Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu May 25 06:40:04 UTC 2017 (20170525 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20170525 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 187,013 4,467,372 El Paso, TX...Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...Las Cruces, NM...Casas Adobes, AZ...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 250635

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


   Upper trough currently moving across the eastern CONUS will become
   negatively-titled as a shortwave trough moves through its base and
   off the mid-Atlantic coast. Overall maturing of this upper cyclone
   will result in a vertically stacked low centered over New England by
   12Z Friday. Farther west, upper ridging will move from the Plains
   into the MS Valley and an upper low will move eastward across the
   Canadian Prairie provinces. Surface low associated with the upper
   low will take a similar path with an attendant cold front moving
   across the northern and central Plains. Westerly flow aloft from the
   Great Basin into the southern High Plains will foster a deepening
   lee trough across the central and southern High Plains, with
   cyclogenesis expected across eastern CO this afternoon. 

   Tightened surface pressure gradient coupled with enhanced flow aloft
   and deep boundary-layer mixing is expected to support sustained
   westerly winds from 25 to 35 mph across much of the Southwest this
   afternoon. Gusts over 45 mph are possible. Antecedent dry airmass is
   also in place across the region. Aforementioned deep boundary-layer
   mixing (up to 500 mb in some locations) amidst this dry airmass will
   result in afternoon RH values in the single-digits across the
   majority of the region (despite near-average high temperatures). The
   warmest conditions are expected across portions of the Permian Basin
   and TX South Plains where highs over 100 are likely. These windy and
   dry conditions are supportive of a critical fire weather threat in
   areas where fuels are dry.

   ..Mosier.. 05/25/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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