Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Fri Feb 24 17:03:03 UTC 2017 (20170224 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170224 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 7,709 13,352 Tucumcari, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241658

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1058 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

   ...Portions of the southern High Plains...
   Scenario outlined in the previous discussion (below) remains valid
   with a dry airmass promoting minimum RH values in the teens across
   much of the region and no changes were needed to the ongoing
   critical area. However, some changes were made to the elevated area
   based on recent guidance. Northern portion of elevated area was
   trimmed out of southwest KS where temperatures are now expected to
   remain below 50 degrees. Southern area was expanded to include more
   of southeast NM and far west TX where southwesterly winds near 15
   mph are anticipated amidst RH values in the low teens to single
   digits.

   ..Mosier.. 02/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   With a shearing vorticity maximum advancing eastward across the
   lower Great Lakes towards New England, a corridor of strong westerly
   mid-level flow will organize from southern/central California
   eastward to the southeast US. The surface response will feature a
   deep cyclone lifting northeast into western Quebec, with a trailing
   cold front extending southward to the Gulf of Mexico. In its wake,
   high pressure will continue to build over the Plains states.

   ...Portions of the southern high Plains...
   As the aforementioned high shifts east across the southern/central
   Plains, westerly mid-level flow over the Rockies will yield lee
   troughing over the high Plains during the day. In response, surface
   winds will veer to the southwest and increase to around 20-25 mph,
   with higher gusts, over portions of eastern New Mexico. Despite
   relatively cool temperatures in the 50s, a dry air mass will
   encourage minimum RH values around 10-15 percent, likely promoting a
   critical fire-weather threat. Surrounding this critical area,
   elevated/locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected from
   southeastern New Mexico northeastward to southwestern Kansas. Across
   these areas, southwesterly winds around 15-20 mph and RH values
   below 20 percent will combine with dry fuels to boost fire-weather
   concerns.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home