MKC AC 291617
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW P28 55 S GLD 25 NE AKO 35 NW BFF 20 N CDR 50 WNW VTN ANW
30 WNW EMP 20 SE ICT 25 WSW P28.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSE YUM 35 E BLH 55 ESE EED PRC 25 S FLG 35 S INW 40 SSE SOW
70 N TUS 20 ESE TUS 25 SW FHU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP 35 WNW LRD

...CONT... 10 SSE IPL 30 NNE DAG 35 NE MER 30 ENE RBL SVE
30 NNW ELY PUC VEL CAG 45 SW LAR LAR 25 E CPR 30 SW SHR BIL 3HT
HLN 30 WSW FCA 65 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW GRB
45 WNW AUW RST DSM UMN 45 WNW MLC DUA SHV JAN 0A8 ANB RMG
50 NW AND HSS JKL 45 S MIE GRR MBL 35 WNW GRB.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...


...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND WARM
ADVECTION BETWEEN 850-700 MB HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN SD THIS
MORNING. THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN STRONG SHEAR
AND DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED STORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN SD
AND NWRN NEB.
ALTHOUGH RICHER GULF MOISTURE IS CUTOFF BY SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
TX...NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
850 MB ANALYSIS MOVING NWD ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. DESPITE NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SSEWD THROUGH THE DAY
WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY -- MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG -- WILL BE
GREATER. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN SERN WY WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE SEWD INTO NERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...WITH
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD AID IN INITIATING
SURFACE BASE CONVECTION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN NEB INTO NWRN KS. THE 10-15 KT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERLAID
WITH 40-50 KT NWLY WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG SHEAR
INDICATES ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER LCL/S SUGGESTS THAT
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES SSEWD INTO CENTRAL KS WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAKER...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN A POSSIBLE
MCS.

...AZ...
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT OVER AZ THIS MORNING THIS MORNING THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS
MOST SECTIONS...EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S...EVEN WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...SBCAPES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE RIM
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH 10-20 KT NELY WINDS FROM
850-500 MB...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY FLOW AROUND MESOSCALE VORTICITY
CENTER OVER SERN AZ...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SWWD INTO THE DESERT
REGIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL THROUGH MID EVENING. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A FEW SEVERE WINDS GUSTS.
..IMY.. 06/29/00