Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Jan 16 18:31:03 UTC 2018 (20180116 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180116 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 161830

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


   Locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur Wednesday
   afternoon across parts of the FL Panhandle. High temperatures across
   this region are expected to remain cool, generally in the mid to
   upper 40s, owing to the passage of a cold front on Day 1/Tuesday.
   Still, a very dry post-frontal airmass coupled with modest diurnal
   heating may allow RH values to fall into the 25-30% range for a
   couple of hours Wednesday afternoon. Northwesterly surface winds
   should modestly increase to around 10-15 mph in combination with the
   marginally lowered RH values to support locally elevated fire
   weather conditions where fuels are dry.

   However, there is some uncertainty regarding light post-frontal
   precipitation potential across parts of the FL Panhandle late Day
   1/Tuesday into early Day 2/Wednesday. Given this uncertainty, and
   the marginal forecast winds/lowered RH values, will defer possible
   introduction of an elevated area to a future update.

   ..Gleason.. 01/16/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

   The highly amplified deep-layer trough is forecast to exit the
   eastern half of the CONUS throughout the period. To the west,
   another shortwave trough will enter the Pacific Northwest, with a
   ridge developing over the northern Rockies. At the surface, high
   pressure will build into the upper Great Basin, resulting in a
   surface pressure gradient that may allow offshore winds of 10-20 mph
   and lowered RH to develop briefly across southern CA late Wednesday
   night into early Thursday morning. However, recent heavy rainfall in
   this region has rendered fuels generally unreceptive to large-fire
   potential, and therefore no areas have been highlighted.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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