Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed Jul 23 08:22:04 UTC 2014 (20140723 0700Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140723 0700Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 50,316 132,167 Rock Springs, WY...Green River, WY...Havre, MT...Riverton, WY...Lander, WY...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230820

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR N-CNTRL MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL WY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ENEWD FROM NE WA/SE BC ACROSS SRN ALBERTA
   AND INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE PERIOD. THIS CONTINUED EWD
   PROGRESS WILL DAMPEN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
   CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN
   CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   SHIFT SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY WHILE A
   LEE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE LEE TROUGH
   /WRN SD/. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
   PUSH ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT. 

   ...CNTRL/ERN MT...MOST OF WY...S-CNTRL/SE ID...NE/CNTRL/SW
   UT...E-CNTRL/SRN NV...
   A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
   EXPECTED WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
   LOW OVERLAPS WITH THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE NRN EXTENT
   OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS E-CNTRL/SRN NV NEWD INTO SRN WY WHERE MIN RH VALUES FROM THE
   UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS THROUGHOUT
   MOST OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   FROM 20 TO 25 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS CNTRL WY WITH A RESULTANT
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAINS.

   FARTHER N /CNTRL AND ERN MT/...FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY DIFFERENCE
   IN SUGGESTED FRONTAL TIMING AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. NAM FORECAST IS
   FASTER AND TAKES THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN MT BY 21Z...LIMITING
   POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE ABSAROKA RANGE. GFS IS
   SLOWER WITH A FORECAST DEWPOINT 25 DEG F LOWER THAN THE NAM AT BIL.
   AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A CRITICAL DELINEATE WITH
   THIS FORECAST. IN CONTRAST... CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS IS HIGH ACROSS N-CNTRL MT WITH A THREAT AREA DELINEATED
   ACCORDINGLY.

   ..MOSIER.. 07/23/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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