Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed May 4 09:19:02 UTC 2016 (20160504 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160504 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 31,712 5,330,398 Phoenix, AZ...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Glendale, AZ...Chandler, AZ...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040914

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0414 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AZ...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE OVER BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS ON
   D2/THU...WITH UPPER RIDGING PROMINENT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. ONLY A
   SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
   THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN THROUGH THU EVENING. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...A MID-LEVEL
   SPEED MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST
   COAST WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL THU AFTERNOON.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN/CNTRL AZ...AND FAR
   SWRN NM...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ON D2/THU
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AZ. STRONG/GUSTY SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF
   20-30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MAXIMIZED AND ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ARE
   TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS THIS REGION...RH
   VALUES SHOULD EASILY PLUMMET BELOW 15 PERCENT...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7
   PERCENT LOCALLY. LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FINE
   FUELS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AZ.
   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL DELINEATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...A
   LARGER PORTION OF AZ...AND FAR SWRN NM. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
   ELEVATED DELINEATION IS CONSTRAINED BY GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS.
   AN EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA FURTHER E INTO THE REMAINDER OF
   SERN AZ AND FAR SWRN NM MAY BE NEEDED IN A LATER UPDATE IF CURRENT
   MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL...
   BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE ADVANCED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
   COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE D2/THU PERIOD...GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS
   SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL THU AFTERNOON IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RH VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
   WHILE LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FINE FUELS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE
   TO FIRE STARTS FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THAT DID NOT RECEIVE
   SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ON D1/WED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE
   ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED AREA AT
   THIS TIME.

   ..GLEASON.. 05/04/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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