SPC MCD 051103
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-051300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL/ERN
OK...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33...

VALID 051103Z - 051300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33
CONTINUES.

10Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SFC COLD FRONT FROM SRN MO OZARKS SWWD TO
NEAR 30 S TUL...35 SE OKC...20 S FSI...TO FRONTAL-WAVE LOW APCHG
SPS. DRYLINE INTERSECTS COLD FRONT NEAR LOCATION OF LOW...EXTENDING
SSWWD ACROSS ABI AREA TO JUST W DRT. MUCH OF DRYLINE N OF RIO
GRANDE HAS BEGUN TO PROGRESS EWD AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS
RESPOND TO APCH OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER NM/CO.
DRYLINE WILL REPRESENT WRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN HILL COUNTRY AND N-CENTRAL TX. DRYLINE
PASSAGE ACROSS WRN COUNTIES OF WW SHOULD REMOVE SVR THREAT FROM W-E.
MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH INITIAL CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX CONVECTION BECAME
DIFFUSE AND WEAKENED...ADDITIONAL STG-SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE IN MOIST SECTOR FROM N TX NNEWD ACROSS ERN OK...PERHAPS
SPREADING NEWD INTO WRN AR AFTER 15Z. SVR HAIL AND STG/DAMAGING
GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUCH TSTMS...WHICH WOULD OCCUR IN
ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR COMMONLY
40-50 KT. ELEVATED MUCAPE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT N OF SFC
COLD FRONT OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS AS BUOYANT LAYER BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER...THOUGH THETAE ATOP FRONTAL LAYER AND
ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS. FCST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL WITH ACTIVITY
NOW OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL OK AND S-CENTRAL/SERN KS AS IT
MOVES/REDEVELOPS EWD.


..EDWARDS.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...
32909790 33619790 36079754 37609683 38199487 36619470
35259482 33349498 31279877
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051157
SPC MCD 051157
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-051800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 051157Z - 051800Z
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND INTO MAINE DURING TUESDAY MORNING.
LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES WILL APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR...AND LOCAL
FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL BE BRIEF...BUT AROUND .05 TO .10 INCHES PER
HOUR.

A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
DOWNSTREAM AND INTO MAINE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER TO CREATE A
BRIEF...BUT HEAVY...BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL CONTINUE AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG AND CONTINUED WARMING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
WILL AID IN QUICKLY TRANSITIONING THE SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND
AREAS OF SLEET. SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXCEED 1
INCH PER HOUR AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS MOVE THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND MAINE...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN RATES BETWEEN .05 AND .10 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW BEHIND IT...UNTIL THE IMPULSE EXITS THE
U.S. BEGINNING BY 18Z AND TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA QUICKLY WARM TO
ALLOW FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.


..LEVIT.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
42737320 43287324 43937328 44497324 44947312 44987241
44997155 45207097 45697036 46247000 46926960 47396934
47136882 47196830 47186801 46766785 46176778 45696778
45336764 44996733 44546772 44486824 44396913 44256926
43966989 43727036 43317076 42997092 42797108 42737138
42717233
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051239
SPC MCD 051239
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-051515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN AR AND FAR ERN OK AND
SRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051239Z - 051515Z
STRONG ASCENT UNDERWAY AHEAD OF VIGOROUS TROUGH AND IS REFLECTED IN
THE INCREASING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ERN OK. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ABOVE THE CAP NOTED ON SHV/LIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS CINH CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
POTENT VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MID LEVEL ROTATION ALREADY
EVIDENT WITH STORMS W OF FSM. AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO LOW 70S
MLCAPES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

TORNADIC POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO WRN AR DURING
MORNING AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 14Z.

..HALES.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
33859465 36139494 36769369 36999298 37009138 36529106
36069110 33729286
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051245
SPC MCD 051245
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN MO...S-CENTRAL/SWRN OH...NRN
THROUGH WRN KY...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN INDIANA...EXTREME SRN IL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051245Z - 051445Z
POTENTIAL FOR MRGL SVR HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH
NEXT 3-4 HOURS...PRIMARILY NEAR AND S OF OH RIVER AND SHIFTING INTO
WRN/NRN KY. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED INVOF BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MOVING EWD...AS PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.
SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS SRN IL AND MO OZARKS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NARROW BUT
FAVORABLE PLUME OF SFC THETAE IS EVIDENT...WITH THERMAL/MOIST AXES
NEARLY JUXTAPOSED JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND FROM SWRN OH TO
BETWEEN PAH-HOP. THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 50S F OVER OH AND N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...INCREASING TO LOW
60S F FARTHER SW. PRIND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY
AHEAD OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION BY MIDMORNING. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE RAOBS SUGGEST VERY WEAK SBCINH
RESULTS...WITH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED AT SFC. EVEN THOUGH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...MUCAPES 250-500 J/KG AMIDST
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...AND INTERMITTENT SVR
POTENTIAL THEREWITH. CURRENT AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION -- W
SDF...MAY MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS SDF AREA EWD TOWARD
COUNTIES NEAR AND N OF LEX...AS IT INTERACTS WITH PROBABLE SUBTLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTION NOW OVER
S-CENTRAL OH.


