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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Aug 20, 2014 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 20 16:49:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140820 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20140820 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201648

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

   VALID 201700Z - 211200Z


   ...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL ORE...EXTREME S-CNTRL WA...
   THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
   THIS REGION REMAINS VALID.  THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO TRIM THE SRN
   PORTION OF THE AREA TO PRIMARILY RETAIN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHERE
   THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
   SUSTAINED WLY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 20 MPH.

   ...COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA...
   NUMEROUS CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING
   EAST OF AN UPPER LOW IN A PERSISTENT SW/NE-ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS.  GIVEN THE TRAINING NATURE OF THESE STORMS AND PW
   VALUES AT OR NEAR 1.0 INCH...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
   WETTING RAINS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
   THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE
   CLOUD BAND...WHERE PW VALUES ARE LOWER. THE OVERALL
   CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...IS TOO LOW TO
   HIGHLIGHT AN AREA.

   ..JIRAK.. 08/20/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY-MORNING MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF A
   WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SRN CA. THIS FEATURE IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH TO ITS N
   EXTENDS INTO THE NWRN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WILL BRANCH
   NWWD/NWD FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN
   STATES. ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL ORE...EXTREME S-CNTRL WA -- STRONG WIND/LOW
   RH POTENTIAL...
   A MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20
   MPH IN A LOCALIZED AREA FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND THE
   COLUMBIA GORGE TO PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO FALL TO 15-25 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH THESE WINDS
   AMIDST DRY FUELS...SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
   LACK OF AN EVEN TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
   CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
   BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN WY -- STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL...
   WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 TO LOCALLY/OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
   TO OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
   THAT RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S
   WITHOUT A WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS. WITHOUT LOWER RH...THE RISK FOR
   ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR FIRE-WEATHER
   DELINEATIONS.

   ...COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA -- DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS ARE DIURNALLY ENHANCED AMIDST
   MARGINAL BUOYANCY. MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE STORM
   MOTIONS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND SOME RISK FOR
   LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS WILL EXIST PROVIDED THE PRESENCE OF DRY
   FUELS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON THE EDGES OF RAIN CORES.
   HOWEVER...GPS DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ALL SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO
   SUPPORT WETTING RAINS WITH MANY STORMS -- E.G. THE PRESENCE OF
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PW VALUES OF 0.7 INCH TO LOCALLY OVER
   1.0 INCH. THIS WILL IMPEDE THE OVERALL RISK FOR STRICTLY DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS SUCH THAT FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN
   INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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