SPC AC 161958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NY...WRN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLC REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE SWWD INTO
THE OH VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

...NE STATES...
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/REGION OF BROAD ASCENT ALONG THE BASE OF A
CLOSED UPR GRTLKS LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY
REGION AND NY AT MID-AFTN. TSTMS READILY FORMED EARLIER TODAY OWING
TO WEAK INHIBITION...MODEST BUOYANCY AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES/TERRAIN.
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STG-SVR TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD
ACROSS ERN NY/EC-NE PA INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND IN A ZONE FROM ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER NEWD INTO ERN VA AND DELMARVA. THIS REGION LIES
BENEATH SEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST CYCLONIC
FLOW. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT A TRANSITION TO SMALL SCALE BOWS WILL BE
LIKELY GIVING DMGG WIND GUSTS. STRONGER TSTMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING.

...OK/TX/ARKLATEX NW INTO CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
PERSISTENT REGION OF WAA CONTINUES WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
STREAK MIGRATING INTO THE UPR OH VLY. THIS APPEARS LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED STORM CLUSTER OVER SE KS AND NC-NE OK AT
MID-AFTN. OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS HAD MOVED WWD INTO SW OK AND FAR
ERN TX PNHDL WHERE CUMULUS WAS BECOMING EVIDENT. FARTHER W...ACC
WAS ALSO NOTED OVER THE TX S PLAINS.
STRONGEST INSTABILITY HAD FORMED ALONG/SW OF THE ONGOING TSTMS AND
CINH WAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...BOTH WRN EDGE OF THE
MCS AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHER HIGHER-BASED STORMS MAY EVOLVE
FROM THE ACC FARTHER W IN THE HOTTER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE TX
SPLAINS. VWP/PROFILERS SHOW SUFFICIENT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45+ KTS. THUS...INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO BOWS
WHILE PROPAGATING SE THROUGH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
TONIGHT...LEADING EDGE OF TSTM CLUSTERS WILL PROPAGATE SSE INTO THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER CNTRL/WRN OK AND PARTS OF THE LOW-ROLLING
PLAINS OF TX. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS WILL FORM ATOP THE TRAILING
COLD POOL AND TRAIN SEWD. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT LONG TERM THREATS
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
TONIGHT.
FARTHER NW...OTHER TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW FROM NE NM/E CO THROUGH E PARTS MT/WY. DEEP SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT WHILE MOISTURE DECREASES. ACROSS
THE HIGHER PLAINS...COMBINATION OF VEERING WIND PROFILES AND UPR 40S
TO MID 50S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD YIELD SCT SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..RACY/KIS.. 06/16/2008