MKC AC 260101
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
REF WW 0498...VALID TIL 0300Z
REF WW 0499...VALID TIL 0300Z
REF WW 0500...VALID TIL 0300Z
REF WW 0501...VALID TIL 0300Z
REF WW 0502...VALID TIL 0300Z
REF WW 0503...VALID TIL 0600Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 E LAA 45 NNE GCK 35 WSW CNK 35 NE FNB 25 SE LNR 15 ENE JVL
30 WSW CGX 20 ESE DEC 10 WNW MDH 10 SE POF 35 SSW UNO 30 SSW JLN
10 SSE PNC 40 WSW END 15 S CSM 40 NNW ABI 45 WNW ABI 20 NNE BGS
55 NW BGS DHT 40 SSE LAA 55 E LAA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE ACY 10 N SBY 25 ENE RIC 45 W RIC 10 SE CHO 15 SSW MRB
10 W AOO 50 NW IPT 35 ENE BGM 20 SE MWN 20 SSW AUG 45 SE AUG

...CONT... 25 S PSM 20 ESE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW DMN
20 WNW SAD SOW 50 ENE SOW 45 NNW ONM 15 ESE ABQ 10 WSW SAF
45 N 4SL 25 W 4BL 15 WSW P38 40 SSE TPH 50 SE BIH 45 ESE FAT
30 ENE MER 35 WNW TVL 25 SSE MHS MHS 30 NNE MHS 30 WNW BFF
30 NNE SNY 30 W IML 35 W GLD 50 SSW GLD 55 N GCK 60 SSW HSI
10 SW RST 15 ENE AUW 25 N GRB 40 NW MKG 35 ESE CGX 25 SE MTO
35 SE MVN 20 W HOP 25 NE BNA 25 WSW LOZ 30 WSW HTS BFD 35 ENE MPV
HUL ...CONT... 45 S HUM 30 S ESF 25 SSW MLU 40 WNW GLH 10 NE LIT
40 NNW HOT 30 SE MLC 40 SE SPS 45 NE SJT 45 WNW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W INL 30 NNE FAR
35 S BIS 40 E MLS 60 SW GGW 60 W GGW 80 NW GGW.
--- SYNOPSIS ---
IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AROUND HUDSON BAY AREA VORTEX...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING
SEWD ACROSS SRN SASK/MANITOBA...AND EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS/MN. HEIGHT
GRADIENT IS ENHANCED BETWEEN THIS BELT AND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
INVOF SERN NM AND FAR W TX. CONVECTIVELY AIDED VORTICITY LOBE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO MO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS
CANADIAN MARITIMES.
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER EXTREME SERN ONT...WRN NY...SWWD ACROSS WV
IS PRECEDED BY A PARALLEL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE FROM SRN MAINE TO
ERN TN. BOTH FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD 10-20 KT DURING
REMAINDER OF PERIOD...EXCEPT WHERE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ACCELERATED
BY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE LOW
BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IA IS PROGGED TO BECOME PRIMARY
CYCLONE BY END OF PERIOD OVER WI...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
ACROSS NRN MO...NRN TX PANHANDLE AND NERN NM. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PRECEDE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR.

... SEVERE TSTM FORECAST DISCUSSION ...
--- NERN CONUS ---
REF WWS 498 AND 502...ACCOMPANYING STATUS REPORTS AND MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILED NOWCAST INFO. SCATTERED TSTMS IN LINES
AND CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD FROM CURRENT POSITIONS ACROSS
NJ/SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH A NARROW BUT FAVORABLE
PLUME OF MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW W OF COASTLINE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
BEHIND INITIAL LINES AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IN A RESIDUAL PLUME OF UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
50-70 KT JET MAX. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT
EXPECTED BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS WHEN MOVING INTO RELATIVELY
STABLE MARINE AIR IN ERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER ABOUT 4Z.
--- MO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS KS/IL ---
REF WWS 500...503...AND ACCOMPANYING STATUS REPORTS AND MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST DETAILS. ONGOING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS ERN KS/SWRN IL. MODIFIED SGF RAOB AND RUC2
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN INFLOW SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...HELPING TO MAINTAIN PORTIONS OF MCS. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL
SHEAR...HOWEVER...AND BECOMING MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT WITH TIME.
--- SRN PLAINS ---
REF WWS 498...501 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND STATUS
REPORTS FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EVIDENT IN MESOANALYSES AND REFLECTIVITY/VIS IMAGERY OVER THIS
REGION. PREFERRED AREAS FOR SEVERE WILL BE INVOF INTERSECTIONS OF
THOSE BOUNDARIES WHERE CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY AND SR INFLOW ARE
MAXIMIZED. 40-50 KT LLJ IS REASONABLY PROGGED FROM ABOUT 03Z
ONWARD ACROSS W TX AND WRN/NRN OK. ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT OF
MOISTURE-RICH SR INFLOW WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE MCS EVOLVING FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SRN PLAINS. MAIN THREAT AFTER DARK WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND...AND EXPECT SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO DECREASE WITH
TIME WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING CONTRIBUTION TO INSTABILITY.
..EDWARDS.. 06/26/00