Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Feb 13 17:10:03 UTC 2016 (20160213 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160213 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 131706

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ARE NECESSARY. SEE BELOW FOR MORE
   DETAILS.

   ..PICCA.. 02/13/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A MID-LEVEL WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM EXTENDS SEWD FROM PARTS OF THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. THIS WILL
   OCCUR AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE E PACIFIC CONTINUES
   ADVANCING TOWARD THE WRN CONUS. SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
   WILL ENCOURAGE A STRENGTHENING SFC ANTICYCLONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN.

   ...SRN CA COASTAL RANGES/ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND VICINITY...
   THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA WILL GRADUALLY
   TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...TO THE SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   STRENGTHENING SFC ANTICYCLONE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
   NELY TO ENELY SFC WINDS. A MORE PROMINENT INCREASE IN THESE WINDS IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT.

   ON SUNDAY...NELY TO ENELY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
   COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE
   TEENS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS -- I.E. IN THE
   70S AND 80S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
   GIVEN AREAS OF DRY FUELS. BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.

   THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...NELY TO ENELY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN MANY
   AREAS...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS --
   STRONGEST THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL TEND TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT RH
   RECOVERY -- ALBEIT MODEST AS RH VALUES HOLD IN THE 20S AND 30S IN
   SOME AREAS -- TO LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   OVERALL...PROSPECTS FOR STRONG WINDS TO OVERLAP WITH LOW RH ON ANY
   MORE THAN A BRIEF BASIS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED...PRECLUDING CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL
   FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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