Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Aug 30 08:59:03 UTC 2016 (20160830 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20160830 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300853

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONE APPROACHING THE COAST OF NRN CA FROM THE E PACIFIC. THIS
   CYCLONE...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ARE
   FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN CA/WRN ORE NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. INCREASED
   FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES FROM PORTIONS
   OF ORE TO NRN NV AND VICINITY...AS A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO TRACKS NEWD.

   ...PORTIONS OF ORE...SWRN ID...NRN NV...NERN CA...
   ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
   TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ORE...SWRN ID...NRN NV...AND NERN
   CA. IN THESE AREAS...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING INTO ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT
   ATTENDANT TO THE CYCLONE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
   SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
   DEEP MIXING AMIDST A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS COUPLED WITH
   DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING IN MANY AREAS IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT MINIMUM RH AROUND 5-15 PERCENT. THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE LOWEST RH AT PEAK
   HEATING. AS SUCH...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
   PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY/MARGINAL
   BASIS.

   ALSO...A COMPACT CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTURE PRECEDING THE
   TROUGH IS FORECAST TO YIELD NON-ZERO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN
   PORTIONS OF ORE. BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE QUITE
   LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS SFC
   HEATING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. REGARDLESS...THE LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/ASCENT...AND
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND
   A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...COULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TO NERN
   ORE AND VICINITY. FURTHERMORE...AMPLE FLOW THROUGH THE
   CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS BY ENCOURAGING FAST STORM MOTIONS. WHILE THE LIMITED
   DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL...THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND RELATED PRECEDING
   STRONG ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   EXIST. AS SUCH...THE ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN
   MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.

   ...SRN CA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...SRN KERN...AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
   FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT MODESTLY TIGHTENS YIELDING LOCALIZED SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT A LARGER-SCALE/MORE ROBUST TIGHTENING OF THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PRESENTLY
   FORECAST TO BE TOO SPOTTY FOR FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

   ..COHEN.. 08/30/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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