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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Oct 1, 2014 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 1 08:27:03 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141001 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20141001 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010825

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRACKING THROUGH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
   AREAS FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN CONUS TO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH
   IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND SW
   STATES WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...A
   MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE EWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SUBSIDENT NWLY
   FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE IMPULSE WILL /1/ ENHANCE SFC
   RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...AND /2/ PROMOTE
   AN INFLUX OF DEEP DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W-CNTRL/SWRN CONUS.

   ...PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WRN/SWRN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   REGIME OF CNTRL-GREAT-BASIN SFC RIDGING WILL MODESTLY ENHANCE NLY TO
   ELY SFC WINDS ALONG THE CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT
   FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA. RELATED
   DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-AIDED WARMING/DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   RESULT IN MINIMUM RH FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS IN
   MANY AREAS...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.

   FOR LOCATIONS FROM ERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EWD ACROSS VENTURA
   COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY AND SWRN SAN BERNARDINO
   COUNTY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT
   FOOTHILLS...AN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER AREA IS IN EFFECT. THIS IS
   WHERE THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY
   TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NELY TO ELY
   WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS -- STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH
   FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO 8-15 PERCENT
   AMIDST DRY FUELS IN THESE AREAS. AS SUCH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
   TONIGHT...AS RH VALUES REMAIN LOW. LOCALIZED BORDERLINE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES
   REINFORCED. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK FOR STRONG
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IS TOO LIMITED FOR CRITICAL DELINEATION...IN
   THE ABSENCE OF A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE D1/WED
   PERIOD. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED FOR D1/WED.

   ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON A
   SPOTTY/BRIEF/MARGINAL BASIS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HILLS
   SURROUNDING THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND LOCATIONS SWD TO THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
   CA...WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
   GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 MPH -- WITHOUT A TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE 
   GRADIENT -- TO MITIGATE THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK. AS SUCH...ADDITIONAL
   FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 10/01/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: October 01, 2014
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