Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Jul 27 16:21:03 UTC 2017 (20170727 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170727 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271619

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. See below for more
   details.

   ..Picca.. 07/27/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   The midlevel low/trough that has persisted for several days near
   northern CA is expected to weaken and become absorbed into broad
   southwesterly flow ahead of a strong cyclone over the northeast
   Pacific. At the surface, in response to the ejecting system, low
   pressure is expected to deepen slightly over portions of
   Alberta/Saskatchewan and the northern Rockies/High Plains. In the
   wake of the departing trough, somewhat warmer and drier conditions
   are expected over portions of California into the Great Basin. 

   ...Northern OR into Central/Eastern WA...
   Dry and breezy conditions are expected in the lee of the Cascades of
   WA/OR, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Current guidance
   suggests the potential for westerly winds of 15-20 mph and minimum
   RH values of 15-25%, sufficient for an elevated fire-weather risk.
   Locally critical conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas
   where winds are enhanced. 

   ...ID into Western/Central MT and Northwest WY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are again expected as the aforementioned
   ejecting system moves across the area. Forecast thermodynamic
   profiles continue to suggest the potential for a mix of wet and dry
   thunderstorm activity, resulting in some threat for ignitions in
   areas of dry fuels. The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been
   maintained from central ID into western/central MT, while portions
   of southern ID have been removed due to greater moisture
   availability and recent rainfall in that area.

   ...Portions of Eastern MT and the Western Dakotas...
   A modest increase in surface winds is possible across portions of
   eastern MT into the western Dakotas, in response to developing low
   pressure over portions of AB/SK. With low-level moisture expected to
   remain rather limited, strong heating could result in near-critical
   RH values during the afternoon. These factors could result in
   elevated fire weather conditions over portions of the region. At
   this time, the greatest chance for elevated conditions appears to be
   over portions of western SD into southwest ND. However, quite a bit
   of uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and
   potential for cloudiness/convection to limit heating, so no
   delineation has been made.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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