Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Oct 18 06:47:02 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 180646 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow is expected to return across the western United States Day 2/Thursday, as a large-scale trough amplifies across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, low pressure over central Alberta is forecast to shift slowly eastward, reaching western Saskatchewan by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front should move from the Pacific Northwest out into the northern Rockies. ...Central/Eastern Montana... This area will reside beneath enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the aforementioned trough. By afternoon, efficient boundary-layer mixing is expected to foster sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph in an area of reduced RH values of around 20-25%. These meteorological conditions will occur in an area of receptive fuels (especially fine fuels) -- partly owing to the lack of recent precipitation and ongoing drought conditions -- and will promote Elevated fire weather conditions for at least a few hours during the afternoon. ...Central/Northeast Wyoming... Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across portions of WY, where RH values near 15-20% are forecast to occur in conjunction with receptive fuels and sustained southwesterly surface winds of around 15-25 mph. While locally critical conditions may develop across portions of the area, large model spread regarding the degree of warming/drying in the low levels precludes upgrading to Critical at this time. If trends in guidance suggest greater warming/drying, then an upgrade would be needed in future updates. ..Elliott.. 10/18/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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