Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Apr 15 18:01:03 UTC 2014 (20140415 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140415 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 132,754 2,521,277 El Paso, TX...Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Flagstaff, AZ...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151800

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF ERN AZ...WRN/SRN NM...W
   TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK...

   ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS
   BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON
   TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0401 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...AS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
   TROUGH POSITION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
   THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
   LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LEAD
   SYSTEM MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.

   ...DESERT SOUTHWEST ENEWD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   A MODEST INCREASE IN WLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY
   AIRMASS TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM ERN AZ INTO
   WRN/SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED
   AS RH VALUES DROP TO 5-15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST
   FROM THE TX S PLAINS INTO SWRN OK...A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
   DEVELOP...WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED AS MIXING
   DEEPENS WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS. RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT WILL
   COMBINE WITH THESE WINDS TO RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. 

   FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NORTHEAST INTO CNTRL/ERN KS...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
   CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE DRY
   LOW-LEVEL JET REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH RH WILL BE
   MORE MARGINAL THAN FOR AREAS FURTHER TO THE SW. THE ELEVATED AREA
   HAS ONLY BEEN EXTENDED TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...WITH AREAS FURTHER
   EAST AND NORTH LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home