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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Apr 19, 2018 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 19 15:59:02 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180419 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20180419 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 39,646 355,318 Farmington, NM...Gallup, NM...Show Low, AZ...Grants, NM...Bloomfield, NM...
Critical 165,252 10,633,165 Phoenix, AZ...Denver, CO...Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...Mesa, AZ...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191558

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO
   WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW
   MEXICO...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   COLORADO...

   ...Portions of the Southwest through the central High Plains...

   The elevated, critical and extremely critical areas remain unchanged
   from the previous forecast. The only change as been to expand the
   isolated dry thunderstorm area northward to the NM/CO border. This
   area will see the best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms into
   the evening hours based on latest hi-res guidance. For more forecast
   details, see the previous discussion below. 

   ...Portions of Georgia to southeast Virginia...

   The elevated fire weather area has been expanded northward into
   southeast VA. Dry and windy conditions, similar to those across the
   Carolinas, will develop during the afternoon hours behind a cold
   front. RH values from 20-30 percent will align with westerly winds
   around 15 mph with higher gusts. Where fuels are dry, this will
   result in elevated fire weather conditions.

   ..Leitman.. 04/19/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   The greatest fire weather concerns this afternoon will be tied to a
   vigorous mid-level system migrating eastward across central
   California and Nevada.  A strong (80-90 kt) mid-level jet will round
   the base of this disturbance and overspread dry areas of the
   Southwest during peak heating hours.  Immediately downstream of this
   disturbance, a surface low will deepen across southern Utah.  The
   aforementioned synoptic features will amplify surface flow near the
   Four Corners region amidst a very dry low-level airmass.

   Farther east, a relatively dry post-frontal airmass will overspread
   areas of the Carolinas and Georgia, with elevated fire weather
   conditions developing there during the afternoon.

   ...Portions of the Southwest through the central High Plains...
   A broad area of southerly surface flow will develop across the
   region in response to the aforementioned synoptic features and
   vertical mixing processes.  20-25 mph southerly flow will become
   common across the High Plains - increasing to 30-40 mph in areas of
   eastern Arizona and western New Mexico nearer/beneath the mid-level
   jet.  Meanwhile, a dry low-level airmass will remain in place, with
   single-digit dewpoints resulting in extremely low RH across Arizona
   and New Mexico northward into areas along the Utah/Colorado border. 
   These conditions, in conjunction with dry fuels (evidenced by
   ongoing large fire activity) will promote rapid fire spread and
   extreme behavior, and an extremely critical fire weather delineation
   remains in place where this potential is the greatest.  Surrounding
   the extremely critical delineation, winds will be somewhat weaker
   (20-30 mph with higher gusts) and RH slightly higher(7-15%).  A
   critical delineation remains in place in these areas.  

   Farther east into the central Plains, 20-25 mph surface flow will
   develop from the Transpecos northward through northeastern Colorado.
    10-15% RH values will exist in portions of the Colorado Front Range
   and adjacent higher elevations (around 10-15%), necessitating a
   critical area there.  Farther south and east (into the New Mexico
   Plains and adjacent areas of Texas), RH values will be somewhat
   higher given very modest low-level moisture advection. 
   Nevertheless, heating/mixing will result in areas of 13-17% RH
   values, with areas of locally/briefly critical fire weather possible
   across the elevated area.

   Lastly, lift associated with the approaching mid-level wave will
   combine with gradually increasing low-level moisture across
   south-central New Mexico near the Rio Grande Valley.  A few
   high-based thunderstorms may develop and produce locally wetting
   rainfall and downbursts.  Lightning strikes on the periphery of
   heavier cores may result in fire starts given dry fuels in the
   region, and erratic surface winds may complicate any fire
   suppression efforts that may be ongoing.  An isolated dry thunder
   area has been drawn to address this threat.

   ...Carolinas/Georgia...
   A relatively dry airmass will overspread the region this afternoon
   behind a cold front entering the western Atlantic near the Gulf
   Stream.  10-15 mph northwesterly surface flow will become common
   behind the front, and RH values should fall into the 18-30% range
   during peak heating hours as temperatures rise into the 70s F. 
   Despite recent rainfall over the past three days, areas of dry fine
   fuels may support rapid fire spread, and an elevated fire weather
   delineation has been made to address this potential.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: April 19, 2018
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