Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun Nov 23 16:36:03 UTC 2014 (20141123 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20141123 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231635

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1035 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 231700Z - 241200Z

   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO REASONING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. REMOVED
   ELEVATED AREA FROM SANTA BARBARA CO...AS PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS
   OVERLAPPING LOWEST RH VALUES APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED. LOCALIZED AREAS
   OF 15-20 PERCENT RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THERE TODAY...DUE TO NE
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
   RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
   CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. ACROSS PORTIONS OF VENTURA CO AND
   POINTS SE...PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING IS STILL VALID.

   ...PORTIONS OF TX TRANS-PECOS REGION / SE NM...
   AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET MAXIMA TRANSLATE
   E/SE ACROSS NM INTO W TX TODAY...STRENGTHENING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
   ADDITIONALLY...A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH MORNING
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SEVERAL SITES WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20-25
   PERCENT RANGE AS OF 16Z. WITH FURTHER DRYING DUE TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE 15-20
   PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED/SPOTTY VALUES LESS
   THAN 15 PERCENT. WHILE WETTING RAINS HAVE OCCURRED FARTHER TO THE
   EAST ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...SE NM AND MUCH OF THE TRANS-PECOS
   HAVE RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE LAST 7-14
   DAYS...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OF FINE FUELS. CONSIDERING
   ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...AN ELEVATED DELINEATION HAS BEEN
   INTRODUCED.

   ..PICCA.. 11/23/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0249 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPACT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD THROUGH THE LWR
   MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS LEAD
   SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO SRN
   PLAINS WILL HELP ESTABLISH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
   INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD FROM THE
   CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LWR MS VALLEY. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT
   RECENT RAINFALL AND GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ANY FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT LOW. BY 12Z...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
   FROM LWR MI SWD INTO SE LA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO DEEP S TX. 

   ...SRN CA...
   A QUICK TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED
   DURING THE LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES TPH-LAX GRADIENT AROUND 10 MB BY 18Z.
   THIS OFFSHORE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH AT LEAST MODERATE COLD
   ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NLY/NELY WINDS AROUND
   25-30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY
   REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. 

   FUELS ARE GENERALLY MOIST AS A RESULT OF RECENT RAINFALL. THE BULK
   OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH GRADUAL
   TRANSITION TO NO MEASURED RAINFALL ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. AS A
   RESULT...TODAYS OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAINLY ACT TO PRECONDITION FUELS
   FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
   WHERE ISOLATED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. OFFSHORE WINDS
   WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE LAYER INTRUSION BUT DECENT OVERNIGHT RH
   RECOVERY IS STILL EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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