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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Apr 25, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 25 16:53:04 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170425 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170425 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 82,528 6,510,422 Phoenix, AZ...El Paso, TX...Tucson, AZ...Mesa, AZ...Glendale, AZ...
   FNUS21 KWNS 251648

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z


   The ongoing critical area has been expanded westward to include
   parts of central of southern AZ. Across this region, confidence has
   increased that RH values will fall into the 10-15% range for a few
   hours this afternoon in combination with strong/gusty winds of 20-25
   mph. Otherwise, only a small southward extension has been made to
   the critical area in Presidio/Brewster counties in west TX where
   fuels are dry.

   An elevated area has been introduced for parts of the FL peninsula,
   where a dry low-level airmass is in place due to a cold front
   passage. 12Z sounding from Tampa Bay FL indicated a PWAT value of
   just 0.42", and RH values should fall into the 30-40% range this
   afternoon across interior portions of the central/southern FL
   peninsula. Although low-level flow is not expected to be overly
   strong through the day, sustained west-northwesterly winds around 10
   mph and continued dry fuels in many locations will support an
   elevated fire weather threat. Locally critical conditions may be
   realized where winds approach 15 mph, but this is expected to occur
   on just a brief/spotty basis.

   ..Gleason.. 04/25/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

   An upper trough will progress eastward across the Four Corners
   region today and into the adjacent High Plains during the overnight
   hours. This will bring a band of enhanced deep-layer westerly flow
   across much of AZ/NM into western TX and northeast toward the mid-MS
   Valley. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure will be
   centered over NM into the TX Panhandle and OK. Strong winds and very
   dry conditions will combine across parts of the region, leading to
   elevated and critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. 

   ...Southern AZ/NM into Western TX...

   Widespread breezy conditions are expected across the region today as
   mid/upper level height fall accompany the eastward-advancing trough.
   A band of strong surface winds and low RH conditions are expected to
   develop across portions of southern and central AZ. Northwest winds
   around 15-25 mph with higher gusts are forecast while RH values fall
   into the 12-20 percent range. This will lead to several hours of
   elevated to critical fire weather conditions. 

   Further east, surface winds are expected to be even stronger as
   surface low pressure deepens modestly through the day. Widespread
   west/southwest winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts are expected
   across much of southern and central NM into the TX Panhandle and far
   western TX. Above-normal high temperatures are also expected across
   southern NM into west TX as highs top out in the mid 80s to low 90s.
   Temperatures will warm quickly due to downsloping off the central NM
   mountains. This will result in deep boundary-layer mixing through
   the morning, and wind speeds will increase quickly while RH values
   plummet. Expect the lowest RH values across southern NM into far
   western TX where values from 7-13 percent will be common. Where
   fuels are dry, this will result in several hours of critical
   conditions. There is some uncertainty in the eastward extent of the
   critical area due to recent green-up of fuels across parts of the
   Trans-Pecos to the TX South Plains, so portions of this area remain
   in the elevated delineation, but likely will experience critical
   meteorological conditions. 

   Further north across central NM into the TX Panhandle, RH values
   will be higher, in the 18-30 percent range but wind speeds will
   remain quite gusty. However, given the marginality of RH values,
   only elevated conditions are expected.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

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