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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
May 24, 2016 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue May 24 15:47:02 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160524 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160524 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 31,120 169,803 Roswell, NM...Carlsbad, NM...Artesia, NM...Lovington, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241543

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   VALID 241700Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
   NEW MEXICO...

   RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO
   CRITICAL IN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  A
   CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS /EXCEEDING
   20 MPH/ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OTERO TO LEA COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO
   THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH 5-10 PERCENT RH VALUES. 1500 UTC
   OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING CRITICAL WIND/RH
   VALUES AS WELL.

   ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE /SPECIFICALLY THE RAP/ SUGGEST THAT RH
   VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR/JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH 10-15 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THIS...ALONG WITH
   DRY FUELS IN THE REGION...SUGGEST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   AND PARTS OF THAT AREA HAVE BEEN DELINEATED ACCORDINGLY.

   ..COOK.. 05/24/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0312 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM PARTS OF
   THE SWRN CONUS TO THE N-CNTRL CONUS. THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIE BETWEEN
   WRN CONUS TROUGHING AND A RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
   GULF COAST. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND N/S ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...ERN/CNTRL/SRN NM...FAR W TX...WRN OK
   PANHANDLE...
   W OF THE DRYLINE...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AMID THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER RISK. LOW-END CRITICAL
   FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NERN/E-CNTRL NM WHERE SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 20-22 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON RH AROUND 5-10 PERCENT.
   WITH DRY FUELS IN THESE LOCATIONS...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN ADDED.
   ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   IN THE SURROUNDING ELEVATED AREA...WHERE CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY
   STRONG WINDS OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS
   LIMITED IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DESPITE LOW
   RH. WHILE ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
   MAY EXTEND E OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS INTO PARTS OF THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...AND VICINITY...UNFAVORABLE FUEL
   CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD OWING TO FUEL GREEN-UP PRECLUDES
   FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THESE AREAS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: May 24, 2016
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