SPC MCD 011142
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-011345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF COAST
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 011142Z - 011345Z
BANDS OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM NRN LA...AND INLAND
FROM THE NRN GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.
NRN LA MCS APPEARS TO BE FWD PROPAGATING AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE ALONG NRN EDGE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR MCV APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX.
ADDITIONAL STORMS...LIKELY ELEVATED...HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS TO THE NORTH OF GULF COAST WARM FRONT FROM SRN MS ACROSS
SRN AL...THE WRN FL PNHDL...AND SRN GA. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE MULTICELLULAR AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. ASCENT AND SHEAR MAY STRENGTHEN AS MCV MOVES EAST THIS
MORNING AND...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...RESULT IN GRADUAL STORM
INTENSIFICATION.
..CARBIN.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
32668324 31898297 30958258 31058660 30838894 30409339
30899558 31429562 32659391 33229126
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011426
SPC MCD 011426
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 011426Z - 011530Z
WW WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION FROM SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL.
WELL ORGANIZED MCV ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
SWRN-CENTRAL MS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...REACHING SWRN AL BY 18Z AND NEAR SWRN GA BY 21Z. REGIONAL
RADARS ALSO SHOW EMBEDDED BOW SIGNATURES WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN AL ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDS FROM FAR SRN GA WWD TO SRN LA. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN A VERY MOIST INFLUX OF
GULF AIR. AUGMENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF THE MCV WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS
MORNING FROM SRN LA/SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL. BOWING SEGMENTS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
..PETERS.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
29208982 29429246 31049216 31588982 31448707 31468448
31318344 29798330 29548512 29568684
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011511
SPC MCD 011511
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA TO NRN
VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 011511Z - 011615Z
WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/PA SWD TO NRN
VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN NY SWWD
TO WRN VA ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS MOIST WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING THE CIN IS
WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE AREA FROM CENTRAL-ERN NY SWD TO PORTIONS
OF VA/MD IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/MCV OVER ERN OH ATTM...WITH A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ACROSS NERN
KY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN...
GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED AND EXPECTED WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NRN VA/MD TO ERN PA/ERN
NY AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION.
..PETERS.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...
42057815 43127789 43877481 42817411 41367429 38497506
37277569 37587837 39647886 41577847
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011607
SPC MCD 011607
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN MS EWD TO SRN GA/NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...
VALID 011607Z - 011730Z
DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING ACROSS SERN MS INTO SWRN AL.
NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF WW 365 ACROSS NRN FL THIS
AFTERNOON.
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AL/WRN FL
PANHANDLE...EXTENDING FROM COASTAL AREA OF SWRN AL WNWWD TO THE FAST
MOVING BOW ECHO OVER SRN MS. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE FASTEST PORTION OF THE
BOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT AT AROUND 40 KT ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SERN MS THROUGH 17Z...AND ACROSS FAR SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 1630-18Z.
SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INDICATED TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN GA SWWD TO THE
FL PANHANDLE...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS FAR NRN
FL. AIR MASS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AND SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF TWO
MCV/S...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SERN AL AND THE OTHER ACROSS SERN MS. WW
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REST OF FAR NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AS
ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN GA/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE APPROACHES THIS REGION
AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NRN FL SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER
ORGANIZATION.
..PETERS.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
29729346 31769105 31808190 30698150 30028139 29638337
29658458
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011830
SPC MCD 011830
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-011930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/SRN IND/SRN OH/WRN-NRN KY/FAR WRN WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 011830Z - 011930Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN
IND INTO NRN KY/SWRN OH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN MO/
WRN KY/SRN IL EWD TO SRN OH/FAR WRN WV.
SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN TN/FAR SERN MO TOWARD SWRN OH
INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SSWLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO SWRN IND AND
MID 50S INTO CENTRAL-NRN KY. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING
FROM THE MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL IND SWWD TO SRN IL WILL SPREAD EWD AIDING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN AN UPDRAFT.
