Probability of MCS Maintenance

348 warm-season MCS proximity soundings from a variety of MCS types were used to develop this parameter. Though hypothesis testing and discriminant analysis on hundreds of sounding parameters, the following four parameters were selected to develop the probabilities:

1) maximum bulk shear (m/s) in the 0-1 and 6-10 km layer
2) 3-8 km lapse rate (degrees C/km)
3) most unstable CAPE
4) 3-12 km mean wind speed (m/s)

Coniglio, M.C., and S.F. Corfidi, 2006: Forecasting the speed and longevity of
    severe mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, Severe Local
    Storms Symposium, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Atlanta, GA, CD-ROM.