SPC MCD 101356
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND THROUGH W CNTRL MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101356Z - 101530Z
THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS FROM SE
ND INTO W CNTRL MN. SEVERE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW AT THIS
TIME. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM SERN ND INTO W CNTRL
MN. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...AND AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE 12Z ABERDEEN RAOB SHOWED
1800 J/KG OF MUCAPE ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTING
STORMS ARE ELEVATED. GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OBSERVED ON THE MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN AND SERN ND...SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE STORMS SUGGESTS HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
THREAT.


..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...
44989611 46059700 47479728 47669547 45489524
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101702
SPC MCD 101702
SDZ000-101900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101702Z - 101900Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST
THROUGH WRN AND TOWARD CNTRL SD. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST TOWARD CNTRL/ERN SD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF WRN AND W CNTRL SD ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
WRN SD SWWD THROUGH SE WY. THIS CLOUD FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLEAR SKIES PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL SD
AND THIS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. A QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL SD FROM JUST W OF MOBRIDGE SEWD TO W OF
YANKTON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER W OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIER AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON
GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT
ACROSS WRN SD SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS CROSS THE
BOUNDARY IN ERN SD WHERE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...STRONGER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT.

..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
43320335 45700180 45710003 44749972 43080176
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101721
SPC MCD 101721
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...MUCH OF WV AND WRN/SRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 101721Z - 101915Z
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN WV/FAR WRN VA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. AS NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND IT/S OUTFLOW...THERE MAY BE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN VA WITHIN THE NEXT
2 HOURS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT...CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAIN ALONG NW-SE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL VA INTO SCENTRAL VA.

AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS FAR NERN WV/WRN VA OVER THE
NEXT 2 HOURS...NUMEROUS MERGERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE COLD
POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS CLUSTER OVER NERN WV. AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/SRN VA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPES
INCREASING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. SUBTLE MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 30 KTS
OBSERVED BY RECENT JACKSON VWP DATA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR A
FORWARD PROPAGATING WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN KY INTO SRN WV/FAR SWRN VA AND MAY
POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL...GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND INSTABILITY. WITH VERY HIGH PW
VALUES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING/TRAINING IN THE WAA
ZONE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL INTO SCENTRAL
VA AND ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL WV.

..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
36588008 37048224 37598311 38418315 38718272 38998174
38848000 37967882 37257835 36847805 36707828
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101809
SPC MCD 101809
NCZ000-SCZ000-101945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC AND ERN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101809Z - 101945Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN SC/SERN NC. OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT
AND LACK OF BETTER ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
WATCH.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY
OVER SERN NC AND ALONG A N-S BOUNDARY OVER ERN SC. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROMM 2000-2500 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF
THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE INCIPIENT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST
HOUR. WEAK NWLY FLOW SHOULD CARRY MOST OF THE CONVECTION SEWD
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG
C FROM THE SFC-2 KM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AS CONVECTION MERGES WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MAY AID IN RAPID UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING AND A BRIEF
INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNORGANIZED AND PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE THAT A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.


..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
32748007 33338112 33828104 34528032 35257949 35217791
35007612 33627867
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101853
SPC MCD 101853
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL EWD INTO SRN OH AND FAR NRN KY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101853Z - 102200Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS THEY MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS FAR NRN KY/SRN OH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/ERN IND. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT. FARTHER WEST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PIA ESEWD TO NEAR HUF...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
TRAIN LEADING TO THE MAIN RISK BEING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES FROM
1-2 IN/HR.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WHERE STRONGER /20-25 KT/ OF LOW TO MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW EXISTS PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE
OVER THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS...ONLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. FARTHER WEST...WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF
10-15 KTS/ ALONG WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN VERY SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND CELL TRAINING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND. THIS IS WHERE A
COMBINATION OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH MID 70S DEWPTS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 IN./ AND NEARLY
STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF OVER 2 IN/HR
RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...LSX...
39218901 39689056 40249039 40338881 40168590 39668269
39328156 38598189 38378501
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101919
SPC MCD 101919
NDZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101919Z - 102145Z
PARTS OF CNTRL ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN
STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SW ND
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN SD. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS
N AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH AN AXIS OF NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. HOWEVER...THE 18Z RAOB FROM BISMARK SHOWS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS CNTRL ND AND SUGGESTS
DEWPOINTS MIGHT MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES.
THE DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS...AND SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS AREA MIGHT HELP
TO OFFSET THE EFFECT OF MIXING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE NRN
EXTENTION OF A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO
CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE BISMARK 18Z RAOB SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EAST TOWARD ERN ND WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL ND
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO ELY DUE IN PART TO
INFLUENCE OF THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON THE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS IN THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.


..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
46089888 46380166 47450163 47789990 47909791 46549749
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101920
SPC MCD 101920
FLZ000-102115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101920Z - 102115Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS CONVECTIVE LINE/S MOVE WWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ALONG EAST COAST SEE BREEZE FRONT OVER THE
LAST HOUR OVER SOUTH FL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
INTO CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON WV
SAT IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL
AID IN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL STORM VENTING. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM
2000-2500 J/KG...CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED IF NOT
STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL. ALONG WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREATS WITH THE LINE/S AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH FL.


