Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Mar 28, 2015 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 28 17:28:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150328 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150328 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281726

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED AREA. LATEST
   GFS/ECMWF AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH COMBINED WITH RH VALUES OF
   20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. SEE THE
   PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
   THREAT.

   ..DEAN.. 03/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0343 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MO
   RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER OVER SRN MANITOBA -- WILL PROGRESS
   SEWD...ULTIMATELY EVOLVING INTO BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
   MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD/SEWD THE
   PLAINS...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...AND OH VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
   MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. 

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A LARGE AREA
   OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. INCONSISTENCIES WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
   REGARDING JUST HOW DRY THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE INTRODUCES
   MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED WITH A DAY 2
   FORECAST. THE GREATEST DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE EXIST ACROSS THE
   MID MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND
   GFS ARE AT OR ABOVE 10 DEGREES. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
   DEWPOINT...CONSENSUS IS VERY GOOD THAT WINDS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
   EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BE QUITE STRONG /SUSTAINED OVER 30
   MPH POSSIBLE/. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE MID MO VALLEY
   IN A ELEVATED DELINEATION DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG FARTHER W
   /ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/ BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
   BE WARMER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT.
   REFINEMENTS TO THE ELEVATED AREA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
   FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY DECREASES.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

Related Fire Weather Web Links
Top/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 28, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities