** Aviation Weather Options **


** DEFINITIONS **

[CPR]  = Combined probability (Prob_Field_1 x Prob_Field_2 x ... x 
         Prob_Field_N)
[MAX]  = Maximum from any member at each grid point
[MD]   = Median
[MDXN] = Median value contoured.  The dashed red line is the union of 
         all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where 
         at least one of the 22 members exceeds the value of the first 
         median contour).  The dashed blue line is the intersection of
         all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where 
         all 22 members exceed the value value of the first median 
         contour).
[MIN]  = Minimum from any member at each grid point
[MN]   = Mean
[MNSD] = Mean and Standard Deviation
[PM]   = Probability Matched Mean Value
[PR]   = Probability (percentage of members meeting/exceeding some 
         condition)
[SP]   = Spaghetti


** SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE FIELDS **

[MN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Mean) -> The average maximum parcel top of all members 
                                   containing positive MUCAPE. The maximum parcel
                                   elevation for each member is determined by 
                                   calculating the altitude where the negative 
                                   buoyancy above the equilibrium level equals the 
                                   positive buoyancy below the equilibrium level. 
                                   The effects of entrainment, etc. are parameterized 
                                   by simply scaling the maximum parcel altitude by
                                   90% (based on the estimates of Bluestein et al. 
                                   1988).  The mean of the average wind in the lower
                                   half of the convective cloud (between LCL and EL)
                                   is also shown.

[MD]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Median) -> As above except the median value rather than 
                                     the mean value. The median of the average wind 
                                     in the lower half of the convective cloud 
                                     (between LCL and EL) is also shown.

[MAX]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Max_Any_Mem) -> The maximum parcel altitude from any member
                                           containing positive MUCAPE. The convective
                                           top altitude is described above.

[MIN]:Convective_Cloud_Top(Min_Any_Mem) -> The minimum parcel altitude from any member
                                           containing positive MUCAPE. The convective
                                           top altitude is described above.

[PR]:Calibrated_Prob_Tstm(03HR) -> 3hr calibrated probability of a thunderstorm within
                                   ~12 miles of a point. The calibration adjusts the
                                   probabilistic value predicted by the SREF such that
                                   forecasts should, over time, produce reliable 
                                   probabilistic forecasts.

[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_____<=31KFT -> The conditional probability convective cloud
                                          tops are below 31,000 feet MSL. Only members
                                          with postive MUCAPE are considered -- hence
                                          the probability is conditional by considering
                                          only the members with MUCAPE (and not 
                                          necessarily all 22 members). This is an 
                                          uncalibrated statistics; no adjustment has
                                          been made to the probabilistic forecast such
                                          that it is purely then percentage of members
                                          meeting the specified threshold.

[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_31KFT-37KFT -> As above, except the conditional probability 
                                          convective cloud tops are between 31,000 and 
                                          37,000 feet.
 
[CPR]:Conditional_Prob_Top_____>=37KFT -> As above, except the conditional probability 
                                          convective cloud tops exceed 37,000 feet.

[PR]:Prob_Top_____<=31KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> This is the product of the conditional 
                                           probability convective cloud tops are below
                                           31,000 feet and the calibrated probability
                                           of a thunderstorm. The result is an estimate
                                           of the total probability convective cloud tops
                                           are below 31,000 feet.

[PR]:Prob_Top_31KFT-37KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> As above except an estimate of the total 
                                           probability convective cloud tops are between
                                           31,000 and 37,000 feet.

[PR]:Prob_Top_____>=37KFT(Cond_X_Calib) -> As above except an estimate of the total 
                                           probability convective cloud tops exceed
                                           37,000 feet.