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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Apr 2, 2015 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 2 08:57:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150402 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150402 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 225,602 8,228,631 Albuquerque, NM...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020855

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOUR CORNERS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE AZ...MOST OF NM...WRN TX
   PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL/SE SD...SW/CNTRL MN...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE
   OVER CNTRL CA AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN -- MOVING EWD.
   EWD/SEWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE SASKATCHEWAN
   SHORTWAVE MOVING IN WRN ONTARIO/UPPER MS VALLEY AND THE CNTRL CA
   SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL
   OCCLUDE AS IT MOVE EWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD
   FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MID MS VALLEY...AND SRN
   PLAINS. LOW AHEAD OF THE CNTRL CA SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM
   THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. BOTH OF THIS LOWS WILL HELP
   MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CONUS.

   ...SOUTHWEST...FOUR CORNERS...SRN PLAINS...
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SE
   CO BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SEWD INTO NW TX AND THEN SWWD
   INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED
   WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW
   ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS W OF THE DRYLINE. THE STRONGEST WINDS -- I.E. SUSTAINED
   AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH -- ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
   ARE EXPECTED OVER NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE.  RH VALUES THROUGHOUT
   THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE MID
   TEENS. RESULTANT COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT
   IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.
   DESPITE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...UNRECEPTIVE FUELS
   PRECLUDED EXTENDING THE CRITICAL RISK INTO E-CNTRL AZ/W-CNTRL
   NM...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AZ...AND TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  

   ...SRN CA...
   RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGES AND THE
   HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN LOS ANGELES HAVE REPORTED GUSTS FROM 35 TO
   40 MPH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGEST THESE STRONG GUSTS WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DISSOCIATION
   BETWEEN THE STRONGEST GUSTS /EARLY MORNING/ AND THE LOWEST RH VALUES
   /LATE AFTERNOON/...ENOUGH OVERLAP EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NWLY
   THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS
   THE GREAT BASIN. LAX-TPH GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 8-9 MB BY
   12Z FRIDAY..SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS
   COUPLED WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY AND MODERATELY DRY FUELS
   WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...SWRN/CNTRL MN...AND NRN WI...
   DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN TIGHT WHICH...WHEN
   COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED WLY WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH.
   HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH MIN
   RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT. PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SE SD...NW/CNTRL
   MN MAY SEE RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
   THE AREA HAS NOT MOISTENED FUELS ENOUGH TO DAMPEN THE FIRE THREAT
   PLUS THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AND
   FINE FUELS. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS S-CNTRL/SE SD AND SW/CNTRL MN WITH ELEVATED TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. 

   ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
   TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE OH
   VALLEY AND A HIGH OFF THE NC/VA COAST WILL PROMOTE SLY WINDS
   APPROACHING 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES IN MID 70S ARE EXPECTED WITH
   RESULTANT RH VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT. THESE METEOROLOGICAL
   CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MODERATELY RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL
   SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/02/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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