..PETERS.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
40328517 39508217 39098125 38238172 37648322 37668567
36658761 36208886 36558995 37579150 39629041 40438765
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011943
SPC MCD 011943
TXZ000-012145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 011943Z - 012145Z
SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE SUGGESTS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN W/NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WRN OK/NW TX --
WILL SPREAD E/SE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAY RAPIDLY WEAKENING CINH
IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING CU/TCU -- INITIALLY IN ABI/BWD/SEP
CORRIDOR -- OWING TO STRONG HEATING /90S AND LOWER 100S/ ALONG
PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX.
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAIN
HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE IN LOCALLY BACKED
FLOW/HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX --
LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
30789940 30899961 32189944 33189910 33729831 33499632
32829525 32439510 30489553 29909655 30139822
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012022
SPC MCD 012022
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-012115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA/NJ/CENTRAL-NRN VA/ERN
WV PANHANDLE/MD/DC/DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...367...
VALID 012022Z - 012115Z
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN
MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA.
AT 2015Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WYOMING COUNTY PA
SWD TO RICHMOND COUNTY VA. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND
35 KT WITH EMBEDDED SEGMENTS MOVING EWD AT 40 KT. DESPITE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...THIS WELL ORGANIZED LINE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE
EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA
THROUGH 22Z.
FARTHER N ACROSS NY...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY...WHILE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS ERN NY INTO NJ SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS. STORMS
ACROSS SERN NY WILL MOVE INTO WRN CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND BETWEEN
21-22Z AND MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW TO THE EAST OF WW 367.
..PETERS.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...
37567506 37567762 37597880 38137937 39887874 42477762
44007705 43997271 41637364
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012056
SPC MCD 012056
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-012130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH/CENTRAL-ERN KY/WV/SWRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...
VALID 012056Z - 012130Z
DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD OF WW 370 IN THE NEXT
30-60 MINUTES AFFECTING MUCH OF WV AND SWRN VA...WARRANTING THE
ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW SHORTLY.
FAST MOVING BOW ECHO /EWD AT 40-50 KT/ ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OH INTO
CENTRAL-ERN KY WILL EXIT WW 370 BETWEEN 2130-22Z. GIVEN WELL
ORGANIZED BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
BAND OF 60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO THE
EAST OF WW 370.
..PETERS.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
36748722 40758393 40737972 39577950 38407975 37328107
36668317
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012127
SPC MCD 012127
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN AL/SRN MS/SRN GA/NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...368...
VALID 012127Z - 012300Z
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE WW
365 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. CONTINUE SEVERE WW 368 ACROSS
NRN FL/SE GA.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE
ACROSS WW 368.
FURTHER WEST...TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE PUSHED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 365...SUGGESTING END TO
SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ONE EXCEPTION FOR CONTINUAL
REGENERATION OF TSTMS/ISOLD SEVERE WILL BE ALONG S/SW PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MESOSCALE COLD POOL ACROSS SRN LA...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THIS REGION.
..GUYER.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...FFC...BMX...MOB...LIX...LCH...
29488478 31448235 31457883 29488128
31818186 29678462 29739336 30919212 30808642 31898539
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012204
SPC MCD 012204
TXZ000-OKZ000-012330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/SE OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 012204Z - 012330Z
TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN TX AND POSSIBLY SRN
OK EARLY THIS EVENING. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX WILL SPREAD
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS ERN TX/SRN OK EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS SUCH...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE
EWD INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX -- ALONG
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF
4000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL
SUPPORT THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
SUPPORTED BY INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...TSTMS MAY
CONGEAL AND/OR EXPAND NEWD ACROSS NE TX/SE OK.
..GUYER.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
33909708 34219562 33219504 31119540 30809657 31139732
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012324
SPC MCD 012324
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-KYZ000-020030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN MD...WRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...
VALID 012324Z - 020030Z
...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE AS IT CRESTS CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN RIDGE...
SQUALL CONTINUES ITS EWD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AT 35-40KT. CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EAST OF CURRENT WATCH BETWEEN 00-01Z. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
DIURNAL COOLING AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO
STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...
37418262 38378082 39758061 39477855 37817839 36798067
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012359
SPC MCD 012359
TXZ000-020130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 012359Z - 020130Z
ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL TX ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD E/SE INTO
PORTIONS OF ERN/SE TX WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. WW MAY BE NEEDED.
