Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue May 3 15:07:02 UTC 2016 (20160503 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160503 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 031502

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1002 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   VALID 031700Z - 041200Z

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

   ..COHEN.. 05/03/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0328 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL/ERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TODAY. UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE
   WRN CONUS/CANADA SHOULD SHIFT EWD OVER THE ROCKY MTNS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AT
   THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
   DESCRIBED ABOVE MOVES SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENHANCED
   MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS TODAY.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN...
   NLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
   BECOME ONLY SOMEWHAT REDUCED...MOST LIKELY INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
   RANGE...AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO PERHAPS
   LOWER 70S. GIVEN LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RH
   VALUES FALLING LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH STRONG
   WINDS AND DRY FINE FUELS...AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
   THIS REGION. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE RH
   VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RH
   VALUES BELOW THIS THRESHOLD OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS TOO LOW
   TO INCLUDE A CRITICAL DELINEATION AT THIS TIME. ELEVATED
   METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF
   ERN SD AND SRN/WRN MN...BUT SOME RECENT PRECIPITATION FOR THESE
   AREAS CASTS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON FUEL RECEPTIVENESS. ELSEWHERE
   ACROSS THE CONUS...STRONG WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO OVERLAP AREAS OF
   SUFFICIENTLY LOWERED RH VALUES.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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