MKC AC 112014
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN...NERN IA
AND W CENTRAL AND SRN WI...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNE MSP 10 S CWA 25 WSW OSH 25 SW MSN 45 NW DBQ MCW 15 WNW FRM
30 N RWF 30 N MSP.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF NERN NE..IA..SERN SD..MN..WI..AND NRN IL
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE MKE 35 ENE MLI 30 NNE DSM 15 ENE OLU 50 WSW YKN 50 WSW YKN
25 NNW YKN BKX 15 SW AXN 30 ENE BRD 15 NE MTW 25 SSE MKE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH AND MODERATE
RISK AREAS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW ANJ 15 ESE MBS 15 WNW LAF 10 NW UIN 15 NW STJ 30 SE MCK
35 NE AKO 35 W BFF 35 WSW GCC 40 NNE 81V PHP 30 SSE 9V9 30 N HON
55 WNW AXN INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE NEL PHL 35 SW AVP ITH 45 NNE UCA GFL BAF 10 S ISP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 ESE GPT 55 E LUL MGM 50 ENE MCN 30 WNW SSI 20 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BVE
30 ENE HEZ 40 WSW CBM 30 S HSV 20 SSE AND 15 NE CLT 25 ESE ROA
20 SE CHO 40 SSE RIC 40 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE HVR 25 SW OLF
35 NNE Y22 40 WSW JMS 75 N GFK ...CONT... 20 E SBY 30 WNW LUK
10 E EVV OJC HUT P28 LTS 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF
55 NNW MRF HOB CAO 10 SSE AKO 25 NE CPR 15 WNW RIW EVW 25 ENE BAM
70 N LMT 10 NNE PDX 25 NE BLI.

...MID MO VALLEY TO MN WI AND MI...
LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET IS MOVING EWD FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI AND STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY OVER MN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG FROM SWRN
AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING ESEWD INTO WI..NERN IA
AND POSSIBLY NWRN IL BY LATER TONIGHT. VAD AND PROFILER WINDS
INDICATE HODOGRAPH THAT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES OVER
CENTRAL AND SRN MN AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG
BOUNDARY OVER SRN MN SUGGEST THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO. PRIND ACTIVITY WILL FORM INTO BOW ECHO COMPLEX BY
THIS EVENING WITH COMPLEX MOVING RAPIDLY EWD TO ESEWD ALONG E/W
BOUNDARY INTO WI..NERN IA...AND POSSIBLY NRN IL. SIGNIFICANT WIND
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IF THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPS.
OTHER MORE ISOLD SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SWWD INTO ERN NEB WITH
TIME..BUT SWD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BY CAP.

...NERN WY AND SWRN SD INTO WRN NEB...
UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS WINDS VEER FROM
N TO E. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND THERE
IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK.

...NERN U.S...
SHARP SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NY SEWD ACROSS THE NEW
YORK CITY AREA. NE/SW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL NY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND DEVELOP SEWD ALONG BOUNDARY
DURING REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH CAPE
VALUES ARE WEAK...MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FLOW AGAINST BOUNDARY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORM BAND. ALSO...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES IN SHEAR ZONE NEAR BOUNDARY.


...SERN U.S....

THERE IS SOME RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SWRN AL. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WITH RISK OF SEVERE EXPANDING INTO SERN
GA WITH TIME.
..JOHNS.. 06/11/01