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    Day 2 FW Outlook >
May 24, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed May 24 08:38:02 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170524 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170524 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 240834

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   Expansive upper trough currently extending from the upper MS valley
   southward to the TX coast is expected to progress eastward into the
   more of the eastern CONUS during the period. At the same time, a
   shortwave trough currently moving through the base of the upper
   trough will move quickly eastward through the lower MS Valley before
   pivoting northeastward into the mid-Atlantic. Farther west, upper
   ridging will drift across the Plains while another shortwave trough
   moves through the northern Rockies and Canadian prairie provinces.
   At the surface, low currently moving into the TN valley will
   continue northeastward will occluding. An associated cold front will
   move across the Southeast, TN Valley, and mid-Atlantic. Ridging is
   anticipated across the Plains with strong lee troughing across the
   High Plains. 

   A tight surface pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer
   mixing and modest westerly flow aloft, will support sustained
   westerly winds around 20-25 mph (locally higher) from northern AZ
   into north-central NM. Slightly weaker winds are anticipated across
   southern AZ and southwest NM. These gusty winds will occur within an
   antecedent dry environment supportive of minimum RH values from the
   low teens to upper single-digits. Resulting meteorological
   conditions are supportive of critical fire weather conditions in
   areas where fuels are critically dry. However, the latest fuel
   guidance indicates continued above-average fuel moisture across much
   of the region. As a result, widespread elevated fire weather
   conditions are anticipated with locally critical conditions likely
   in areas where fuels are sufficiently dry. 

   ...Northern Plains...
   A strong surface pressure gradient associated with a deep surface
   low moving across the Canadian prairie provinces and its attendant
   cold front will be in place across the region. Strong westerly winds
   and quickly drying surface conditions are anticipated in the wake of
   the front. Moist fuels and cooler surface conditions are expected to
   keep the fire weather risk low across north-central MT. However,
   warmer conditions and more favorable fuels are expected farther east
   into eastern MT and elevated to locally critical fire weather
   conditions are likely as a result. 

   Additionally, some isolated, high-based thunderstorms are possible
   along the front or just ahead of the front. The high-based and
   fast-moving nature of these storms will support some threat for
   lightning ignitions and an isolated dry thunderstorm area was
   introduced as a result.

   ..Mosier.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...

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