..EDWARDS.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
36699044 37178913 37728732 38318633 39088413 38718296
37928397 37428573 36648801 36498966
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051307
SPC MCD 051307
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-051900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL/NE KS...NW MO
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 051307Z - 051900Z
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SITUATION EVOLVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE IN
SE COLORADO AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO KANSAS...WHILE FREEZING
RAIN RATES WILL EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR IN LOCAL AREAS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH FREEZING RAIN EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI BY 18Z.

STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE FEEDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO KANSAS AND COLORADO. HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES /FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR/ CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS
MOVES OVER THE COLD AIR FEEDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. HEAVY SNOW BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH VERTICAL MOTION AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH TIME INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FURTHER EAST...LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET...AND A COMPLEX
MESOSCALE WEATHER SITUATION EXISTS OVER THIS REGION WHICH MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO DEFINE A FOCUSED AREA OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD WET-BULB DOWN AND
CREATE AREAS WHERE SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AS
MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OVER THE REGION IN THE MID-MORNING
HOURS. BY LATE IN THE MORNING...TOWARDS 18Z...FREEZING RAIN WILL
IMPACT NW MISSOURI AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRANSLATES EASTWARD.

..LEVIT.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
37040413 37320450 37720447 38310411 39070303 39810202
39939972 40039690 40019618 40209510 40309435 40319357
39229353 38689609 38339746 38059882 37379995 37040221
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051547
SPC MCD 051547
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN KY...SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 051547Z - 051715Z
THE HIGH RISK IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPANDED NEWD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL PERSIST OVER BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH WIND
SHEAR BECOMING EXTREME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SUPERCELLS AND BOW STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...TRACKING NEWD WITH TIME ALONG WARM FRONT. TORNADOES AND
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.

NOTE: THE ORIGINAL HIGH RISK AREA ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AS WELL AS NWRN MS.


..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
35218848 35038930 35059054 35809160 36339148 37249036
37878914 37778797 37088727 36258776
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051618
SPC MCD 051618
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-051745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN MO...WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051618Z - 051745Z
SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN
OK...SWRN MO AND WRN AR. INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE BY EARLY AFTN.

PRIMARY MID-LVL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS W TX AT
MID-MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS N TX AND OK LATER THIS
AFTN. RECENT UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER ACROSS ERN OK
SUGGESTS THAT LARGER SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE IMPULSE WAS
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION.

SFC COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STEADILY BEEN MOVING SEWD INTO
SERN OK THROUGH THE MORNING. THUS FAR...TSTMS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
ELEVATED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONT. BUT...WITH THE APCH OF THE
WAVE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR MORE SFC-BASED ACTIVITY
AS INHIBITION WEAKENS VIA LIFT/MOISTENING. PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND HEAT AND WITH MODEST INSOLATION
OCCURRING ACROSS ERN OK INTO NWRN AR/SWRN MO...MLCAPES WILL APPROACH
1000-1500 J/KG BY MID-AFTN.

12Z RAOBS SHOW NEARLY 8 CM/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LVLS AND GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE PSBL INITIALLY WITH
RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL. AS THE STORMS TRANSITION INTO A MORE
SFC-BASED VARIETY...0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND RELATIVELY
LOW LCL/S WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.


..RACY/SMITH.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
34209706 36109580 37069433 37159321 36069300 34689356
34059497
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051716
SPC MCD 051716
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX REGION NEWD INTO SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051716Z - 051845Z
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE UPCOMING
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTN OWING TO CONFLICTING
MODEL GUIDANCE.

LDB/PAT PROFILERS COUPLED WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY
SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION. WIND IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER HAS VEERED TO WSWLY SINCE
ABOUT 14Z. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...VSBL SATL AND RADAR PORTRAY A
DEEPENING OF THE MID-LVL CONVECTION JUST E OF DALLAS AND OVER NERN
TX NEWD INTO SWRN AR. BUT...UNTIL 18Z SOUNDING DATA ARRIVES...IT IS
UNCERTAIN ON HOW THIS WAVE IS MODULATING THE THERMAL FIELDS.
INHIBITION CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
BUT...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS VIA LIFT AND WARMS FROM
BELOW...INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTN. AT THAT
TIME...THE MID-LVL CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION...SIMILAR TO LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/NSSL.

