Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Aug 2 15:05:02 UTC 2015 (20150802 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150802 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 021500

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

   VALID 021700Z - 031200Z

   NO CHANGES NEEDED. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FORECAST
   DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 08/02/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0349 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NWWD INTO
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND WEAKEN
   TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY NWD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. VERY
   HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
   NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PLUME-DOMINANT FIRE
   GROWTH...BUT LIGHT SFC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
   THREAT. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE NWD-MOVING UPPER TROUGH.

   ...PORTIONS OF NRN CA...NWRN NV...SRN/CNTRL ORE...CNTRL/SRN ID...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CA...NV...AND ORE...WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
   PLACE AND ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOCAL
   TERRAIN-DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS. OBSERVED 02/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAK AND
   MFR AND RECENT GPS-BASED ANALYSES INDICATE PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH
   ACROSS NRN CA INTO SRN ORE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN 0.5
   INCHES EXTENDING NORTHEAST. THESE PW VALUES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   MODEST STORM MOTIONS...WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY WETTING RAINFALL...BUT
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CAN
   BECOME VERY HOT AND WELL-MIXED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LTG
   STRIKES OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES WILL POSE AN IGNITION
   THREAT...GIVEN VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. 

   FURTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN ID...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
   TO BE VERY ISOLATED...AS THIS AREA IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM GREATEST
   INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. HOWEVER...ANY TSTM ACTIVITY IN
   THIS REGION IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...GIVEN LOW PW VALUES AND THE
   PRESENCE OF DRY/DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
   THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT...THE ISOLATED DRY-TSTM DELINEATION HAS BEEN
   MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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