Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Nov 19 20:01:03 UTC 2017 (20171119 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20171119 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 7,239 6,391 No Major Population Center in Risk Area

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 192000

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

   ...Central High Plains...
   An elevated area has been introduced across portions of the central
   High Plains. Strong west-northwesterly downslope flow will combine
   with temperatures warming into the 50s/lower 60s to result in
   elevated to potentially critical wind/RH conditions across this
   area. The best chance of critical conditions is across portions of
   southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle and perhaps
   northwest KS. However, due to lingering uncertainty regarding fuel
   conditions and the southern/eastern extent of critical wind/RH, no
   critical delineation has been made at this time. 

   ...East-central NM into portions of west TX and south-central CO...
   Critical conditions still appear possible across portions of
   east-central NM, with elevated conditions extending eastward into
   portions of west TX and the southern TX Panhandle. See the previous
   discussion below for more details regarding this threat. The
   elevated area has been expanded into portions of south-central CO,
   where locally enhanced downslope flow will result in the potential
   for elevated conditions during the afternoon. 

   ...Portions of north TX...OK...central/eastern KS...
   Strong south-southwesterly winds are expected on Monday from western
   north TX northeast into eastern KS, as the low-level jet increases
   in response to deepening low pressure well to the north across the
   southern Canadian prairies. With very limited moisture return
   expected, RH values may drop to around 30% in conjunction with the
   strengthening low-level flow. There is some potential for RH to drop
   even lower, which would result in an increased risk of elevated fire
   weather conditions, and an elevated delineation may eventually be
   needed for portions of this area.

   ..Dean.. 11/19/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   The large-scale mid-level pattern is forecast to undergo
   amplification on Monday as a ridge builds northward across the west.
   In between, strong northwest flow will take shape across the leeward
   side of the Rocky Mountains, particularly the southern Rockies. At
   the surface, the lee trough across the High Plains will begin to
   move east as a surface front pushes south through the Plains.

   ...East-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle...
   Downslope warming and drying from northwest flow will result in
   relative humidity falling into the single digits to lower teens. At
   the same time, the combination of vertical mixing, enhanced
   mid-level flow overhead, and the lingering effects of the lee trough
   will result in strong, gusty surface winds -- potentially in excess
   of 30 mph. This will result in elevated-to-critical fire-weather
   conditions during the afternoon.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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