Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon May 30 07:10:03 UTC 2016 (20160530 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160530 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300705

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS AZ...WITH A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF SRN NM. A
   DRYLINE WILL BECOME POSITIONED FROM THE TX BIG BEND NWD ACROSS THE
   SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER N...A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...WHILE
   A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST.

   ...SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS SWRN
   NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER AZ. STRONG DIURNAL
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS
   INITIATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. 20-30 KT OF MIDLEVEL
   FLOW...COUPLED WITH A DRY/WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...WILL RESULT
   IN LOW PRECIPITATION TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION AS RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSITIONED E OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND
   FAR W TX.

   LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING RH
   VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL WIND/RH
   VALUES AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...NO ELEVATED RISK AREA
   WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/30/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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