Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Nov 28 16:28:02 UTC 2014 (20141128 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20141128 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281626

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

   VALID 281700Z - 291200Z


   ...NERN AND E-CNTRL NM...TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE...
   PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING ELEVATED RISK AREA WAS TO SHIFT
   SLIGHTLY NWD TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
   AND FAR WRN OK. LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE FOCUSES AXIS OF
   STRONGEST WLY WINDS ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OF 15-20 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA ALSO IS
   LOCATED WITHIN A DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION RECENTLY
   OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S TOWARDS THE TX S
   PLAINS.

   ...SIERRA FRONT OF NWRN NV...
   A BELT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL WLYS ACCOMPANYING AN AMPLIFYING PAC NW
   TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN GREAT BASIN TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO
   STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA ACROSS
   NWRN NV. 12 REV SOUNDING SAMPLED 50 KT AROUND 2 KM AGL...AND SFC
   OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING REFLECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS NEAR/E
   OF RNO. DOWNSLOPE-ENHANCED DRYING/WARMING COUPLED WITH THE STRONG
   WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   APPROACH 20 MPH AMIDST RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES
   WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S F...PERHAPS YIELDING LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
   OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT TIMES.

   ..ROGERS.. 11/28/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO
   DEAMPLIFY. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM
   EASTERN CO INTO WEST TX. BREEZY WINDS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
   WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND E-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS...

   DOWNSLOPE W/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
   LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S
   TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
   YEAR. AS THIS OCCURS...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COMBINED WITH BREEZY
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-20
   PERCENT RANGE. SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF 8-15 PERCENT RH VALUES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. W/SW SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
   EXPECTED. WHILE SPOTTY/BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...A
   LACK OF MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS
   GREATER THAN 20 MPH WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL AT THIS
   TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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