Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue May 23 07:05:04 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 230700 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Upper trough covering much of the central and eastern CONUS at the beginning of the period is expected to shift eastward into more of the eastern CONUS while the embedded upper low moves across the middle MS Valley into the TN Valley. Upper ridging is expected across the Plans in the wake of the upper trough with another shortwave trough following behind the upper ridge across the northern Rockies and Canadian prairie provinces. At the surface, a large area of low pressure will drift across the eastern CONUS while lee troughing deepens across the High Plains. Cyclogenesis is anticipated within this lee troughing across eastern WY. ...Southwest... A more progressive upper pattern will foster a modest increase in westerly flow aloft over the region. A tightening of the surface pressure gradient is also expected as lower pressures from the High Plains westward are paired with higher pressures across the Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixed within this environment will result in gusty winds across a large portion of the Southwest states. In addition to increased wind speeds, a very dry antecedent airmass will support afternoon RH values in the low teens and upper single-digits. The combination of low RH and gusty winds will likely result in meteorological conditions supportive of a critical fire weather threat. However, fuel guidance continues to show ERC values around the 60-75th percentile and above-average 100-hr and 1000-hr fuel moisture, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a large part of the Southwest. Some locally critical conditions are possible in areas where fuels are sufficiently dry. ..Mosier.. 05/23/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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