Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Nov 19 20:01:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 192000 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Central High Plains... An elevated area has been introduced across portions of the central High Plains. Strong west-northwesterly downslope flow will combine with temperatures warming into the 50s/lower 60s to result in elevated to potentially critical wind/RH conditions across this area. The best chance of critical conditions is across portions of southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle and perhaps northwest KS. However, due to lingering uncertainty regarding fuel conditions and the southern/eastern extent of critical wind/RH, no critical delineation has been made at this time. ...East-central NM into portions of west TX and south-central CO... Critical conditions still appear possible across portions of east-central NM, with elevated conditions extending eastward into portions of west TX and the southern TX Panhandle. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding this threat. The elevated area has been expanded into portions of south-central CO, where locally enhanced downslope flow will result in the potential for elevated conditions during the afternoon. ...Portions of north TX...OK...central/eastern KS... Strong south-southwesterly winds are expected on Monday from western north TX northeast into eastern KS, as the low-level jet increases in response to deepening low pressure well to the north across the southern Canadian prairies. With very limited moisture return expected, RH values may drop to around 30% in conjunction with the strengthening low-level flow. There is some potential for RH to drop even lower, which would result in an increased risk of elevated fire weather conditions, and an elevated delineation may eventually be needed for portions of this area. ..Dean.. 11/19/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/ ...Synopsis... The large-scale mid-level pattern is forecast to undergo amplification on Monday as a ridge builds northward across the west. In between, strong northwest flow will take shape across the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains, particularly the southern Rockies. At the surface, the lee trough across the High Plains will begin to move east as a surface front pushes south through the Plains. ...East-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle... Downslope warming and drying from northwest flow will result in relative humidity falling into the single digits to lower teens. At the same time, the combination of vertical mixing, enhanced mid-level flow overhead, and the lingering effects of the lee trough will result in strong, gusty surface winds -- potentially in excess of 30 mph. This will result in elevated-to-critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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