/...PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A
   TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER UT.
   DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL
   YIELD RH VALUES FROM 10 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO 15
   PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN AZ. ANY SUBSTANTIAL
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER
   00Z/SAT.

   /2/. OVER CNTRL NM EWD INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...A
   LEE SFC LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER E-CNTRL CO...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING GENERALLY SWD OVER THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. STRONG SWLY FLOW /20-25 MPH/ WILL
   DEVELOP W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ENHANCING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING/DRYING/WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
   MID-80S TO PERHAPS LOW-90S F...YIELDING RH VALUES RANGING FROM 5-12
   PERCENT.

   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL RISK AREAS...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY/SPOTTY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SERN AZ AND WRN NM. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MARGINAL
   /NEAR 20 MPH/ OVER THIS AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS
   THE GREAT BASIN INTO S-CNTRL WY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOLER
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY
   LOW RH VALUES.

   ..ROGERS.. 04/24/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: April 24, 2014
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