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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Apr 25, 2015 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 25 15:56:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150425 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150425 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 11,116 61,065 Carlsbad, NM...Artesia, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251551

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   VALID 251700Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PART OF SE NM AND SW TX...

   MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA BASED ON LATEST MODEL
   TRENDS...FUELS INFORMATION...AND RECENT RAINFALL.
   OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ON TRACK. SEE DISCUSSION
   BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/25/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0321 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A
   TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
   TRACK EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE AN EWD-MOVING RIDGE BUILDS NWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS. AREAS OF
   PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO
   THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ERN
   TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE AND FRONTS.

   ...PORTIONS OF WRN TX...NM...FAR SERN AZ...
   MODESTLY ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW S OF THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL
   RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WSWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS
   ACROSS THE REGION AS VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS THIS
   AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
   EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH RH OF 10-14 PERCENT ACROSS THE CRITICAL
   AREA COVERING A SMALL PART OF SERN NM AND FAR SW TX WHERE DRY FUELS
   EXIST. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND
   LOCAL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS TO THE FLOW AROUND THESE MOUNTAINS...WILL
   FURTHER SUPPORT THESE CONDITIONS.

   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...A BROAD ELEVATED AREA COVERS THE
   REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS TOO LOW
   FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION TO THE W/S OF THE CRITICAL AREA WITHOUT
   STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THESE REGIONS. TO THE NW OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA...THE LACK OF WARMER TEMPERATURES/LOWER RH PRECLUDE CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION. DESPITE MARGINALLY CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
   POTENTIALLY EXTENDING NE/E OF THE CRITICAL AREA...GREEN-UP AND
   RELATED FUEL MOISTENING IN THESE LOCATIONS PRECLUDE CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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