Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Sep 24 17:20:03 UTC 2016 (20160924 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160924 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 14,947 10,601,428 Los Angeles, CA...Riverside, CA...Glendale, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Ontario, CA...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241716

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   SCENARIO OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST /DISCUSSION BELOW/
   REMAINS VALID AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING STRONGEST WINDS ARE
   ANTICIPATED AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE PERIOD - I.E. AROUND 12Z
   SUN AND AGAIN AROUND 12Z MON -- WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL REDUCTION
   DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS ANTICIPATED
   SUNDAY...LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WAS TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
   SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN AN ELEVATED DELINEATION WHERE WARM AND BREEZY
   CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
   PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS PARTICULARLY EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   BREEZY NWLY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE DRY...POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
   BUT RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
   ADDITIONALLY...THE OVERALL DURATION OF OVERLAPPING DRY AND WINDY
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 3 HOURS. THESE FACTORS WILL ACT
   TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN
   ELEVATED DELINEATION WITH THIS FORECAST.

   ..MOSIER.. 09/24/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL
   BECOME MORE SHEARED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS AN EMBEDDED CLOSED
   CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OPENS/LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
   ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
   DRIFT TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NORTH OF THIS LOW...RIDGING
   WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MANY
   LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...AS FAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   ALIGNS WITH A MAXIMIZING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
   OFFSHORE FLOW. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH /WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
   OF 45-55 MPH/ ARE LIKELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. RH VALUES
   SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE TEENS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH MIN
   VALUES AROUND 5-15 PERCENT AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S IN MANY
   LOCATIONS. WHILE WINDS MAY WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE
   MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
   NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...SUCH THAT BREEZY
   NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
   WHEN RH VALUES PLUMMET. AS SUCH...CRITICAL CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE IN BOTH HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS
   THROUGH PART OF THE DAY.

   NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT
   WILL ENCOURAGE ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WHERE RH RECOVERY IS POOR.

   ...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONCERNS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
   OF THE PERIOD...AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ENCOURAGES EASTERLY
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-25 MPH. POOR RH RECOVERY /WITH
   VALUES AROUND 15-30 PERCENT IN THE MORNING/ WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. WHILE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH
   THE DAY...ELEVATED CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN SOME SPOTS
   THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL POSITION OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA
   ON SUNDAY...WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH
   POSSIBLE. A DRY AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS
   WELL...WITH RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING TO AROUND 20-30 PERCENT. WHILE
   THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL
   CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REGION. AS SUCH...FUEL RECEPTIVENESS REMAINS IN
   QUESTION...PRECLUDING AN ELEVATED DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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