MKC MCD 251601
MAZ000-NHZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-251800-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1175 FOR NERN PA/ERN NY/VT/NH/WRN MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OVER CENTRAL PA/NY AND THEN DEVELOP/TRACK ENEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER CENTRAL-ERN SECTIONS OF PA/NY INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND HAS RESULTED IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...SBCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1500-2500 J/KG EXIST OVER CENTRAL-ERN SECTIONS OF PA/NY.
CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND
18Z. IF STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.
SUFFICIENT SFC-6 KM SHEAR /35-40 KT/ AND 500 MB SWLY FLOW AT 50 KT
COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOW 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

..MCBEATH-PETERS.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 251615
MKC MCD 251615
SDZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-251900-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1176 FOR MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE THETA-E AXIS WITH
VALUES OF 360-365K EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES F COOLER NORTH OF IT OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST VAD WIND/PROFILER DATA INDICATES 30-35 KNOT 850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
AFTER ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AS THEY ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER.

WE ARE MONITORING AREA FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST FOR SIGNS OF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF COLD FRONT/SURFACE
LOW/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN A FEW HOURS AND LIKELIHOOD OF WEATHER
WATCHES.


..CRAVEN.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 251758
MKC MCD 251758
NEZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-252000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1177 FOR CNTRL/ERN NEB...SWRN
IA...EXTREME NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT
HOUR.

SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES
IN THE ONL/OFK/ODX AREAS OF NEBRASKA JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND
NEAR INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA WITH CURRENT SBCAPE OF 3000-
5000 J/KG.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF OUTFLOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH 0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY OF 150-250 M2/S2. VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE
MARGINAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SURFACE TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35
KNOTS...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TORNADIC
STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.


..CRAVEN.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 251906
MKC MCD 251906
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-252200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1178 FOR ERN GA / CAROLINA PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

IF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL
OVER CENTRAL/NERN GA AND NWD OVER EXTREME WRN SECTIONS OF
NC/SC...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN EWD MOVING LINE OF STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

BROKEN LINE OF MAINLY STRONG-SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG AXIS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
FROM SWRN VA TO NRN GA AND WSWWD INTO CENTRAL AL/ERN MS. THESE
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A REGION OF WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /1500-3000 J/KG/ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT THREAT
CONSISTS OF DAMAGING STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES WHICH INDICATE 1000-1200 J/KG DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL. A WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THESE PULSE-TYPE
STORMS DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...WE ARE MONITORING REGION FROM CENTRAL-NERN GA TO WRN
NC/SC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL FROM EXISTING
AND NEW SLOW MOVING STORMS. WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AT 20-30 KT
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD OVER AREA
OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR A LINE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO
TRACK EWD INTO ERN GA AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.



..MCBEATH-PETERS.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 251921
MKC MCD 251921
IAZ000-MOZ000-252100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1179 FOR SRN IA...EXTREME NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

INTENSIFYING MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE HEADING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL. A WEATHER WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL IN THE SUX
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S F. AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 80S F WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
THUS...AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG.
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM DES MOINES IOWA WSR-88D HAD MODERATE
WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SURFACE TO 6 KM VALUE OF NEARLY 40
KNOTS. THUS...POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS AND
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES EXISTS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST.


..CRAVEN.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 251946
MKC MCD 251946
KSZ000-252100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1180 FOR NWRN/N CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN NORTHWEST KANSAS IN THE NEXT
HOUR AND THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WSR-88D REFLECITIVY MOSAIC IMAGERY
INDICATES TCU/CB FORMING IN NORTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN GLD/HLC. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION. A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT WAS
SHOWN ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...SO
ACTIVITY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ORGANIZED
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SBCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG IS IN
PLACE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 90S F. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL...BUT
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 500 MB BY THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH 700-500
MB VALUES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
STORMS INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..CRAVEN.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 252013
MKC MCD 252013
CTZ000-MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-252200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1181 FOR WRN MA / NWRN MAINE / CENTRAL-
NRN NH/ SRN-ERN NY / VT / NWRN CT / CENTRAL-ERN PA / NWRN NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 494 AND REF WW

