** DEFINITIONS ** [CPR] = Combined probability (Prob_Field_1 x Prob_Field_2 x ... x Prob_Field_N) [MAX] = Maximum from any member at each grid point [MD] = Median [MDXN] = Median value contoured. The dashed red line is the union of all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where at least one of the 16 members exceeds the value of the first median contour). The dashed blue line is the intersection of all members at the lowest contour value plotted (i.e., where all 16 members exceed the value value of the first median contour). [MIN] = Minimum from any member at each grid point [MN] = Mean [MNSD] = Mean and Standard Deviation [PM] = Probability Matched Mean Value [PR] = Probability (percentage of members meeting/exceeding some condition) [SP] = Spaghetti [TEXT] = Text product of the NAME zone averaged precipitation ** SPECIAL NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME) SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ** A small sample of short-range ensemble products are provided for evaluation during the NAME field program. The SPC calibrated forecasts of the probability of a thunderstorm are downscaled to a 4 km grid and recalibrated with lightning information on the same 4 km grid. A similar technique is used to take the PQPFs from the NCEP/SPC short-range ensemble and downscale/calibrate the forecast to a 4 km grid.These results are provided for scientific purposes commensurate with the mission of the SPC and its appliation of short-range ensembles in the prediction of severe weather. These products should be considered highly developmental and non-operational.** SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE FIELDS ** [PR]Thunderstorm ->Probability of a thunderstorm for the 3-hr period ending at the forecast time. The probabilities are based on the SPC SREF calibrated thunderstorm forecast on a 40 km grid, but recalibrated to a 4 km grid using surface elevation and recent lightning observations. [CPR]Organized Severe Thunderstorm ->The combined (or joint) probability of a severe thunderstorm. The predictors are the probability of a thunderstorm (on the 4 km grid) X probability DCAPE >= 500 J/kg X probability MUCAPE >= 500 J/kg X probability deep layer shear >= 20 kts. This is an uncalibrated product and only meant to delineate areas where CAPE, DCAPE, shear, and thunderstorm potential are favorable for organized thunderstorms with potentially damaging winds. [PR]24-hr Total Pcpn >= 0.01" ->Probability total precipiation exceeds 0.01" for the 24-hr period ending at the forecast time. (Therefore, this product is only available at F24 to F63.) [PR]24-hr Total Pcpn >= 0.25" ->As above but PQPF >= 0.25" [PR]24-hr Total Pcpn >= 0.50" ->As above but PQPF >= 0.50" [PR]24-hr Total Pcpn >= 1.00" ->As above but PQPF >= 1.00" [PR]24-hr Total Pcpn >= 2.00" ->As above but PQPF >= 2.00" [TEXT]24-hr Zone Ave QPFs ->NAME zone averaged QPF for the 24-hr period ENDING at the forecast hour selected (e.g., using the 09 UTC SREF, the "F24" forecast represents the first 24 hours of the SREF forecast period from 09 UTC to 09 UTC). The areal averaged QPF is determined from the downscaled PQPFs on the 4 km grid in the Tier 1 NAME region. Average values are calculated by summing the probabilistic forecasts at the various thresholds on the 4 km grid within each of the nine zones, and then dividing by the number of grid points within the zone. The resulting areal average thus represents the most likely (zone averaged) QPF predicted by the SREF. Terrain Map ->Surface elevation of the SPC SREF NAME domain (meters)All SREF information presented herein is for guidance purposes only and should not be confused with official SPC operational forecasts. Links to official SPC operational products are found at the bottom of every menu. Many of the SREF products were developed for testing the utility of SREF analysis in the prediction of SPC mission critical items, including: thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms, large scale critical fire weather conditions, and mesoscale areas of hazardous winter weather. In order to accomplish this goal and test new and unqiue methods of SREF application in an operational environment, many fields not produced in the NCEP postprocessor were calculated locally for SPC purposes.