Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Sep 19 16:31:02 UTC 2014 (20140919 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140919 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191629

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...ALONG AND AROUND THE ORE/WA BORDER...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   NRN PLAINS WILL TRANSITION EWD WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE ORE
   COAST STRENGTHENS. AS A RESULT...DESPITE THE HIGHS EWD
   MOVEMENT...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ENHANCED OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
   THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FROM 7 TO 10
   DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT.
   CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY ISOLATED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS BUT GIVEN MODEL TENDENCIES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND SPEEDS
   AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO DELINEATE AN ELEVATED
   AREA WITH THIS FORECAST.

   ..MOSIER.. 09/19/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0500 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE
   PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH
   CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
   SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE
   WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL
   TROUGH.

   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UNITED STATES...A
   WEAK TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
   CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
   SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST. THIS INCREASING SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
   BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW. AT THIS TIME...RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
   REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   HOWEVER...AN ELEVATED AREA COULD BECOME NECESSARY SHOULD LOWER
   RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES BECOME EXPECTED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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