496...
STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER SRN-ERN NY / NEW ENGLAND AND ERN PA /
NWRN NJ. THE MAIN THREAT OVER ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND CONSISTS OF
STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WHILE FURTHER SOUTH...THE
THREAT CONSISTS OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW IS NOW LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC WITH
COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD THROUGH CENTRAL NY TO WRN PA. AIRMASS EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG OVER SRN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND UP TO 4000 J/KG OVER ERN PA. VAD WINDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH 0-3
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150-250 M2/S2 AND
STRONG 500 MB WSWLY FLOW AT 50 KT...SUPPORTING A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR TORNADOES. DESPITE WEAKER SHEAR FURTHER SOUTH OVER ERN PA...
STRONGER INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.


..MCBEATH-PETERS.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 252043
MKC MCD 252043
NEZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-252200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1182 FOR SERN NE...SWRN IA...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 495...

HP SUPERCELL OVER CASS COUNTY IOWA HAS TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT LIES BETWEEN OMA-OFF AND EXTENDS WESTWARD AND INTERSECTS
SQUALL LINE IN SAUNDERS COUNTY NEBRASKA. EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE
PAST HOUR.

USING OBSERVED MOTION OF ABOUT 290/30 KNOTS...HODOGRAPH FROM OMAHA
NEBRASKA WSR-88D YIELDS 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF NEARLY
500 M2/S2. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERATIONS FROM OFF AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S F...CREATING VERY
HIGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LCL. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
ENHANCED AS EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELL TRACKS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WITH CELL LIKELY NEAR OFFUT AIR FORCE BASE BY 2130Z AND CENTRAL
MILLS COUNTY IOWA BY 2200Z.


..CRAVEN.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 252125
MKC MCD 252125
TXZ000-OKZ000-260000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1183 FOR ..ERN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK..
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAINFALL...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY
BE REQUIRED.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
MORNING CONVECTION IN OK MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS
REGION...RESULTING IN CAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VAD/PROFILER DATA
SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXIST FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLY FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SOUTHWEST OK
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST
THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN THIS AREA.


..HART.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 252140
MKC MCD 252140
IAZ000-MOZ000-260000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1184 FOR ..SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO..
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 497.

LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NEB. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CELLS
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IA HAVE EVOLVED INTO
SMALL BOW ECHOES. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN DSM AND THE MO/IA BORDER DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND 30+ KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS ACTIVITY.

..HART.. 06/25/00
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 252225
MKC MCD 252225
PAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-260100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1185 FOR EXTREME ERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN
NY...WRN MA...NWRN CT.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 496.

SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT TO PERSIST WITH SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD
AT 20KTS THROUGH EXTREME ERN PA...SERN NY...NRN NJ...AND INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 26/01Z.

SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDING
NEWD FROM DCA INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL 850-500MB
LAPSE RATES OF ONLY AROUND 6.0C/KM EXIST...DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F ARE MAKING UP FOR THIS AND
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG AHEAD OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE. MODULATING INFLUENCE OF MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
BEING MITIGATED BY SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL ALLOW WIND AND
HAIL THREAT TO PERSIST AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000J/KG SUGGEST STORM GENERATED
COLD POOLS WITH LEADING EDGE WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
DEVELOPING BOW SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND
FIELD/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS BRIEF STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR
SIGNATURES MAY DEVELOP...HOWEVER...WEAK MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
ABSOLUTE FLOW OF 15-25KTS WILL PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF PERSISTENT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.


..BANACOS.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 252258
MKC MCD 252258
DCZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-260200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1186 FOR CENTRAL VA...MD...WASHINGTON
DC...EXTREME ERN WV PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND MD WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND AND HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH 26/02Z.
WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS IN NWRN VA CONTINUE NEWD MOVEMENT AT 15KTS
INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS/LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
J/KG. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP AT AROUND 6-
6.5C/KM...AND ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ABSOLUTE FLOW IS GENERALLY
20KTS OR LESS. MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING
LEADS TO DECREASING INTENSITY BEYOND 26/02Z.


