Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Mar 30 16:15:03 UTC 2015 (20150330 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20150330 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 90,860 3,111,294 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301614

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

   VALID 301700Z - 311200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD...ERN
   NEB...SWRN MN...AND WRN/CNTRL IA...

   CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID MO
   VALLEY. THEREFORE...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL/ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...AND WRN/CNTRL IA FOR THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM A WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE AREA OVER N-CNTRL ND ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND
   CONTINUING SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY SWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
   AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED FROM E-CNTRL NM NEWD INTO MUCH OF
   KS. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS SERN NEB. NWLY
   WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL NEB AND
   THE DAKOTAS OWING TO AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA.
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND DRYING IN BOTH OF THESE WIND REGIMES WILL
   PROMOTE RH VALUES TO FALL TO 15-25 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN THREE HOURS
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS.

   AN EXPECTED COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID MO
   VALLEY. THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED WWD TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND A LARGER PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
   ERN NM. THIS REGION WILL GENERALLY HAVE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER TO
   THE NE...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS OF MAINLY 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL PORTION OF SERN WY
   TO THE E OF THE LARAMIE MTNS AS ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY PROMOTE
   A REDUCTION IN RH VALUES TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/30/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0323 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
   THROUGH THE NORTHEAST STATES...MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z/TUE.
   ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
   FIRST...MOVING SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
   UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGING -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NRN CA
   THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA -- WILL MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
   AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
   PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS. 

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY...
   ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MO
   VALLEY AS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
   WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MIN RH VALUES WILL
   RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR 25
   PERCENT IN IA. THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH...RESULTING IN WEAK WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT
   TEMPERED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SWLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
   AREAS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
   SOME DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES/LOWEST RH VALUES
   -- AROUND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE -- AND THE STRONGEST
   WINDS -- NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS IA -- WITHIN THIS REGION. ELEVATED TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY BUT THE
   DISSOCIATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
   THE LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A THREAT
   AREA WITH THIS FORECAST. 

   IN CONTRAST TO AREAS FARTHER S...SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
   LOCATED E OF THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NWLY
   WINDS. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
   DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
   AT LEAST MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS AMIDST WARM
   TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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