Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Sep 20 07:08:03 UTC 2017 (20170920 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170920 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 200706

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   The large-scale upper trough over the West is expected to amplify
   today, as an embedded shortwave trough drops southeastward from the
   Pacific Northwest into portions of CA/NV. Relatively dry and windy
   conditions will persist over portions of the Southwest and also
   across parts of the central High Plains, resulting in an elevated
   fire weather threat. 

   ...Northeast AZ/Northwest NM into the Four Corners Region...
   Sufficient residual low-midlevel flow and dry conditions will result
   in the development of elevated to locally critical wind/RH
   conditions over portions of AZ/NM into southern UT/southwest CO.
   Fuels are rather marginal across this region, though some curing of
   finer fuels will have occurred on Tuesday. The elevated area has
   been maintained over portions of northeast AZ/northwest NM into the
   Four Corners region, where the most substantial wind/RH conditions
   appear likely to develop. At this time, the best chance for critical
   wind/RH appears to be over northeast AZ/southeast UT, where fuels
   are quite marginal, displaced to the west of the drier fuels over
   northwest NM.

   ...Central/Northern High Plains...
   Relatively dry and breezy conditions are expected over portions of
   the central and northern High Plains this afternoon. Sustained winds
   of 15-25 mph combined with minimum RH values of 10-20% will result
   in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. At this
   time, confidence in a sufficient duration of critical wind/RH at any
   one location is too low for an upgrade.

   ..Dean.. 09/20/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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