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2009 Experimental SPC Perfect Prog(nosis) Lightning Forecasts
Automated guidance for Dry Thunderstorms using the NCEP NAM model data as input...limited to *.gov domains
Developer - Dr. Phillip Bothwell, Storm Prediction Center. Please send your comments to phillip.bothwell@noaa.gov
The Dry Thunderstorm Potential Index (DTPI) (for Day 1,2, and 3 ) is NOT A PERCENTAGE
IT IS AN INDEX from 0 to 100 (Hatched areas above 50 show areas where the cloud bases will be the highest and/or the sub-cloud humidity the lowest-leading to more evaporation)
Example: 10,000 ft agl (Most Unstable Parcel Cloud Base) / 10,000 * (100 - 30 (sub-cloud RH of 30%)) = 70 DTPI (cloud base is normalized (divided) by 10000))
DAY 1 forecasts are 3 hourly, DAY 2 are 6 hourly, DAY 3 is 24 hours - Start time in lower left of figures
(Note: 6 and 24 hourly forecasts computed from maximum probability in any 3 hourly period)
INPUT DATA - 06 UTC NAM; Probabilities-Solid contours (1,5,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90%); DTPI (NOT a probability)-Hatched Contours(50,75 and 100)
Reference papers (*.doc) and PowerPoint Presentation at bottom of this Web page
NW US Day 1 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and Dry Thunderstorm Potential Index (DTPI) click here for forecast
NW US Day 1 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and Dry Thunderstorm Potential Index (DTPI) click here for forecast
NW US Day 2 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
NW US Day 2 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
NW US Day 1,2,3 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
NW US Day 1,2,3 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
SW US Day 1 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and Dry Thunderstorm Potential Index (DTPI) click here for forecast
SW US Day 1 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and Dry Thunderstorm Potential Index (DTPI) click here for forecast
SW US Day 2 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
SW US Day 2 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
SW US Day 1,2,3 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
SW US Day 1,2,3 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
EC US Day 1 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and Dry Thunderstorm Potential Index (DTPI) click here for forecast
EC US Day 1 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and Dry Thunderstorm Potential Index (DTPI) click here for forecast
EC US Day 2 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
EC US Day 2 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
EC US Day 1,2,3 Probability of 1 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
EC US Day 1,2,3 Probability of 100 or more CG flashes and DTPI click here for forecast
Reference Materials click here for LTG REF Paper 1 click here for LTG REF Paper 2
Reference Materials click here for 2007 LTG PowerPoint Presentation1