VWP FROM LITTLE ROCK EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH
0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 260 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55
KTS. IF/WHEN TSTMS BECOME SFC-BASED...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES IN
THE MID-LVLS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR ASSOCD WITH DISCRETE
STORM STRUCTURES. FARTHER W...DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY
AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.

..RACY/SMITH.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...FWD...
32029609 32459608 33239572 34029484 35089353 35909305
36969227 37669071 37368941 35689019 33869120 32939166
32319231 31709388
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051811
SPC MCD 051811
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-051945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AND WRN MS...FAR ERN AR...SWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051811Z - 051945Z
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...AND A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR WITH 63-66 F DEWPOINTS COMMON. SOME CAPPING REMAINS
ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT BUT CONTINUED HEATING AND DEEPENING OF
THE MOIST BL WILL ERODE CAP FROM BELOW.

OVERALL...FORCING IS RATHER UNFOCUSED IN THE FREE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING LINES OF CU...WITH CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION...MAY RESULT IN A FEW LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS LEADING
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR STORM ROTATION...THUS ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE
TORNADOES.


..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
33179192 35759104 35978963 35858872 34698852 32658881
32209033 32289094 32569189
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052015
SPC MCD 052015
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX...SERN OK...AND EXTREME SWRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 34...

VALID 052015Z - 052145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 34 CONTINUES.
19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE MO/OK/AR BORDERS WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO A 1000 MB LOW OVER THE DFW
METROPLEX...THEN SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. A DRYLINE EXTENDED
SWD ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT...18Z
RAOBS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
INHIBITION WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY SINCE 12Z. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES AND LWR-MID 60S DEW POINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG.

STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM
SECTOR WITH RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT SWD ALONG
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL TX AND NWD INTO SERN OK. SMALLER
SHOWERS WERE INCREASING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION.

STRONGER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY MORE PARALLEL DEEP LAYER/MEAN WIND
VECTORS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT/DRYLINE WILL FAVOR MORE OF A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. BUT...AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MORE DISCRETE
CELLS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH LATE AFTN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EXTREME
SERN OK. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
STORM...MORE ISOLD WITH SWD EXTENT. BUT...RISK OF TORNADOES WILL
EXIST FARTHER E WHERE 0-1KM SRH VALUES WERE IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2.

..RACY.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
31299738 33979629 34969571 35539479 34219468 33659422
33089413 31609553
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052117
SPC MCD 052117
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN/NWRN AR...SCNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 34...35...

VALID 052117Z - 052245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 34...35...CONTINUES.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR AS LARGER SCALE LIFT CONTRIBUTES TO MOISTENING AND THE
LOW-LVLS WARM. CONSEQUENTLY...TSTMS HAVE STRENGTHENED...BOTH ALONG
THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL MO INTO NERN TX AND WELL EAST
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN OK SWD INTO NERN TX WHERE SEVERAL
ROTATING CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED. FARTHER NE...EARLIER RAINS HAVE
MITIGATED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS TSTMS...WITH ISOLD
SUPERCELLS.

N OF ABOUT THE RED RIVER INTO ECNTRL OK...NWRN AR AND SWRN MO...THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO UNDERCUT THE UPDRAFTS...LESSENING
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. BUT...IF A STORM CAN BE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WERE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.
FARTHER S WHERE MORE INSTABILITY EXISTS...PROBABILITY FOR DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE HIGHER...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND E FROM THERE /INTO PDS TORNADO WATCH
36/37/. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.

..RACY.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
35749339 34439388 33269445 32779592 34569527 35659458
35849426 37009308 37539141 36559149
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052136
SPC MCD 052136
ARZ000-LAZ000-052300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA AND AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...

VALID 052136Z - 052300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36 CONTINUES.

...INCREASING RISK FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING OVER A
LARGE PART OF AR AND NRN LA AND POINTS EWD...
21Z JACKSON SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS ERODED. INCREASING
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WAS RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SPROUTING INTO TSTMS. STRONG WIND
PROFILES AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE /LZK VWP SRH 330+
M2/S2/ ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR STRONG
TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR COVERS A LARGE REGION OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND ANY STORM THAT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED COULD BE LONG-LIVED.

LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER WRN PORTIONS
OF THE WW WITH ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR SVR TSTMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR
WEATHER PSBL.


..RACY.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
32429314 33709340 35409276 36069156 34499134 32199181
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052246
SPC MCD 052246
ILZ000-MOZ000-060045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052246Z - 060045Z
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING AND A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM FAR SRN IN ACROSS SRN
IL...WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE S. A COOLER AIR MASS
EXISTS N OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR FARTHER N
ACROSS CNTRL IL. WHILE SURFACE AIR N OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STABLE...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL THUS INCREASE AND RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE N OF THE
WARM FRONT ALONG WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW DAMAGING
BOWS MAY DEVELOP. DEPENDING UPON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF THE COOL
STABLE LAYER...SOME GUSTS MAY REACH THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...HAIL
IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES.


