Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Jul 23 15:47:02 UTC 2016 (20160723 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160723 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231542

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   VALID 231700Z - 241200Z

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
   ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE ONGOING AREAS...WITH
   ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO 20 MPH
   WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15-20 PERCENT TO INCREASE THE
   FIRE-WEATHER THREAT. A CRITICAL AREA IS NOT INTRODUCED THOUGH...AS
   CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE.

   ...SOUTHERN CA...
   DESPITE A WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND
   VERY DRY FUELS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS AS
   LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST...ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED
   LOCATIONS.

   ..PICCA.. 07/23/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY
   MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
   THIS OCCURS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS TROUGH
   AND COLD FRONT THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN THE HOT
   CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
   DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
   MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A
   DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES THAT
   SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM/DRY
   AIRMASS...STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   DEVELOP...THE COMBINATION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST ELEVATED /AND POTENTIALLY LOCALLY
   CRITICAL/ FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WEAKER AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
   STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
   IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES
   IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO MID-TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER DAY.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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