Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu May 25 06:49:03 UTC 2017 (20170525 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170525 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 141,721 3,748,488 El Paso, TX...Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...Las Cruces, NM...Casas Adobes, AZ...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250644

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...

   ...Synopsis...
   A series of shortwave troughs are expected to move through the
   broadly cyclonic flow extending from central Canada across much of
   the western CONUS. The strongest of these shortwave trough will move
   from the Pacific Northwest southeastward into the Great Basin while
   a more subtle shortwave trough moves quickly across Southwest and
   into the central Plains. At the surface, low initially over central
   OK is expected to drift eastward while weakening and cyclogenesis is
   likely during the late afternoon across southeast CO/northeast NM. A
   dryline will likely extend southeastward from this low to another
   weak low in northwest TX, continuing southward from this secondary
   low southwestward into the Edwards Plateau.

   ...Southwest...
   Very dry conditions are expected behind the dryline mentioned in the
   synopsis as a deep mixing within the antecedent airmass supports
   afternoon RH values in the single-digits from eastern AZ across much
   of NM. Additionally, the shortwave trough moving through the region
   will enhanced mid-level flow, which, when combined with deep
   boundary-layer mixing and a tight surface pressure gradient, will
   support gusty westerly winds. Sustained winds from 20-30 mph are
   anticipated with higher gusts. Given the persistent dry conditions
   across the region, fuels will likely be receptive to fire spread and
   the resulting combination of favorable fire weather conditions and
   dry fuels will support a critical fire weather threat.

   ..Mosier.. 05/25/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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