..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...
38558777 38518935 38049058 37769068 37789141 38569085
39329009 40038859 40148762 39898763 38748774
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052315
SPC MCD 052315
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 37...

VALID 052315Z - 060115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 37 CONTINUES.
SUPERCELLS ARE EXHIBITING VERY STRONG COUPLETS AND ARE PRODUCING
TORNADOES ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. THIS CLUSTER OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

AREA WIND PROFILERS ARE SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 300-500 M2/S2 0-1 SRH.
GIVEN STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND TREMENDOUS
SHEAR...A FEW OF THESE TORNADOES MAY BECOME VIOLENT...PRODUCING
DAMAGE OVER LONG SWATHS AND ENDANGERING LIVES.


..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...
33958992 33889092 34889043 36288949 36448890 36428810
35608797 34808840
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052326
SPC MCD 052326
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SWRN IA...FAR SERN NEB
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 052326Z - 060430Z
A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z ACROSS ERN KS AND
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1 IN/HR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RATES ON NWRN EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PLUME ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MID-MS RIVER VALLEY REGION.
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED A LOBE OF STRONGER ASCENT
PIVOTING NEWD INTO CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW
OVER SWRN OK. AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THESE FACTORS WILL FAVOR
STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND A LIKELY
DEFORMATION AXIS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...CENTERED FROM
NEAR SLN TO STJ TO LWD. FARTHER SE...ELEVATED ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER
/AS NOTED IN ACARS DATA INVOF MCI/...WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A
SLEET/SNOW MIX. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 DEG
C/KM...PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM ICT
TO MKC. DYNAMICAL COOLING WOULD SHOULD LEAD TO A THERMAL PROFILE AOB
FREEZING AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF HEAVY
SNOW.


..GRAMS.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
39309418 38749501 38119579 37719675 37729759 37929801
38429816 39449732 40259637 40839540 40879446 40739376
40079369
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052339
SPC MCD 052339
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-060115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NRN LA...INTO SE MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 35...36...37...

VALID 052339Z - 060115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
35...36...37...CONTINUES.
WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP...NEAR SATURATED
MOIST LAYER WEAKLY CAPPED BY A ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...CONTRIBUTING
TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AND...THIS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FAVORABLE
FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES. THOUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHWESTERLY MID TROPOSPHERIC JET EAST OF UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED
TO STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 100 KT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING.
AND...THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO
THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH
02-03Z.

THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH MOST CONVECTION.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
33159350 33829364 34379355 35319321 35959267 36609210
37089139 37409039 37268953 36838930 35988983 34669073
33659131 33139194 33079252 32999306
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052354
SPC MCD 052354
LAZ000-TXZ000-060130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052354Z - 060130Z
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER SERN TX AND A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG COLD FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AROUND 700 MB
ERODING CAP. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL...WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE PRESSURE
RISES PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR E STORMS
WILL PERSIST GIVEN CAPPING.

RAPID VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALONG THE FRONT MAY
MINIMIZE THE TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS RIGHT ON THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...STORMS THAT CAN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND BECOME
DISCREET WOULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT.


..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
28829623 28819693 29029706 30019620 30929546 31209377
30609377 29639390 29419457 28939532 28859572
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060015
SPC MCD 060015
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-060145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KY/SW OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 060015Z - 060145Z
SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WWS ARE LIKELY.

A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE NEAR A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
NOW THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERAL
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. BETWEEN NOW AND 03-04Z...THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS IT NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
MIGRATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THROUGH
THE VICINITY OF SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN OHIO. AND...THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. EXTREME SHEAR BELOW LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES...WHICH COULD
AFFECT LOUISVILLE...CINCINNATI ...AND ADJACENT AREAS.

..KERR.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
36908797 37678798 38718715 39478586 39548445 39028389
37768461 36678618 36628741
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060059
SPC MCD 060059
TNZ000-KYZ000-060230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 37...

VALID 060059Z - 060230Z
A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN.
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGE PERSIST OVER WRN TN AND
NRN MS. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE AT OVER 50 MPH AND
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN.

SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER MIDDLE TN AND
POINTS E...WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S OVER
ERN TN/NRN GA. HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NEWD OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 00Z
BNA SOUNDING SHOWS A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 644 MB BUT WHEN
MODIFIED FOR SURFACE OBS UPSTREAM THE PARCELS ARE UNCAPPED.
FURTHER...WIND SHEAR IS EXTREME...WITH HPX VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATING 0-1 SRH OVER 600 M2/S2. GIVEN THESE LEVELS OF
SHEAR...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TN TO REMAIN SEVERE...WITH TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT.

