Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Sep 3 17:02:03 UTC 2015 (20150903 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150903 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 031657

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

   VALID 031700Z - 041200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL/SRN NV...

   THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS ON
   TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL/SRN NEVADA.  ONLY MINOR
   ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO CRITICAL AND ELEVATED DELINEATIONS. 
   SEE FORECAST RATIONALE IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

   ..JIRAK.. 09/03/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0340 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WRN CONUS...WHILE
   UPPER RIDGING STAYS CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT
   BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM NRN CA NEWD INTO SRN ID AND MT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
   APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA
   OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/WRN CO REGION.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
   AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...SLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH AS ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ARE PROMOTED TO THE
   SFC VIA DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RH VALUES ARE LIKEWISE
   EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL/SRN NV...GENERALLY INTO THE 8-15 PERCENT
   RANGE. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BEEN
   EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NWD AND WWD TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE. SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF UT...SERN ID...AND WRN/CNTRL WY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY...WITH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND
   RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT COMMON. THE MARGINAL FORECAST
   COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERED RH VALUES ACROSS THE ELEVATED
   AREA CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A LARGER CRITICAL DESIGNATION.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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