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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Mar 25, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 25 15:12:03 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170325 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170325 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 28,732 204,004 Sierra Vista, AZ...Deming, NM...Silver City, NM...Socorro, NM...Truth or Consequences, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251507

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1007 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
   SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...

   Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.  Critical fire
   weather conditions are most likely in lower elevations of
   central/west-central New Mexico in addition to all areas of
   southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico.  Southwesterly
   low-level flow will gradually increase to 20+ mph in most areas
   during the afternoon in conjunction with an approaching mid-level
   speed max, with continued dry fuels and near single-digit RH values
   all characteristic of a critical fire weather threat in these areas.

   See the previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/25/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed low across the south-central United States will lift
   northeast toward the Great Lakes as an upstream low-amplitude,
   fast-moving trough will move from California toward the southern
   Plains. At the surface, cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains
   will act to strengthen the pressure gradient by late in the forecast
   period.

   ...Southwest United States...
   Mid-level, short-wave ridging will be in place across southwest
   United States during the day on Saturday, ahead of the
   aforementioned trough. This ridge will favor another day of warm,
   dry conditions across portions of the southwest. Given the dry
   airmass in place, these warm temperatures will allow for minimum
   afternoon relative humidity to fall into the 7-15% range. 

   Mid-level flow will increase from west-to-east across the area
   during the afternoon as the trough approaches. Forecast soundings
   suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for downward
   transport of this stronger flow across the area. At present the area
   across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico appear the most
   likely to experience strong, gusty winds coinciding with the minimum
   in relative humidity. Here, critical fire-weather conditions appear
   likely for at least a few hours. Surrounding the critical
   fire-weather area, especially farther east, low-level winds appear
   to be weaker which should act to temper the overall fire-weather
   threat somewhat. The weaker winds appear likely due to the enhanced
   mid-level flow not reaching eastern New Mexico until after peak
   heating.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: March 25, 2017
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