..JEWELL.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
36668800 36608653 36118653 35058657 35068681 35058710
35038805
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060207
SPC MCD 060207
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-060330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...ERN AR...WRN TN...NRN/WRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...37...

VALID 060207Z - 060330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36...37...CONTINUES.
PRIMARY SUPERCELL CLUSTER IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE WILL SHIFT EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT...SEVERE THREAT
WILL PERSIST FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...UNTIL
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL PASSES DURING THE 03-06Z. BY 06Z...THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE RIVER...TO THE
SOUTH OF A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MIGRATING INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA. PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MAY BE NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF EVANSVILLE IN...JACKSON TN...TUPELO AND JACKSON MS BY THIS TIME.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN SOME...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
TORNADOES WITH CELLS WITHIN...AND JUST AHEAD OF /BEFORE MERGING
INTO/...LINE. HOWEVER...WITH A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH 500 MB SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100
KT...INTO THE REAR OF LINE...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY THREAT...AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DRY MID TROPOSPHERIC
LEVELS AIDS DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE.

..KERR.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
37668922 37668801 36338795 34608861 32479006 32449188
33379215 34509170 36779043
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060319
SPC MCD 060319
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-060445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...IND...KY...OH
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 39...

VALID 060319Z - 060445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 39 CONTINUES.
ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT.

AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING...IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG HIGH
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING
AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL WAVE...ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING /60-70
KT/ SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN
03-06Z. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE LOUISVILLE AND
CINCINNATI METROPOLITAN AREAS.

EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT TORNADOES WITHIN LINE...BUT THE
CLUSTER OF MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER
REGIME...EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...APPEARS LIKELY
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN INTO THE FRANKFORT/LEXINGTON
AREAS. AND...CONTINUED WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO THE BLUE GRASS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...
36878842 38008700 39078591 39548536 39828485 40508418
40658216 39698056 37768247 36618375 36028611 35998770
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060339
SPC MCD 060339
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...

VALID 060339Z - 060515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 40 CONTINUES.
AN ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CURRENT WW SOON.
FORCING SUPPORTING ONGOING CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...NEAR/
NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 04-05Z. BUT...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL
UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE ADVANCES THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
DURING THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME. THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUING TORNADO
POTENTIAL...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM/ MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY BUOYANT.


..KERR.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
35988819 36408787 36158654 35888576 35028564 34158609
33548724 33498777 33898823
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060630
SPC MCD 060630
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-061200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NE KANSAS...NW MISSOURI...SOUTHERN IA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 060630Z - 061200Z
SNOWFALL RATES OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...MAINLY IN TRANSIENT AND LOCALIZED SNOWFALL BANDS DEVELOPING
IN A COMPLEX MESOSCALE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 06/12Z...AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF A POTENT H5 TROUGH
INTO ARKANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...BRINGING A FAVORABLE
DIVERGENT AND LEFT EXIT REGION INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS ARE THEREFORE STRONG AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RUC FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT A HEALTHY DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER THAT
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR/. HEAVIEST
RATES WILL EXIST IN SNOWFALL BANDS THAT DEVELOP IN SMALL REGIONS
WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED OR IN AREAS OF CSI BANDS.

..LEVIT.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
38409653 39049660 40039629 40869540 41589431 41969341
42109237 42139149 41659105 41179129 40709176 39969251
39309344 38869388 38259479 38119605
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060702
SPC MCD 060702
MSZ000-LAZ000-060800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060702Z - 060800Z
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SRN LA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT EXTREME SHEAR.
TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

WV IMAGERY INDICATES SUBTLE WAVE WITHIN SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTING
NEWD INTO SWRN LA ATTM. THIS APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. 06Z SOUNDING FROM SIL
INDICATED ENVIRONMENT WAS PRIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1100 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. PRIMARY
CONCERN TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN THE LIMITED FOCUS/LIFT TO WEAKEN CAP
AND GENERATE STORMS. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAY BE
OCCURRING AND WW MIGHT BE REQUIRED.


..EVANS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
29519164 30409219 31259139 31778870 30138840 29408981
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060748
SPC MCD 060748
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-060915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OH...CENTRAL/WRN WV...EXTREME SWRN PA...ERN KY...EXTREME SWRN WV
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...

