** DEFINITIONS ** [CPR] = Combined probability (Prob_Field_1 x Prob_Field_2 x ... x Prob_Field_N) [MAX] = Maximum from any member at each grid point [MD] = Median [MDXN] = Median value contoured. The dashed red line is the union of all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where at least one of the 22 members exceeds the value of the first median contour). The dashed blue line is the intersection of all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where all 22 members exceed the value value of the first median contour). [MIN] = Minimum from any member at each grid point [MN] = Mean [MNSD] = Mean and Standard Deviation [PM] = Probability Matched Mean Value [PR] = Probability (percentage of members meeting/exceeding some condition) [SP] = Spaghetti ** SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE FIELDS ** [MN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Mean) -> The average maximum parcel top of all members containing positive MUCAPE. The maximum parcel elevation for each member is determined by calculating the altitude where the negative buoyancy above the equilibrium level equals the positive buoyancy below the equilibrium level. The effects of entrainment, etc. are parameterized by simply scaling the maximum parcel altitude by 90% (based on the estimates of Bluestein et al. 1988). The mean of the average wind in the lower half of the convective cloud (between LCL and EL) is also shown. [MD]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Median) -> As above except the median value rather than the mean value. The median of the average wind in the lower half of the convective cloud (between LCL and EL) is also shown. [MAX]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Max_Any_Mem) -> The maximum parcel altitude from any member containing positive MUCAPE. The convective top altitude is described above. [MIN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Min_Any_Mem) -> The minimum parcel altitude from any member containing positive MUCAPE. The convective top altitude is described above. [PR]:Calibrated_Prob_Tstm(03HR) -> 3hr calibrated probability of a thunderstorm within ~12 miles of a point. The calibration adjusts the probabilistic value predicted by the SREF such that forecasts should, over time, produce reliable probabilistic forecasts. [CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_____<=31KFT -> The conditional probability convective cloud tops are below 31,000 feet MSL. Only members with postive MUCAPE are considered -- hence the probability is conditional by considering only the members with MUCAPE (and not necessarily all 22 members). This is an uncalibrated statistics; no adjustment has been made to the probabilistic forecast such that it is purely then percentage of members meeting the specified threshold. [CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_31KFT-37KFT -> As above, except the conditional probability convective cloud tops are between 31,000 and 37,000 feet. [CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_____>=37KFT -> As above, except the conditional probability convective cloud tops exceed 37,000 feet. [PR]:Prob_Top_____<=31KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> This is the product of the conditional probability convective cloud tops are below 31,000 feet and the calibrated probability of a thunderstorm. The result is an estimate of the total probability convective cloud tops are below 31,000 feet. [PR]:Prob_Top_31KFT-37KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> As above except an estimate of the total probability convective cloud tops are between 31,000 and 37,000 feet. [PR]:Prob_Top_____>=37KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> As above except an estimate of the total probability convective cloud tops exceed 37,000 feet.