Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri May 22 16:25:02 UTC 2015 (20150522 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150522 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 13,235 80,519 Douglas, AZ...Deming, NM...Silver City, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 221620

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 221700Z - 231200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...

   NO CHANGE IS WARRANTED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

   ..SMITH.. 05/22/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/SRN CA THIS MORNING WILL
   CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
   TODAY. FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL
   CONUS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
   SFC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN/DESERT
   SOUTHWEST THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD
   REDEVELOP SLIGHTLY EWD BY THIS EVENING WHILE DEEPENING. E OF THE
   ROCKIES...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN
   CONUS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN/W-CNTRL NM...
   AS BOTH THE UPPER AND SFC LOW APPROACH ERN AZ AND WRN NM TODAY...THE
   SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE. IN
   ADDITION...A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
   UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SRN AZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SFC
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AZ
   AND WRN NM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S AMIDST A
   DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO THE 7-15 PERCENT
   RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY FINE FUELS...THIS
   WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
   PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
   RECEPTIVE FUELS OWING TO ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER RH VALUES BEING THE MAIN FACTORS PRECLUDING A LARGER CRITICAL
   AREA AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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