Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Jul 27 16:21:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 271619 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. See below for more details. ..Picca.. 07/27/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/ ...Synopsis... The midlevel low/trough that has persisted for several days near northern CA is expected to weaken and become absorbed into broad southwesterly flow ahead of a strong cyclone over the northeast Pacific. At the surface, in response to the ejecting system, low pressure is expected to deepen slightly over portions of Alberta/Saskatchewan and the northern Rockies/High Plains. In the wake of the departing trough, somewhat warmer and drier conditions are expected over portions of California into the Great Basin. ...Northern OR into Central/Eastern WA... Dry and breezy conditions are expected in the lee of the Cascades of WA/OR, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Current guidance suggests the potential for westerly winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values of 15-25%, sufficient for an elevated fire-weather risk. Locally critical conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas where winds are enhanced. ...ID into Western/Central MT and Northwest WY... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected as the aforementioned ejecting system moves across the area. Forecast thermodynamic profiles continue to suggest the potential for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, resulting in some threat for ignitions in areas of dry fuels. The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been maintained from central ID into western/central MT, while portions of southern ID have been removed due to greater moisture availability and recent rainfall in that area. ...Portions of Eastern MT and the Western Dakotas... A modest increase in surface winds is possible across portions of eastern MT into the western Dakotas, in response to developing low pressure over portions of AB/SK. With low-level moisture expected to remain rather limited, strong heating could result in near-critical RH values during the afternoon. These factors could result in elevated fire weather conditions over portions of the region. At this time, the greatest chance for elevated conditions appears to be over portions of western SD into southwest ND. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and potential for cloudiness/convection to limit heating, so no delineation has been made. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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