VALID 060748Z - 060915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42 CONTINUES.
WELL-DEVELOPED/MATURE BLOW ECHO IS EVIDENT AS OF 745Z OVER ERN
KY...MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 55-60 KT. LEADING EDGE OF THESE
TSTMS WILL ENTER WV FROM APPROXIMATELY 8Z ONWARD. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AMIDST VERY STRONG
AMBIENT KINEMATIC PROFILES...WHICH WILL FAVOR STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SUCH LIFT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ACTIVITY EWD OUT OF WW 42 AND ACROSS WW 44 DESPITE MEAGER LAPSE
RATES...DECREASING DEW POINTS WITH EWD EXTENT...ABSENCE OF
SBCAPE...AND GENERALLY ELEVATED NATURE OF ALREADY MRGL BUOYANCY
WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DECAY OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN 3-6 HOUR
TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST PRIMARILY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER W-FACING SLOPES AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS TSTMS ENTER APPALACHIAN TERRAIN. POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT-LIVED/QLCS TYPE TORNADIC SPIN UPS...ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATIONS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY -- SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH TIME BUT WILL NOT BE GONE ALTOGETHER UNTIL ACTIVITY IS
UNAMBIGUOUSLY ROOTED ABOVE SFC. WW 42 MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND TSTM
LINE...WITH AIR MASS STABILIZED TOO MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL SVR
DEVELOPMENT.


..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
36728595 37148486 37808400 38998395 39788376 40078282
39978180 40208035 39758002 38318069 37158224 36708327
36628537
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060802 COR
SPC MCD 060802 COR
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-060915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OH...CENTRAL/WRN WV...EXTREME SWRN PA...ERN KY...EXTREME SWRN WV
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...

VALID 060802Z - 060915Z
CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ERROR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42 CONTINUES.
WELL-DEVELOPED/MATURE BLOW ECHO IS EVIDENT AS OF 745Z OVER ERN
KY...MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 55-60 KT. LEADING EDGE OF THESE
TSTMS WILL ENTER WV FROM APPROXIMATELY 8Z ONWARD. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AMIDST VERY STRONG
AMBIENT KINEMATIC PROFILES...WHICH WILL FAVOR STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SUCH LIFT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ACTIVITY EWD OUT OF WW 42 AND ACROSS WW 44 DESPITE MEAGER LAPSE
RATES...DECREASING DEW POINTS WITH EWD EXTENT...ABSENCE OF
SBCAPE...AND GENERALLY ELEVATED NATURE OF ALREADY MRGL BUOYANCY
WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DECAY OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN 3-6 HOUR
TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST PRIMARILY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER W-FACING SLOPES AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS TSTMS ENTER APPALACHIAN TERRAIN. POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT-LIVED/QLCS TYPE TORNADIC SPIN UPS...ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATIONS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY -- SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH TIME BUT WILL NOT BE GONE ALTOGETHER UNTIL ACTIVITY IS
UNAMBIGUOUSLY ROOTED ABOVE SFC. WW 42 MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND TSTM
LINE...WITH AIR MASS STABILIZED TOO MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL SVR
DEVELOPMENT.


..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
36728595 37148486 37808400 38998395 39788376 40078282
39978180 40208035 39758002 38318069 37158224 36708327
36628537
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060802 COR
SPC MCD 060802 COR
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-060915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN OH...CENTRAL/WRN WV...EXTREME SWRN
PA...ERN KY...EXTREME SWRN WV.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...

VALID 060802Z - 060915Z
CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ERROR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42 CONTINUES.
WELL-DEVELOPED/MATURE BLOW ECHO IS EVIDENT AS OF 745Z OVER ERN
KY...MOVING ENEWD APPROXIMATELY 55-60 KT. LEADING EDGE OF THESE
TSTMS WILL ENTER WV FROM APPROXIMATELY 8Z ONWARD. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AMIDST VERY STRONG
AMBIENT KINEMATIC PROFILES...WHICH WILL FAVOR STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND. SUCH LIFT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ACTIVITY EWD OUT OF WW 42 AND ACROSS WW 44 DESPITE MEAGER LAPSE
RATES...DECREASING DEW POINTS WITH EWD EXTENT...ABSENCE OF
SBCAPE...AND GENERALLY ELEVATED NATURE OF ALREADY MRGL BUOYANCY
WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DECAY OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN 3-6 HOUR
TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST PRIMARILY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER W-FACING SLOPES AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS TSTMS ENTER APPALACHIAN TERRAIN. POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT-LIVED/QLCS TYPE TORNADIC SPIN UPS...ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL
SCALE CIRCULATIONS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY -- SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH TIME BUT WILL NOT BE GONE ALTOGETHER UNTIL ACTIVITY IS
UNAMBIGUOUSLY ROOTED ABOVE SFC. WW 42 MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND TSTM
LINE...WITH AIR MASS STABILIZED TOO MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL SVR
DEVELOPMENT.


..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
36728595 37148486 37808400 38998395 39788376 40078282
39978180 40208035 39758002 38318069 37158224 36708327
36628537
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060841
SPC MCD 060841
TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN MS...WRN/CENTRAL/NRN AL...MIDDLE-ERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 41...43...

