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Apr 21, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 21 09:36:02 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150421 0700Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150421 0700Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210935

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY DURING THE
   D2/WED PERIOD...AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
   THE CONUS...AND BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED OVER MUCH OF CA.
   BETWEEN THE TWO...RIDGING WILL EXIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS N/NWWD
   INTO ALBERTA. THE RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE RIDGING
   EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES S/SEWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
   AND DOWN TO FL. FARTHER WEST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...SRN/CNTRL NM...AND FAR WRN TX...
   WITH THE SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROUGH...LIKELY OVER SRN CA AT
   THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND ITS
   PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON THE SWRN CONUS. A DEEP LAYER
   OF DRY W/SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT
   OVER THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 0.25 OR LESS. IN
   TURN...DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE MIN RH VALUES BELOW 10-15
   PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THEY
   WILL BE RECEPTIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BASIS.
   HOWEVER...A CONSIDERABLE FACTOR FOR UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
   FORECAST WIND STRENGTH...WHICH WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE EWD
   MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT JET MAXIMA. A FASTER
   EWD PROGRESSION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SOME AREA OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS...RESULTING FROM MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS
   ALOFT. AT PRESENT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
   WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 MPH...CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE-WX
   THREAT /AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS/. HOWEVER...A CRITICAL
   DELINEATION /ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS AND
   SERN NM/ MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER FLOW INCREASES.
   FURTHERMORE...SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY INVOLVE A GREATER EWD
   DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...AND SUBSEQUENT EWD EXPANSION OF THE
   ELEVATED DELINEATION.

   ..PICCA.. 04/21/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: April 21, 2015
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