Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Mar 29 17:32:03 UTC 2015 (20150329 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150329 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291730

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   AN EWD EXPANSION TO THE ELEVATED AREA FOR D2/MON WAS MADE ACROSS A
   PORTION OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...AS LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS A COMBINATION OF STRONG/GUSTY WLY TO NWLY WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY REDUCED RH VALUES MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS MON AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THIS AREA. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ANY MORE THAN BRIEF...
   LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS OCCURRING FOR ANY PORTION OF THE
   ELEVATED AREA PRECLUDES THE ADDITION OF A CRITICAL AREA WITH THIS
   UPDATE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/29/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0318 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE SEWD
   THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IN
   THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE...A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL MOVE SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
   FARTHER W...UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS RIDGING BUILD
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
   NW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGHING
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. INCREASED SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
   MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS FROM THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY...
   DESPITE DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS -- SWLY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS AND NWLY ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY -- DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND AID IN
   DROPPING RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NRN CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY.
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 25 MPH AROUND THE
   NEB/IA BORDER AND NEAR 20 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
   RESULTING JUXTAPOSITION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH IS EXPECTED TO
   RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXTENDING
   FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. SOME LOCALLY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS PRECLUDES A THREAT DELINEATION WITH
   THIS FORECAST.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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