SPC/NSSL Experimental Forecast for 20020622 Valid 0000-1200 UTC

Day 1: 00-12Z
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Forecast Issue Date: 20020621
Forecast Period: 0000-1200 UTC
Forecast Team: Hart/LaDue/Lynn
Visiting Scientist(s): BRAD FERRIER

..Synopsis..

EXTREMELY LOW POSSIBILITY FOR ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY IN IHOP DOMAIN
THIS PERIOD.  MODERATELY STRONG NOCTURNAL LLJ TO SET UP IN W KS/W NEB.

..Discussion..

PROSPECTS FOR MCS ACTIVITY WITHIN THE IHOP DOMAIN ARE VERY POOR THIS
PERIOD, AS THERE IS A DISTINCT LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS PRESENT.
WEAK UPSLOPE REGIME IN SE NM, IN PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP RATES, WEAK
CAP, AND ADEQUATE BL MOISTURE, IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD PERSIST BEYOND 22/00Z.
HOWEVER, MECHANISMS TO SUPPORT/ORGANIZE THIS ONGOING CONVECTION ARE NOT
DISCERNABLY PRESENT, LEADING TO AN EXPECTED DEMISE OF THE STORM CLUSTER
BEFORE 22/05Z.  850MB FLOW INTO SE NM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN (SELY30
KTS), AS NOCTURNAL LLJ FORMS BETWEEN 22/03Z AND 22/09Z, BUT LIKELY TOO
LATE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE PERSISTENCE.
 
 WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN WY IS
FORECAST TO SUPPORT INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING 850MB FLOW IN W KS/W NEB.
MOSTLY CLEAR AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT SKIES IN TX/OK PANHANDLES/W KS/W
NEB WILL SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL LLJ FORMATION (SLY 40-45 KTS)
ACROSS W KS/W NEB.
Convective Confidence for 00-03Z: 20
Convective Confidence for 03-06Z: 10
Convective Confidence for 06-09Z: 10
Convective Confidence for 09-12Z: 0