Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu May 25 06:40:04 UTC 2017 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 250635 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Upper trough currently moving across the eastern CONUS will become negatively-titled as a shortwave trough moves through its base and off the mid-Atlantic coast. Overall maturing of this upper cyclone will result in a vertically stacked low centered over New England by 12Z Friday. Farther west, upper ridging will move from the Plains into the MS Valley and an upper low will move eastward across the Canadian Prairie provinces. Surface low associated with the upper low will take a similar path with an attendant cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Westerly flow aloft from the Great Basin into the southern High Plains will foster a deepening lee trough across the central and southern High Plains, with cyclogenesis expected across eastern CO this afternoon. ...Southwest... Tightened surface pressure gradient coupled with enhanced flow aloft and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected to support sustained westerly winds from 25 to 35 mph across much of the Southwest this afternoon. Gusts over 45 mph are possible. Antecedent dry airmass is also in place across the region. Aforementioned deep boundary-layer mixing (up to 500 mb in some locations) amidst this dry airmass will result in afternoon RH values in the single-digits across the majority of the region (despite near-average high temperatures). The warmest conditions are expected across portions of the Permian Basin and TX South Plains where highs over 100 are likely. These windy and dry conditions are supportive of a critical fire weather threat in areas where fuels are dry. ..Mosier.. 05/25/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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