Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Feb 20 19:39:03 UTC 2017 (20170220 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170220 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201934

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   Only minor changes have been made to the periphery of the elevated
   areas.

   ...Front range of Colorado...
   Latest guidance suggests that relative humidity will fall into the
   low teens, with the potential for single digits. Thus, despite
   modest surface winds, have pulled the elevated farther south.

   ...Southwest Kansas northeast to south-central Nebraska...
   Modest southwest winds will combine with a dry airmass to support
   elevated fire-weather conditions. This forecast expands the initial
   elevated area to the southwest and northeast to better align with
   the belt of relatively enhanced southwest surface flow.

   ..Marsh.. 02/20/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel wind-speed maximum is forecast to extend from portions of
   coastal CA to the Central States, while a trough approaches northern
   and central parts of the West Coast from the eastern Pacific. Lee
   surface troughing will become established over portions of the
   northern and central High Plains. These features will be associated
   with two Elevated fire-weather areas subsequently discussed, while
   recent precipitation between and north of these areas may limit the
   fire-weather risk.

   ...Portions of southeast WY, north-central/northeast CO, western
   NE...
   Enhanced downslope winds extending off the central Rockies will
   support warming/drying over the adjacent High Plains. Westerly winds
   of 15-25 mph are forecast to combine with RH around 12-20 percent in
   support of elevated to borderline-critical fire-weather conditions.
   At this time, the strongest winds are forecast to remain displaced
   to the north of the lowest RH, minimizing the overlap of critically
   strong winds and RH and precluding Critical designation.

   ...Portions of western/central KS into south-central NE...
   A relatively enhanced low-level pressure gradient east of the lee
   trough is forecast to support southwesterly surface winds of 15-18
   mph. With a warm air mass in place and a dearth of moisture return,
   vertical mixing will encourage RH values falling to around 12-20
   percent. While elevated fire-weather conditions are expected,
   present indications are that critically strong winds will be
   unlikely.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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