VALID 060841Z - 061045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 41...43...CONTINUES.
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES ARE PROBABLE BEFORE THESE WOULD EXPIRE AT
11Z. TORNADO THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW AREAS AND SHOULD FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED/DAMAGING
TORNADOES ACCOMPANYING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. SHORTER-LIVED/WEAKER TORNADOES ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY TSTM LINE...FROM WHICH DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AREA E OF THESE WWS ACROSS ERN TN AND MOST OF NWRN GA MAY REMAIN
CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES
THAN FARTHER W...BUT WITH DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING MAIN
TSTM BAND. AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS PORTIONS NERN/CENTRAL/SRN AL
MAY COMPEL ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT TORNADO WW ISSUANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS BEFORE PRESENT WW 41 EXPIRES.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS
REMAIN ROOTED NEAR GROUND FOR SFC THETAE VALUES CORRESPONDING TO
TEMPS AROUND 65 F AND DEW POINTS AOA ABOUT 63 F. SFC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS THIS AIR MASS ALREADY COVERING LARGE PART OF AL...NARROWING
NWD OVER MID TN FROM CSV AREA WWD TO MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS
SUPPORTS MLCAPES RANGING FROM LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVER MID TN TO
5000-800 J/KG RANGE OVER SERN MS AND SWRN AL. KINEMATIC PROFILES
WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG...WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS YIELDING 0-1 KM
SRH EXCEEDING 300 J/KG IN MANY AREAS...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50-60 KT.

..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...
31349071 33578891 35168753 36688639 36588356 34998438
32798680 31968857
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060949
SPC MCD 060949
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-KYZ000-061115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN WV...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN KY...EXTREME
SWRN VA...WRN AND NRN VA...WRN PANHANDLE OF MD.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45...

VALID 060949Z - 061115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 45
CONTINUES.

FAST MOVING BUT GENERALLY WEAKENING LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
CENTRAL/NRN WV PORTION OF WW WITHIN THE HOUR. WW MAY BE CLEARED
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AIR MASS BECOMING DRIER WITH EWD EXTENT
ACROSS WV...THEN MORE MOIST AGAIN ALONG AND E OF BLUE RIDGE ACROSS
VA. WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW LEVEL THETAE AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
RESULTS IN VERY WEAK TO NO CAPE EVIDENT ACROSS ERN WV. LIGHTNING
DATA SHOWS ACTIVITY HAS DEVOLVED FROM TSTMS TO MAINLY SHOWERS...WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING NOTED SINCE CONVECTION MOVED E OF
CRW AREA. SOME REINVIGORATION OF TSTM POTENTIAL...AND OF ASSOCIATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MAY OCCUR E OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
WRN/CENTRAL VA AFTER ABOUT 12Z. THIS IS CONDITIONAL ON STRENGTH OF
ASSOCIATED SLAB OF FORCED ASCENT BY THAT TIME. MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER ROBUST STABLE LAYER CAPPING MORE MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS VA...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F ARE
EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY
OF ADDITIONAL WW.


..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...
37168334 37488219 38008111 39108064 39597989 39607926
39557862 39277802 38977779 37857788 37097920 36878042
36858253
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061026
SPC MCD 061026
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN PANHANDLE
OF FL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...

VALID 061026Z - 061230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 44 CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS...TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SERN LA TOWARD SERN AL AND
WRN FL PANHANDLE. ACCORDINGLY...PER COORDINATION W/MOB...ANOTHER WW
MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE ACTIVITY EXITS
WW 44. MEANWHILE...WW 44 MAY BE CLEARED W OF THIN/FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIP THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 10Z FROM PIB SWWD ACROSS ERN ST MARY
PARISH LA.

PRIND GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT
EXTENDED FROM PERRY COUNTY MS SWWD ACROSS SIL AREA AT 10Z. THIS
FOLLOWS YET ANOTHER PARALLEL/BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS BY ABOUT 20
NM...OCCUPYING A PRONOUNCED SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE BASED ON STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS. TSTMS ALONG AND E OF LATTER LINE WILL ENCOUNTER
RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS...AND THEREFORE WILL EXPERIENCE GREATEST
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND MOST ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS ARE POSSIBLE...EACH OF WHICH WILL POSE
RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES. VWP TRENDS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
EACH SHOW VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AHEAD OF
ERN BAND. PRIND 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 300 J/KG...AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45-55 KT...IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELL THREAT. SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F NEAR COAST...TRENDING TO MID 60S
INLAND...WILL OFFSET SOME WEAKNESSES IN LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN WEAK CINH AND MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.


..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
29789038 31908870 32138722 32028591 31408575 30678614
30388649 30328731 30238787 30238871 30228889 29938880
29678890 29498912 29368929 29208901 29008911 28938943
29098938 29228951 29318983 29229003 29079029 29089047
29079071 29079099
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061027
SPC MCD 061027
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN PANHANDLE
OF FL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 44...

