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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Nov 20, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 20 17:01:03 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171120 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20171120 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 23,759 88,752 Sterling, CO...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201700

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

   Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CO...A SMALL PART OF
   SOUTHWEST NE/SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST KS...

   ...Central High Plains...
   A critical area has been added for portions of the central High
   Plains, with critical wind/RH already being observed over portions
   of far southeast WY and the NE Panhandle and these conditions likely
   to spread southeast during the afternoon. 

   ...East-central NM into portions of west TX and south-central CO...
   Critical conditions are still expected to develop over portions of
   east-central NM this afternoon, with elevated/locally critical
   conditions extending eastward into portions of west TX and northward
   into south-central CO. See the previous discussion below for more
   details. 

   ...OK/North TX northeast into Iowa...
   The elevated area has been expanded to include portions of western
   north TX northeast through OK, eastern KS, western MO, IA, and
   eastern NE. A strong low-level jet will allow for strong
   southwesterly winds this afternoon, with sustained winds of 20-30
   mph expected. Morning soundings reveal very limited moisture, with
   PW values generally below 0.25". Heating/mixing this afternoon
   should allow for minimum RH values in the 20-30% range, sufficient
   for elevated fire weather conditions given the strong winds.

   ..Dean.. 11/20/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper-level pattern is forecast to become more amplified today,
   as a ridge builds over the West.  As a result, strong northwesterly
   flow aloft will impinge upon the central/southern Rockies.  At the
   surface, a low pressure system will move eastward across
   south-central Canada with a trough of low pressure extending
   southward across the central/southern High Plains.

   ...East-central NM into portions of west TX and south-central CO...
   Strong downslope flow across the region will aid in the downward
   transport of high momentum air from aloft, resulting in dry and
   breezy conditions at the surface.  The most likely location for
   critical fire weather conditions is expected across east-central New
   Mexico in the immediate lee of the higher terrain, where sustained
   afternoon westerly surface wind speeds of 20-25 mph (with gusts over
   30 mph by late afternoon) will coincide with RH values around 10%. 
   Elsewhere, elevated fire weather conditions are expected as RH
   values fall below 15% with sustained winds of 15-20 mph.

   ...Portions of the central High Plains...
   The winds aloft will be even stronger to the north, where downslope
   flow will contribute to strong and gusty westerly surface winds,
   especially in the immediate lee of the higher terrain in
   southeastern Wyoming.  However, there is substantial uncertainty in
   reaching critical RH values in that region, precluding the issuance
   of a critical area at this time.  Farther east over the plains,
   sustained wind speeds will be weaker (15-20 mph), but critical RH
   values appear more likely, resulting in elevated fire weather
   conditions.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      
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Page last modified: November 20, 2017
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