3-D Cloud Model
Ensemble Forecasts

15 July - 30 Sept 2001

As part of an ongoing research/evaluation effort associated with the SPC/NSSL Spring Program, Kim Elmore (NSSL) will be producing output from a 3-D cloud model ensemble within a portion of the Day 1 convective outlook area each day.  For more information on the ensemble runs, how they are created, and a basic tutorial, please refer to the  .pdf link below and/or view Kim's SPC seminar available on VHS tape (presented 7/11/01; see Bob Johns).

Elmore 3-D Cloud Model Ensemble (Description / Tutorial)

Supercell Criteria (Discription / Tutorial)

Submit your comments directly to Kim Elmore via this Link

Daily Discussion on Model Performance and
Forecast Interpretation




COMMAS 3-D Cloud Model Ensemble 1:
(Based on 00Z forecasts from ETA/ETAKF valid 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z)
 
GRAPHICS / PLOTS
DESCRIPTION 
Forecast Domain, Storm Duration, and Type Map of ensemble area and points which generated convection 
(color coded by storm duration), and storms that meet supercell criteria.
Maximum Upward Vertical Velocity Time series of max vertical velocity for each ensemble member.
Convective Mode Predicted convective mode based on time series of maximum vertical velocity.
Probability Density Function for Storm Lifetime pdf of storm lifetime.

 

COMMAS 3-D Cloud Model Ensemble 2:
(Based on forecasts from 00Z ETAKF and 06Z RUC20 valid 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z)
 
GRAPHICS / PLOTS
DESCRIPTION 
Forecast Domain, Storm Duration, and Type Map of ensemble area and points which generated convection 
(color coded by storm duration), and storms that meet supercell criteria.
Maximum Upward Vertical Velocity Time series of max vertical velocity for each ensemble member.
Convective Mode Predicted convective mode based on time series of maximum vertical velocity.
Probability Density Function for Storm Lifetime pdf of storm lifetime.

 

Super Ensemble:
(Combined output from Ensemble 1 and Ensemble 2)
 
GRAPHICS / PLOTS
DESCRIPTION 
Forecast Domain, Storm Duration, and Type Map of ensemble area and points which generated convection 
(color coded by storm duration), and storms that meet supercell criteria.
Maximum Upward Vertical Velocity Time series of max vertical velocity for each ensemble member.
Convective Mode Predicted convective mode based on time series of maximum vertical velocity.
Probability Density Function for Storm Lifetime pdf of storm lifetime.


Archive Plots:

July 2001
August 2001
September 2001

Special Case:  24 October 2001