SPC/NSSL Experimental Forecast for 20020621 Valid 1700-0100 UTC

Period 1: 20020621/17-19Z	Period 2: 20020621/19-21Z
Period 3: 20020621/21-23Z	Period 4: 20020621/23-01Z
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Forecast Issue Date: 20020621
Forecast Period: 1700-0100 UTC
Forecast Team: Hart/LaDue/Lynn
Visiting Scientist(s): BRAD FERRIER

..Synopsis..

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS...AND OVER MUCH OF TX AND SOUTHERN OK.

..Discussion..

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE IHOP DOMAIN TODAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
EXPECTED.  NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TODAY...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRIMARY INITIATION FOCI WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS OF CO/NM.
HOWEVER...OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF TX AND
SOUTHERN OK WHERE FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL BE MUCH LESS OBVIOUS.  MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT REVEAL ANY BOUNDARIES AND LATEST UNFILTERED
RADAR MOSAICS DO NOT SHOW FINELINES.  NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
 
 MODELS SEEM TO OVERDO PRECIP
OVER THE TX/OK AREA.  ETAKF AND RUC SEEM TO DO THE WORST JOB...WITH THE
ETA BEING A LITTLE BETTER.

Current Convective Activity: NONE
Convective Confidence for 17-19Z: 10
Convective Confidence for 19-21Z: 10
Convective Confidence for 21-23Z: 30
Convective Confidence for 23-01Z: 30

Expected Boundary Type: NONE
Severe Convective Confidence for 17-19Z: 0
Severe Convective Confidence for 19-21Z: 0
Severe Convective Confidence for 21-23Z: 10
Severe Convective Confidence for 23-01Z: 10
Expected Primary Severe Threat Type: DAMAGING WIND