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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Feb 21, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 21 08:02:03 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170221 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170221 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 13,022 3,200,534 Denver, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...Thornton, CO...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210756

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CO...EXTREME
   SOUTHEAST WY...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE...

   ...Synopsis...
   An extensive midlevel wind-speed maximum is forecast to overlie
   areas from coastal CA to the upper MS Valley, while mean troughing
   is reinforced over the Pacific Northwest and adjacent east Pacific.
   A surface trough will deepen over portions of the northern and
   central High Plains. Two separate regions of fire-weather highlights
   are in effect, as subsequently discussed, while recent precipitation
   between and north of these areas may limit the fire-weather risk.

   ...Portions of southeast WY, northeast CO, western NE...
   Enhanced downslope winds extending off the central Rockies will
   support warming/drying over the adjacent High Plains. Westerly winds
   of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are forecast to combine with RH
   around 12-20 percent in support of elevated to critical fire-weather
   conditions.

   The latest short-range, high-resolution model guidance suggests that
   overlap of critically strong winds (speeds of 20-25 mph) and low RH
   (12-15 percent) will be most likely for the following areas: the
   vicinity of the CO Front Range and surrounding foothills, eastward
   across portions of the northeastern CO High Plains, extreme
   southeast WY, and extreme southern parts of the NE Panhandle. Given
   relatively limited precipitation across these areas, sufficiently
   dry fuels exist for Critical designation.

   For locations surrounding the Critical area, elevated to
   borderline-critical fire-weather conditions will be possible,
   warranting Elevated designation. However, the strongest winds are
   forecast to remain displaced to the north of the lowest RH, limiting
   the critical fire-weather potential.

   ...Portions of southwest KS northeastward to south-central NE...
   A modestly enhanced low-level pressure gradient east of the lee
   trough is forecast to support southwesterly to west-northwesterly
   surface winds of 15-18 mph. With a warm air mass in place and a
   dearth of moisture return, vertical mixing will encourage RH values
   falling to around 12-20 percent. While elevated fire-weather
   conditions are expected, critically strong winds are unlikely.

   ..Cohen.. 02/21/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: February 21, 2017
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