Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Aug 1 19:48:04 UTC 2014 (20140801 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140801 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Dry Tstm 18,837 66,399 La Grande, OR...Baker City, OR...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011946

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN ORE...

   CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SUFFICIENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
   SATURDAY TO INTRODUCE A SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER NERN
   ORE /SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW/.  WHILE THERE MIGHT BE SOME WET
   THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE AREA...THE OVERALL EXPECTED NUMBER
   OF CG STRIKES IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY FUELS WARRANTS A CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION.  THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA INTO CENTRAL ID...WHERE LOW PW VALUES
   /AROUND 0.5 INCH/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME STORMS FROM PRODUCING
   WETTING RAINS.

   ..JIRAK.. 08/01/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0458 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER
   RIDGE INFLUENCES THE WRN STATES.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW STATES ON SATURDAY AND PROMOTE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NWRN GREAT BASIN NWD TO THE WA/ID/BC
   BORDER.  WARM TO HOT TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW
   WILL AID IN SUPPORTING A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE ERN HALVES
   OF ORE/WA AND INTO NRN NV AND WRN ID.

   ...ERN ORE AND WA / WRN ID / NRN NV...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH --INITIALLY OVER THE ERN PACIFIC ON
   FRIDAY-- IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WA/ORE ON SATURDAY AND GLANCE
   AREAS FARTHER S OVER THE NWRN NV.  ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
   FEATURE AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL FAVOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY PEAKING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOWER- TO MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS.  CONCERNS
   REGARDING RELATIVELY HIGH PW /AROUND 1 INCH/ IN PARTS OF THE AREA
   WILL PROMOTE A MIX OF SOME WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORM MODES. 
   CONVERSELY...FASTER STORM MOTIONS THAN THE DAY 1 /FRIDAY/ FORECAST
   MAY RESULT IN SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
   PORTIONS OF THIS GENERAL REGION.  A LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS --DUE TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY-- BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LOW AT THIS TIME TO
   NOT HIGHLIGHT AN AREA YET.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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