Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Feb 24 16:37:02 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 241632 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Portions of the southern Plains and southern/central New Mexico... A warm airmass remains in place across southern portions of much of the region, evidenced by the warm low-level temperatures (below 700 mb) sampled by regional 12Z soundings. In fact, the 850 mb temperatures of 18, 22, and 23 deg C at DRT, BRO, and CRP, respectively, are near the maximum climatological values (based on SPC sounding climatology). Expectation is for temperatures across south TX to reach the mid to upper 80s, despite passage of the surface cold front this afternoon. Minimum RH values from the mid teens to upper single-digits are expected. Additionally, the surface pressure gradient coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing and moderate flow aloft to support breezy northerly winds. Sustained values around 20 mph are likely and the resulting combination of dry and windy conditions merits expansion of the critical area southward along the Rio Grande into deep south TX. Elsewhere across the region, a dry post-frontal airmass will support very dry surface conditions amidst a deeply mixed boundary-layer. Afternoon RH values will drop into the low teens and upper single-digits across the southern High Plains amidst gusty westerly winds from 20 to 30 mph. As such, critical fire weather conditions are still anticipated across much of the region with only minor changes need to the previous outlook area. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across the remainder of the region (central/north central/northwest TX and the TX Hill Country) with sustained wind speeds from 15 to 20 mph occurring amidst RH values ranging from the teens to upper 20s. Primary factor precluding critical conditions across the TX Hill Country and northwest TX is sustained wind speeds below 20 mph while increased low-level moisture and higher minimum RH values will act as the primary mitigating factor across central/north-central TX. ..Mosier.. 02/24/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will deepen as it moves from the Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes through tonight. In tandem with this low, another shortwave trough dropping southward along the Pacific Northwest coast will help maintain broad cyclonic flow across much of the Southwest and southern Plains. The surface pattern will feature high pressure building southward across much of the Plains states, as a cold front pushes southeast towards the Gulf Coast. ...Portions of the southern Plains and southern/central New Mexico... Despite the passage of the aforementioned cold front, diurnal heating and downslope warming should still increase temperatures sufficiently for RH values to fall into the single digits and teens across much of New Mexico and southern/western Texas. Continued enhancement of west/southwesterly flow aloft will maintain gusty surface conditions as well, bolstering the fire-weather threat. Across parts of New Mexico and west Texas, sustained west winds around 20-30 mph and RH values below 10-15 percent will create critical fire-weather concerns. The ongoing critical area was contracted slightly across parts of west Texas (primarily the eastern portion of the LUB CWA), as weaker winds are expected near a trough axis oriented from northeast New Mexico southeastward to central Texas. Farther south, brief critical concerns may be realized across parts of the Texas Brush Country, as sustained northwesterly winds increase to around 15-20 mph amidst RH values below 15 percent. However, confidence in a sufficient duration of critical conditions remains too low for an upgrade at this time. Nonetheless, rapid fire-spread potential will exist here as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home