Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Oct 18 06:47:02 UTC 2017 (20171018 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20171018 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180646

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad cyclonic flow is expected to return across the western United
   States Day 2/Thursday, as a large-scale trough amplifies across the
   Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure over central Alberta
   is forecast to shift slowly eastward, reaching western Saskatchewan
   by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front
   should move from the Pacific Northwest out into the northern
   Rockies. 

   ...Central/Eastern Montana...
   This area will reside beneath enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow
   associated with the aforementioned trough. By afternoon, efficient
   boundary-layer mixing is expected to foster sustained southwesterly
   surface winds of 15-20 mph in an area of reduced RH values of around
   20-25%. These meteorological conditions will occur in an area of
   receptive fuels (especially fine fuels) -- partly owing to the lack
   of recent precipitation and ongoing drought conditions -- and will
   promote Elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours
   during the afternoon.

   ...Central/Northeast Wyoming...
   Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across portions
   of WY, where RH values near 15-20% are forecast to occur in
   conjunction with receptive fuels and sustained southwesterly surface
   winds of around 15-25 mph. While locally critical conditions may
   develop across portions of the area, large model spread regarding
   the degree of warming/drying in the low levels precludes upgrading
   to Critical at this time. If trends in guidance suggest greater
   warming/drying, then an upgrade would be needed in future updates.

   ..Elliott.. 10/18/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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