MKC AC 051918
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MDT RISK
AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CDS 45 N GAG 15 SE DDC
35 NNW P28 20 E PNC 25 SSW DUA 35 SW TPL 55 ENE JCT 35 NNE SJT 30
ESE CDS.
SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 25 E LBL 40 WNW IML 55 E CDR
35 S PIR 15 ESE MHE 10 SE SUX 15 WNW STJ 40 NE LFK 10 NW HOU 45 WNW
NIR 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 25 NNE BGS
20 ESE PVW 20 E CVS 30 NW ROW 25 NNE TCS 15 N SOW 35 SW BCE 40 S
SLC 30 NE BYI 50 NNE FCA ...CONT... 65 ENE HVR 15 SW EGE 20 W LIC
60 NNW MOT ...CONT... INL 20 S LSE RFD FWA 10 NNW PHL 25 SSW JFK

...CONT... 15 S CRE AGS 35 N ATL 10 WNW CSV 30 SSW OWB 10 ESE CGI
45 WSW ARG 35 SSW GLH 25 ESE 7R4.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. A DRYLINE
MEANDERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE BIG
BEND OF TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED
OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S OVER A LARGE PART OF KANSAS...MOST OF OKLAHOMA...AND MOST OF
TEXAS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DATA SHOW
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES TO 2500 J/KG FROM NEAR CHILDRESS
SOUTHWARD TO THE BIG BEND AND POINTS EAST. ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SPECIAL 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION SHOW THE CAP HAS WEAKENED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE AS WELL AS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROFILES FROM JAYTON AND TUCUMCARI SHOW MID LEVEL FLOW HAS
INCREASED TO 50 TO 70 KNOTS. AS THIS FLOW MOVES OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 21Z
TO 00Z TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAINLY CELLULAR IN
NATURE. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR FASHION...PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS BY 12Z.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE A BIT LESS THAN FARTHER
SOUTH...BUT UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR STORMS. THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONALLY...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE PATH
OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

..REHBEIN.. 05/05/01