Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Mar 23 19:47:03 UTC 2017 (20170323 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170323 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 126,393 3,463,741 El Paso, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231942

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
   MEXICO...WEST AND NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA...

   Ongoing forecast is generally on track, with minor spatial changes
   made to the elevated delineation in portions of New Mexico and the
   Texas Panhandle.  Elevated (and perhaps locally critical) fire
   weather conditions appear likely in more of western/central New
   Mexico based on recent model guidance...and although RH values
   should not fall to critical thresholds in the Texas Panhandle, very
   strong surface winds west of a strong surface low could pose a risk
   for rapid fire spread amidst dry fuels.

   Elsewhere, a complex surface pattern will exist in portions of
   Oklahoma, with varied degrees of boundary layer warming/drying
   indicated along the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma and north/central
   Texas.  Minimal changes were made to the eastern extent of the
   critical fire weather delineation for this forecast, although the
   eastward/northward extent of the attendant fire weather threat will
   be modulated by how far east boundary layer mixing/drying can occur
   during the afternoon.  Further refinements of these areas will
   likely be needed in later outlooks.

   ..Cook.. 03/23/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong deep-layer cyclone over the central High Plains on Friday
   morning is expected to weaken somewhat as it moves slowly eastward
   through the period. A dryline associated with the cyclone will move
   into portions of central OK/north-central TX during the afternoon,
   as a trailing cold front sweeps through portions of New Mexico and
   West Texas. Critical conditions are possible in the wake of the
   dryline and cold front. 

   ...New Mexico/West Texas into the central/southern Plains...
   While some cooling is expected on Friday, critical conditions are
   expected to develop within the dry and windy post-frontal regime
   from southeast New Mexico into portions of West Texas. Sustained
   westerly winds of 20-25 MPH are expected in this area, while RH
   values will fall into the 10-20% range.

   Further northeast into portions of north Texas, Oklahoma, and
   southern Kansas, a corridor of elevated to potentially critical
   conditions is expected Friday afternoon immediately behind the
   dryline and ahead of the cold front. The best chance of critical
   conditions in this regime appears to be from western north TX into
   southwest/central OK, where southwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will
   combine with minimum RH values of 10-20%. Considerable uncertainty
   remains regarding the northward and eastward extent of the critical
   threat, but at least elevated conditions are possible into portions
   of eastern OK and south-central KS.

   While some antecedent rainfall is possible over portions of the
   elevated and critical areas, at this time the probability of wetting
   rainfall appears rather low.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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