Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Mar 26 15:39:03 UTC 2017 (20170326 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170326 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 112,688 2,010,945 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 261534

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1034 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z


   Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.  Widespread
   critical conditions remain likely in much of the region today, with
   the eastern extent of the fire weather threat modulated by eastward
   progress of a dryline this afternoon.  This dryline should reach the
   US 281 corridor by mid/late afternoon.

   See the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Cook.. 03/26/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0310 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

   A fast moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the
   southern Plains during the forecast period. As this occurs, a belt
   of enhanced westerly mid-level flow accompanying the shortwave
   trough will exit the southern Rocky Mountains and overspread the
   southern Plains. At the surface, a cyclone located in the vicinity
   of northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado will exhibit modest
   strengthening as it moves east-southeast into central Oklahoma
   before it lifts northeast.

   ...Far southeast Arizona and south New Mexico...
   Heights will be rising across the southern Rocky Mountains as the
   aforementioned shortwave trough ejects into the Plains. This will
   allow for warming temperatures and dry conditions across far
   southeast Arizona and much of central and southern New Mexico. A
   north-to-south gradient in relative humidity will exist across this
   area, with the lowest relative-humidity falling below 15% across
   southern New Mexico. Enough enhanced mid-level flow may linger
   across this region to allow for any vertical mixing to result in 
   surface winds around 20 mph during the afternoon. This will result
   in critical fire-weather conditions.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Downslope flow will result in warm, dry conditions across eastern
   New Mexico eastward into west Texas. Here, afternoon relative
   humidity should fall into the 10-15% range. Additionally, surface
   winds should exceed 20 mph as some of the stronger flow aloft
   associated with the shortwave trough mixes down. This will result in
   critical fire-weather conditions for much of the afternoon. Some
   uncertainty remains as to the eastern extent of critical conditions,
   primarily owing to concerns with how far east the dryline mixes.

   ...Central New Mexico...
   A belt of enhanced west-northwest surface flow will develop during
   the afternoon. However, relative humidity should remain in the
   20-40% range. This will result in elevated fire-weather conditions,
   although brief/localized critical conditions may occur.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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