**Probability of MCS Maintenance**

348 warm-season MCS proximity soundings from a variety of MCS types were used to
develop this parameter. Though hypothesis testing and discriminant analysis on
hundreds of sounding parameters, the following four parameters were selected to
develop the probabilities:

1) maximum bulk shear (m/s) in the 0-1 and 6-10 km layer

2) 3-8 km lapse rate (degrees C/km)

3) most unstable CAPE

4) 3-12 km mean wind speed (m/s)

Reference:

Coniglio, M.C., and S.F. Corfidi, 2006: Forecasting the speed and longevity of

severe mesoscale convective systems. Preprints, Severe Local

Storms Symposium, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Atlanta, GA, CD-ROM.