SPC MCD 120908 COR
FLZ000-GAZ000-121100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND SWRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 765...

VALID 120908Z - 121100Z
CHANGE CONCERNING LINE TO TORNADO WATCH 765
STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FROM
EXTREME SERN LA TO SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
AND THEN INTO SWRN GA. INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT 300MB JET WAS RESULTING IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH 1000-2000 J/KG WARM SECTOR MLCAPE CONTINUING
TO FUEL DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY HAS
SHOWN LITTLE NEWD PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS BUT SHORT RANGE FORECASTS FROM VARIOUS MODELS APPEAR TO
SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE OR REDEVELOP INLAND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO GA THROUGH 12Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW 765 AND
ISOLD TORNADO OR SEVERE HAIL EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY.


..CARBIN.. 11/12/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
29898435 29888602 30768543 31638484 31648314 31638144
30768206 29888268
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120900
SPC MCD 120900
FLZ000-GAZ000-121100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL AND SWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 765...

VALID 120900Z - 121100Z
STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FROM
EXTREME SERN LA TO SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
AND THEN INTO SWRN GA. INTENSE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT 300MB JET WAS RESULTING IN
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH 1000-2000 J/KG WARM SECTOR MLCAPE CONTINUING
TO FUEL DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY HAS
SHOWN LITTLE NEWD PROGRESS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS BUT SHORT RANGE FORECASTS FROM VARIOUS MODELS APPEAR TO
SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE OR REDEVELOP INLAND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND INTO GA THROUGH 12Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW 765 AND
ISOLD TORNADO OR SEVERE HAIL EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY.


..CARBIN.. 11/12/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
29898435 29888602 30768543 31638484 31648314 31638144
30768206 29888268
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121100
SPC MCD 121100
GAZ000-SCZ000-121300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA AND SRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121100Z - 121300Z
A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER TELFAIR
AND WHEELER COUNTIES IN SOUTH-CNTRL GA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEWD INTO THIS REGION EARLY TODAY. THERE MAY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND SRN SC WHERE A BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUST OR A TORNADO COULD OCCUR. COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF ANY OF
THESE EVENTS CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH.
THE LINE OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT SITUATED ACROSS SERN GA INTO EXTREME SRN SC
AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THIS
AREA. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL FAVOR CELL PERSISTENCE/ROTATION. ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEREFORE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

..CARBIN.. 11/12/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
32288068 31158155 31358341 32238305 32908138 32778063
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121358
SPC MCD 121358
SCZ000-NCZ000-121600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC/ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121358Z - 121600Z
SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL MAY BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS EARLY TODAY. A TORNADO OR SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG STRONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN GA INTO ERN
NC. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND WAS
RESULTING IN INLAND ADVECTION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE AREA...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEATING ACROSS ERN NC
AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THAT
AREA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE. STRONG SHEAR AND
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT.
CONSOLIDATING FROM ERN GA

..CARBIN.. 11/12/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
34277769 32997959 34527964 35467870 36057723 35757580
34957589
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121506
SPC MCD 121506
FLZ000-GAZ000-121630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SERN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 766...

VALID 121506Z - 121630Z
WLY COMPONENT IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COLD POOL IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD BAND
OF CONVECTION WILL FORCE LEADING...MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NRN HALF OF WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TRAILING
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND SWWD INTO THE NERN GULF AND THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIFTING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 25 KT. WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR SOUTH
OF WW MAY LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN AND/OR LOCAL
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.


..DARROW.. 11/12/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
29918286 29918403 31008334 32098265 32098145 32098025
31008098 29918170
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 121533
SPC MCD 121533
NCZ000-121730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2002
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121533Z - 121730Z

...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NC SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS THUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ERN NC
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EVEN SO INSTABILITY OF CONSEQUENCE IS
LIMITED TO COASTAL NC WHERE SFC-BASED CAPE IS ON THE ORDER 1000
J/KG. WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SUPPRESSED

HEATING...ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

OVER THE LAST HOUR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED
FROM ROBESON COUNTY...NWD TO HALIFAX COUNTY. WITH ACTIVITY
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO MEAN SWLY FLOW...BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO BECOME EFFICIENT IN DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION. ATTM IT
APPEARS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.


..DARROW.. 11/12/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
33857857 34857877 36187734 36537590
NNNN