..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
25638121 26298189 26858213 27258217 27908135 27958053
27098018 25538017
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101934
SPC MCD 101934
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-102100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101934Z - 102100Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL
POSSIBLE. MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS WRN MT IN AREA
OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 600 MB AND UNDIRECTIONAL
SWLY FLOW...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS STRONGER SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. IF IT APPEARS THAT
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WW WOULD LIKELY BE
WARRANTED.


..IMY.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...
46100941 45010999 44661357 45891465 48741379 49171217
48820905
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102007
SPC MCD 102007
MNZ000-NDZ000-102200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NW MN THROUGH NERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102007Z - 102200Z
PORTIONS OF NERN ND THROUGH NW MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF IT BECOME EVIDENT THAT ADDITIONAL
SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SW
ONTARIO SWWD INTO EXTREME NW MN. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE
DEVELOPED WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MERGED
WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH NRN ND. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
PARTS OF NW MN THROUGH NERN ND. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MN/ND PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY RAISES
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SPREADING EAST. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.


..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
48989508 48629476 47909656 47739842 48469883 48729768
48959636
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102035
SPC MCD 102035
MNZ000-SDZ000-102200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102035Z - 102200Z
CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER WRN/CENTRAL SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE
A SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 596. THUS A NEW WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN SD BY 22Z.
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW INCIPIENT SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LEAD CELL OVER STANLEY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 596 BY AROUND 23Z.
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 596 OVER THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL/ERN SD WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL
INHIBITION SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
43099973 44480002 45839969 45919726 45829680 44449677
43129724
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102039
SPC MCD 102039
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND AND NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102039Z - 102245Z
SE MT THROUGH SW ND AND NW SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD INTO SW ND
AND SE MT. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE S OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER
SERN MT AS WELL. AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN ND. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ND MIGHT DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER
SOME OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STORM
DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL W CNTRL ND. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AS
STORMS DEVELOP.


..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102053
SPC MCD 102053
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102053Z - 102300Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR NRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SERN WY AND
NCENTRAL CO WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEST OF A LEE
TROUGH OVER FAR SERN WY AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO.
STRONGER THAN MODEL FORECAST MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE MDW WITH
35-40 KTS AT 6 KM WILL AID DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
OVER SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY OF
1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH...DECREASED MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY
THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER WILL LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
WITH CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS
STILL ANTICIPATED OVER NERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
39780469 40410494 41320483 42090453 42940443 42970325
42980276 42870259 41240276 39820327
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102056
SPC MCD 102056
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...W THROUGH W CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...

VALID 102056Z - 102300Z
STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS
ACROSS W CNTRL SD. OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY
AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL
ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH WRN SD. THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO STORMS ENCOUNTERING STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER
CAP DOWNSTREAM TOWARD CNTRL SD. FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN SD...STORMS
HAVE MOVED E OF THE WRN PORTION OF WW 596...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS AREA
IN THE WATCH SINCE HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS
THE MOVE EAST INTO WRN SD.


..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102107
SPC MCD 102107
NCZ000-VAZ000-102300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102107Z - 102300Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
AS IT MOVES SWD INTO NCENTRAL NC. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH MODEST COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD
FROM SCENTRAL VA INTO NCENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 DEG C FROM THE SFC-3 KM AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL AID IN CONTINUED
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/GUST FRONT. LACK OF STRONGER
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S
SHOULD LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.


..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
35787969 36008021 36408035 36578019 36557930 36567807
36187779 35727817
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102205
SPC MCD 102205
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-102330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO AND SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 102205Z - 102330Z
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OVER SERN NEB TO THE
SOUTH OF OMA AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE LIMITED AREA OF A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A NEED
FOR A WW.

LATEST SFC AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN MCV OVER ERN NEB WHERE MLCAPES FROM
2500-3000 J/KG EXISTED. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR SERN NEB INDICATE AROUND 25 J/KG OF REMAINING
MLCINH. MODERATE /25 TO 30 KTS/ MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MCV AS SAMPLED RECENTLY BY THE FAIRBURY PROFILER AND HASTINGS
VWP ABOVE SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THUS SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE IF
CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME REMAINING CINH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NARROWNESS OF INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD
PRECLUDE A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT.


..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
39939523 40189631 40549632 41309600 41319502 40989444
39789427
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102210
SPC MCD 102210
SDZ000-NEZ000-110015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...

VALID 102210Z - 110015Z
CONTINUE WW 596...SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE EAST OF WW
596 BY THE 11/00-02Z TIME FRAME.

EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS UNDERWAY...AND APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING NEAR WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND MIGRATING
OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY MODELS THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS...AND CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
THROUGH 11/00Z IN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG.

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS NEAR
STRONGER CELLS...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD
POOL AND BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY AFTER 11/00Z.
UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
ADVANCE EAST OF PIERRE AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.


..KERR.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
45160067 45859970 45579818 45019723 43949771 43279856
42970043 43340138 44110067
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102237
SPC MCD 102237
MTZ000-110030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...

