3-D Cloud Model Ensemble Forecasts 15 July - 30 Sept 2001

As part of an ongoing research/evaluation effort associated with the SPC/NSSL Spring Program, Kim Elmore (NSSL) will be producing output from a 3-D cloud model ensemble within a portion of the Day 1 convective outlook area each day.  For more information on the ensemble runs, how they are created, and a basic tutorial, please refer to the  .pdf link below and/or view Kim's SPC seminar available on VHS tape (presented 7/11/01; see Bob Johns). Elmore 3-D Cloud Model Ensemble (Description / Tutorial) Submit your comments directly to Kim Elmore via this Link

 

COMMAS 3-D Cloud Model Ensemble 1:
(Based on 00Z forecasts from ETA/ETAKF valid 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z)
 

GRAPHICS / PLOTS	DESCRIPTION
Forecast Domain and Storm Duration	Map of ensemble area and points which generated convection  (color coded by time of storm duration)
Maximum Upward Vertical Velocity	Time series of max vertical velocity for each ensemble member
Convective Mode	Predicted convective mode based on time series of max UVV
Probability Density Function for Storm Lifetime	Probability of storm lifetime
Supercell Criteria map	Correlation of vorticity and vertical motion

 
 

COMMAS 3-D Cloud Model Ensemble 2:
(Based on forecasts from 00Z ETAKF and 06Z RUC20 valid 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z)
 

GRAPHICS / PLOTS	DESCRIPTION
Forecast Domain and Storm Duration	Map of ensemble area and points which generated convection  (color coded by time of storm duration)
Maximum Upward Vertical Velocity	Time series of max vertical velocity for each ensemble member
Convective Mode	Predicted convective mode based on time series of max UVV
Probability Density Function for Storm Lifetime	Probability of storm lifetime
Supercell Criteria map	Correlation of vorticity and vertical motion

 
 

Super Ensemble:
(Combined output from Ensemble 1 and Ensemble 2)
 

GRAPHICS / PLOTS	DESCRIPTION
Forecast Domain and Storm Duration	Map of ensemble area and points which generated convection  (color coded by time of storm duration)
Maximum Upward Vertical Velocity	Time series of max vertical velocity for each ensemble member
Convective Mode	Predicted convective mode based on time series of max UVV
Probability Density Function for Storm Lifetime	Probability of storm lifetime
Supercell Criteria map	Correlation of vorticity and vertical motion

 

July 2001
August 2001
September 2001