VALID 061027Z - 061230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 44 CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS...TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD ALONG GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM SERN LA TOWARD SERN AL AND
WRN FL PANHANDLE. ACCORDINGLY...PER COORDINATION W/MOB...ANOTHER WW
MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE ACTIVITY EXITS
WW 44. MEANWHILE...WW 44 MAY BE CLEARED W OF THIN/FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIP THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 10Z FROM PIB SWWD ACROSS ERN ST MARY
PARISH LA.

PRIND GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT
EXTENDED FROM PERRY COUNTY MS SWWD ACROSS SIL AREA AT 10Z. THIS
FOLLOWS YET ANOTHER PARALLEL/BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS BY ABOUT 20
NM...OCCUPYING A PRONOUNCED SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE BASED ON STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS. TSTMS ALONG AND E OF LATTER LINE WILL ENCOUNTER
RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS...AND THEREFORE WILL EXPERIENCE GREATEST
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND MOST ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS ARE POSSIBLE...EACH OF WHICH WILL POSE
RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES. VWP TRENDS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
EACH SHOW VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AHEAD OF
ERN BAND. PRIND 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 300 J/KG...AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45-55 KT...IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELL THREAT. SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F NEAR COAST...TRENDING TO MID 60S
INLAND...WILL OFFSET SOME WEAKNESSES IN LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN WEAK CINH AND MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.


..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
29789038 31908870 32138722 32028591 31408575 30678614
30388649 30328731 30238787 30238871 30228889 29938880
29678890 29498912 29368929 29208901 29008911 28938943
29098938 29228951 29318983 29229003 29079029 29089047
29079071 29079099
NNNN
ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061207
SPC MCD 061207
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-061800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA...NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 061207Z - 061800Z
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL EFFECT EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS
/INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA/...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
THIS CLASSIC SET-UP FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 06/12Z
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE VERTICAL MOTION FOR LARGE-SCALE SNOWFALL...WITH
SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS OF STRONGEST ASCENT.
POINT FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO PROLIFIC SNOWFALL PRODUCTION...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW FREEZING AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FROM DEEP PLUME ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM
SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL PEAK AROUND 18Z OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND BANDS ARE
EXPECTED.


..LEVIT.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
43489105 43169170 42629281 42329325 41859397 41389427
40929431 40459400 40269353 39919258 39939147 40149051
40578895 40878787 41278709 41898675 42658637 42978632
43518657 44018685 44228818
NNNNZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 061210
SPC MCD 061210
GAZ000-TNZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-061415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TN...WRN GA...AL...FL PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 46...47...

VALID 061210Z - 061415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 46...47...CONTINUES.
PORTIONS WRN GA...ERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE E OF WWS 46-47. SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
WITH PRIMARY BELT OF TSTMS FROM ERN TN SWWD ACROSS AL TO MS RIVER
MOUTH AREA. LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL WITH TORNADIC HISTORY IS BEING
ABSORBED BY MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND INVOF CHA. HOWEVER...A FEW OTHER
SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT FARTHER SW ACROSS AL...AS PART OF BROKEN BAND
OF STG-SVR CONVECTION EXTENDING STILL FARTHER SW OVER MS RIVER MOUTH
AREA. THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM MAINLY DAMAGING WIND OVER NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY...TO MIX OF DAMAGING GUST EVENTS AND
TORNADOES FROM NERN AL/EXTREME NWRN GA SWD.

KINEMATICALLY...VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT IN AL/SRN MS...E.G.
50-60 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THERMODYNAMICALLY...SFC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES RESIDUAL...GRADUALLY ERODING ZONE OF
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR -- LEFT OVER FROM COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME --
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL GA NWD TO SWRN NC. AVAILABLE RAOB DATA AND
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR 4-5 MORE HOURS UNTIL SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING...VERTICAL
MIXING AND MOIST ADVECTION OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE IT. NET RESULT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE NARROWING OF MOST FAVORABLE THETAE PLUME OVER
ERN TN AND NWRN GA...UNTIL CONVECTION BEGINS TO INGEST RESIDUAL
DAMMING AIR MASS AND WEAKENS. FARTHER S...HOWEVER...RICH GULF
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F WILL SPREAD FARTHER N AND
E. THIS WILL RESULT IN NET EWD PROPAGATION OF STG GRADIENT IN
SBCINH NOW EVIDENT ACROSS FAR E-CENTRAL/SERN AL...INTO WRN GA.
MLCAPES 300-800 J/KG SHOULD REMAIN COMMON FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...INCREASING THEREAFTER OVER SRN
AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS WRN GA.

..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
33148733 34398611 36168452 34768454 33298398 31338463
30288546 30148577 30388656 30468775 31608754 32628754
NNNN