VALID 102237Z - 110030Z
CONTINUE WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF CURRENT WW
BY 11/00Z.

FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW
HOURS IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS IS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...
AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LEWISTOWN AREA BY 11/00-02Z. AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO ENCOUNTER MORE MOIST AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW /BENEATH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES/...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STRONGER
ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE JORDAN AREA BY 11/03Z.


..KERR.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
47871179 48881072 48580745 47240628 46520743 46330907
46541119
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 102351
SPC MCD 102351
NDZ000-110145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598...

VALID 102351Z - 110145Z
CONTINUE WW.

ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG
EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 94 APPEARS TO BE
WEAK...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SEEMS WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUING
RISK OF ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN
AROUND 70F IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF
BOUNDARY...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG...UNTIL INHIBITION INCREASES AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO COOL BY 01-02Z. NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ALSO ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT SUPERCELLS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..KERR.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
46730222 46830161 46980124 46949970 47199904 47379821
46949788 46419830 46109998 46290186 46280245
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110056
SPC MCD 110056
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-110230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL AND ERN MT...FAR WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...600...

VALID 110056Z - 110230Z
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER WW 597 AND THUS WW 597 IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT /02Z/. CONVECTION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 597 WILL MOVE INTO WW
600 AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY.

MUCH OF WW 597 HAS BEEN STABILIZED FROM OUTFLOW OF CONVECTIVE LINE
AS IT MOVED EWD ACROSS SWRN/WCENTRAL MT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
OVER WW 597 THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE INTO TWO AREAS. ONE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS WW 600 AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER
GREATER INSTABILITY. THE OTHER OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 597...NWRN
MT WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE
WEST SIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED ENOUGH THAT A REPLACEMENT
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FARTHER EAST...SEVERE CONVECTION PRESENTLY IN WW 600 WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND
WHILE MOVING DOWN INSTABILITY AXIS.


..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
46670968 47271126 46471363 47451364 48471279 49021055
47980522 47720260 45460303 45350660
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110151
SPC MCD 110151
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/W CNTRL MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598...

VALID 110151Z - 110245Z
NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE 03Z.

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WEST OF FARGO...WHERE HEATED VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WEAK
SURFACE WIND SHIFT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
UP TO 4000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTING A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN/LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FARGO AREA IS EXPECTED
BY 04Z...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL/GUST FRONT STILL
POSSIBLE.

ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST OF FARGO INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW
REGIME...SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 06Z.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
46559868 47219790 47669704 47379571 46639510 45729575
45699733 45719860
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110202
SPC MCD 110202
SDZ000-110400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/EASTERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599...

VALID 110202Z - 110400Z
CONTINUE WW.

INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED WELL EAST OF THE
PIERRE AREA... WITH RENEWED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ACROSS PIERRE AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST. THIS IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL...ON EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PLAINS/PLATEAU LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY
PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
45109970 45669811 44729731 43579757 43149940 43990032
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110241
SPC MCD 110241
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW NEB/NW KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 110241Z - 110515Z
RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CONTINUES...RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
INCREASING.

ONGOING SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND MAY
EVEN EXPAND/INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER THIS EVENING AS CONVERGENCE/WARM
ADVECTION INCREASE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 35 KT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS JET WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH CAPE UP TO
2000 J/KG...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORTING CONTINUING RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING CONVECTION ARE NOT EXTREME...HEAVY RAIN CORES
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN ACROSS AREAS AROUND
MCCOOK BY 06Z.


..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
40480221 40870091 39589791 39289990 39340171 39810264
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110340
SPC MCD 110340
MTZ000-110545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600...

VALID 110340Z - 110545Z
CONTINUE WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z.

SMALL BUT INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF JORDAN MT. ACTIVITY IS
NOW NORTH OF WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATE
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. AS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WITH MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO QUITE
LIKELY...AND MAY REACH THE GLENDIVE AREA BY 06-07Z.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...
47260692 47530593 47430506 47360419 46960411 46710469
46630563 46660663 46720730 47010705
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110419
SPC MCD 110419
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/WRN MN/ERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599...601...

VALID 110419Z - 110615Z
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 599 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
05Z...CONTINUING REMAINING VALID PORTION OF 601.
DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...PRIMARY SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.
HOWEVER...TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WEAKER SUBTROPICAL
BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO AID SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AS TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT
INTENSITIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
47719570 47639420 46679470 45769454 44609554 44139666
43549747 43689884 44519816 45379832 45959788 46519692
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 110540
SPC MCD 110540
NDZ000-MTZ000-110615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600...

VALID 110540Z - 110615Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0600 UTC AND WILL
LIKELY NOT BE REISSUED.

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS ECNTRL MT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW. THE TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ALONG WEAK E-W ORIENTED FRONT SITUATED
FROM ECNTRL MT INTO SRN ND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY WARM
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF SELY LLJ. RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER EXISTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
THERE COULD BE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HAIL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

COVERAGE SEEMS SPARSE ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM.
HOWEVER...IF SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION ARE NOTED...ONE MAY BE
REQUIRED.


..RACY.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
46240714 47420716 47740415 46940247 46170245 45850490
45970663
NNNN