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL TX
WILL CONTINUE TO CONGEAL AND SPREAD E/SE INTO INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS ERN/SE TX. EXTREME INSTABILITY -- CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
4000-4500 J/KG -- IS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM OF ORGANIZING TSTM CLUSTERS.
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN PRIMARY HAZARD OWING TO DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...WITH TORNADIC THREAT PROGRESSIVELY MITIGATED BY LINEAR
TENDENCY. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
CONGEAL AND COLD POOL ORGANIZES.
..GUYER.. 06/01/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
28979804 29489816 30639784 30849607 31949559 31579411
30789425 29939491 29349597
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020040
SPC MCD 020040
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369...370...
VALID 020040Z - 020145Z
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. THIS PROFILE FAVORS THE
CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS OR SOME HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING WILL
DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.
..DARROW.. 06/02/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
38098919 38898712 38878496 38288326 36958386 36908703
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020134
SPC MCD 020134
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 371...373...
VALID 020134Z - 020230Z
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING...
INTENSE ELONGATED BAND OF SUPERCELLS IS MOVING SEWD INTO THE
METROPLEX AS COLD POOL BEGINS TO SURGE SWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DRIVING INTO A VERY MOIST/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG ERN
EDGE OF CAP. ALTHOUGH LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS EVENING...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND STRONG
VEERING PROFILES FAVOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TX LATE THIS
EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
..DARROW.. 06/02/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
38098919 38898712 38878496 38288326 36958386 36908703
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020345
SPC MCD 020345
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...
VALID 020345Z - 020445Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF LA...
DEVELOPING MCS IS SURGING SEWD AT 40-50KT ACROSS NERN TX WITH
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING FROM WOOD
COUNTY...ARCING SWWD INTO NAVARRO COUNTY. EXPANDING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL
MAINTAIN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW INTO
NWRN LA BY 06Z. WW WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY.
..DARROW.. 06/02/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
33349533 32689317 31389076 30269154 31389546 32209717
32709575
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 020634
SPC MCD 020634
LAZ000-TXZ000-020830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX AND LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...375...
VALID 020634Z - 020830Z
SEVERE BOW ECHO MOVING ESEWD ABOUT 50KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS
MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL LA THROUGH 08Z/3AM CDT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ATOP MCS COLD POOL ACROSS TX BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLD.
MATURE LINEAR MCS WITH LEADING LINE/TRAILING STRATIFORM FORMATION
AND WELL DEVELOPED MESOHIGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PARISHES
OF NRN LA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FAVORABLE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT INCLUDES ABUNDANT DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS 40-50KT REAR INFLOW JET AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN
THE WAKE OF THE LINE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...IT APPEARS THAT
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SEWD OF TSTM WATCH 375 AND A NEW
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA BEFORE 09Z/4AM CDT.
..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
30049193 30579385 31099804 33279807 32729383 32159190
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021045
SPC MCD 021045
MSZ000-LAZ000-021245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376...
VALID 021045Z - 021245Z
LARGE BOWED SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS AT
ABOUT 40KT. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE OUTFLOW
MOVING INTO SERN LA AND AIRMASS IN THIS AREA REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS MS...AIRMASS WAS A SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL REAR INFLOW JET OF 50-60KT WAS
NOTED ON WINNFIELD PROFILER AND WAS MOVING INTO THIS REGION. PRIMARY
THREAT ALONG THE LINE WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. AT CURRENT
MOTION...STORMS SHOULD REACH ERN EDGE OF SVR TSTM WATCH 376 SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z. INTENSITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH IS
MAINTAINED.
..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
29998915 30009185 32719194 32718921
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021241
SPC MCD 021241
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/AL...WRN FL PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 021241Z - 021415Z
BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MS ACROSS THE MS DELTA THIS
MORNING WITH LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS LIKELY PRODUCING 25-35KT WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. A STRONG
MCV/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN GENERATED IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT MCS AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS CNTRL MS ATTM. MARGINAL
DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BASED ON LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND
WATCH 376 WILL EXPIRE AT 8AM CDT/13Z. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GETS UNDERWAY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV MOVES EAST ACROSS AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL.
..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
30258615 30078875 30038923 31268914 32048896 32688917
32868754 32818586
NNNN