MKC AC 021940
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
REF WW 0638...VALID TIL 2200Z
REF WW 0639...VALID TIL 0100Z
REF WW 0640...VALID TIL 0200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 NE MOT 35 SSW BIS 30 E PHP 20 SW ANW 35 N IML 40 SSW BFF DGW
10 ESE WRL 15 ENE COD 10 WNW BIL 80 WNW MLS 45 NNE GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE PBG 15 N GFL 35 WSW ALB 15 NE AVP 15 E PSB 10 NE PIT
35 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT 15 NNE FSD
20 ENE SUX 35 ENE DSM DBQ 10 SW MTW 55 W ANJ ...CONT... 50 ENE DRT
30 SW AUS 40 E ACT 35 N TYR 20 SE PGO 25 SW HRO 20 NE CNU 25 W HUT
30 SE LAA 50 WSW CAO 15 ESE ROW 40 WNW FST 50 ENE DRT ...CONT...
30 N SAN 35 W PMD 35 S MER 20 NW RBL 35 ENE LMT 40 WSW 27U
10 SSE BTM 60 NE MSO 70 ENE 63S.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...OH VALLEY/NY...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX OVER SERN
LOWER MI...LIFTING NEWD TOWARD SWRN ONTARIO. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM NERN OH INTO
WRN NY. LOCAL VWP DATA FROM THIS REGION SHOW MODERATELY STRONG
MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WITH 40KT DESCENDING TO 7 KM AT BUF. DEEP WLY
FLOW IS REDUCING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR BUT PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES.
SEVERAL EXTENDED LINES OF CONVECTION ARE FORMING OVER NY WELL AHEAD
OF MAIN CLUSTER...HOWEVER MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING OVER WRN NY/NWRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD EWD ALONG NY/PA BORDER WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN OH VALLEY INTO IL...AIR MASS IS QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS WEEK AND DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK INTO THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
STRONG WINDS OR HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM VORT MAX WEST OF GGW...SSWWD TOWARD YELLOWSTONE. THIS
FEATURE IS PROGRESSING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL SHORTLY DIG
SEWD TOWARD WRN SD. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS OCCURING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER ERN MT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW
FORMING OVER NRN WY. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VEERING AND MODERATELY
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE STRONG SWD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OVER THE WRN
DAKOTAS/NEB PANHANDLE. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

...SWRN U.S...
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS OCCURING OVER MOST OF THE SWRN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION READINGS WELL ABOVE 100 DEG
ATTM. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND UPPER HIGH BUILDING
TOWARDS 4-CORNERS...PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT SHOULD BE SLOWLY WNW
THIS AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG
DOWNBURSTS AS STORMS MOVE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.

..DARROW.. 08/02/00