..BANACOS.. 06/25/00

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 252354
MKC MCD 252354
MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-CWZ000-260200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1187 FOR MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY OF NY...WRN
AND CENTRAL MA...SRN VT...SRN NH...SWRN ME...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE ESEWD WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. BACKBUILDING CELLS EAST
OF ALBANY AND ORIENTATION OF THE LINE PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW
SUGGESTS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL EXIST LOCALLY WITH 2 INCH/HOUR
RAINFALL RATES.

MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY AFFECTING BENNINGTON COUNTY VT SWWD
INTO RENSSELAER AND GREENE COUNTIES IN NY. IN THIS REGION...RADAR
INDICATES BACKBUILDING OF CELLS AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS IN THIS VICINITY.
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN 15-20KT SWLY FLOW IS
PRESENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN TRAINING CELLS AND A SLOW
SEWD PROPAGATIONAL MOVEMENT OF THE LINE INTO SW-NE ORIENTED
INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500J/KG...ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 26/03Z.

..BANACOS.. 06/25/00
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 260056
MKC MCD 260056
KSZ000-260300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1189 FOR ..SOUTH CENTRAL KS..
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 498.

NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTENSIFYING ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER WEST CENTRAL KS...SW OF RSL. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AHEAD OF STORMS ARE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IN THE GBD/HUT/P28
REGION...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES NOW OVER 3000 J/KG. 00Z
DDC SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WINDS FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT.
STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.


..HART.. 06/26/00
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 260124
MKC MCD 260124
CTZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-260400-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1188 FOR ERN PA...SERN NY...NRN NJ...AND
WRN CT.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL...REF

WW 502.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
AS DIURNAL COOLING AND WEAK WIND REGIME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LEADS TO WEAKENING AND LESS ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH BACKBUILDING OF CELLS
WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 1.5-2
INCHES/LOCALLY.

AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR OF 10-15KTS IN
VICINITY OF WW 502. ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...FLOW ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS LESS THAN 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AS
INDICATED BY VAD WINDS AND SOUNDINGS AT OKX AND WAL. AS
BOUNDARY-LAYER RADIATIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE...LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
WILL LIKEWISE DIMINISH LEADING TO A FURTHER DISORGANIZATION TREND
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE EXCEEDING 500J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS INCREASING AS THUNDERSTORM GENERATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INITIATE NEW CELLS IN VICINITY OF CURRENT ACTIVITY WITH
PRONOUNCED SWWD BACKBUILDING ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN PA INCLUDING
YORK...LANCASTER...AND LEBANON COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS IS HIGHEST.

..BANACOS.. 06/26/00
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 260253
MKC MCD 260253
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260500-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1191 FOR ..SERN IA/NERN MO/WRN IL..
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...REF WW 503.

LARGE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST/NORTH
CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST IA. NORTHERN END OF BOW IN IA IS MOVING
INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LARGE SHIELD OF UPSHEAR
PRECIPITATION BEHIND BOW WILL RESULT IN 2-3 HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING.

PORTION OF LINE OVER NORTHEAST MO IS ALSO MOVING OUT OF INSTABILITY
AXIS. HOWEVER...HIGH DEGREE OF MCS ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENT
REAR INFLOW JET MAY CONTINUE THREAT OF GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN IL. IF
STORMS MAINTAIN INTENSITY...NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IL.

WESTERN EXTENSION OF BOW OVER WESTERN MO REMAINS OCCASIONALLY
SEVERE...WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NEW WW 505 SOON.


..HART.. 06/26/00
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ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;
ACUS3 KMKC 260441
MKC MCD 260441
KSZ000-OKZ000-260700-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #1192 FOR ..SCNTRL KS/NCNTRL OK..
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

DDC AND VNX RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A BOW ECHO OVER PORTIONS OF
KINGMAN/HARPER/BARBER/COMANCHE COUNTIES KS...MOVING INTO
WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTIES OK. LOCAL RADARS SHOW 50-64 KNOT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THIS AREA. SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ORGANIZATION OF BOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS STORMS SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOW LEVEL
JET. GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY DURING
THE COUPLE OF HOURS.


..HART.. 06/26/00
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