Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Mar 31 09:25:02 UTC 2015 (20150331 0700Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20150331 0700Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 166,526 1,284,628 Amarillo, TX...Billings, MT...Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Clovis, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310923

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0423 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL/SE MT...SW/S-CNTRL
   ND...NW/N-CNTRL SD...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL NM...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...FAR SW KS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NE AZ...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM...FEATURING A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN...
   IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD OVER THE NRN
   2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. THE ERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   OFF THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH UPSTREAM
   RIDGING MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE WRN SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. ENHANCED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL WY NEWD INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
   AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TX AND THE LWR MS VALLEY. AT THE
   SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
   WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER.
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DEEPENS ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. 

   ...NRN PLAINS...
   A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE IN
   THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
   COOLER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. AIRMASS ACROSS THE
   REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AND...IN CONCERT WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND
   DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 25
   PERCENT. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
   FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS WELL. THESE FEATURES IN TANDEM WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PUSH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 25 MPH
   FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH
   ANTICIPATED OVER MT. WIND GUSTS WILL TOP 40 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
   THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
   AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY
   ACROSS S-CNTRL/SE MT...SW/S-CNTRL ND...AND NW/N-CNTRL SD. THE FACTOR
   PRECLUDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS RH
   VALUES LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT WHILE WEAKER WINDS
   PRECLUDED THE INCLUSION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH. 

   ...SOUTHWEST...SRN PLAINS...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER THE CNTRL CO/KS BORDER WILL HELP INCREASE THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
   FOR STRONG WINDS PROVIDED BY INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
   STRONGEST WINDS -- SUSTAINED OVER 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH --
   ARE EXPECTED OVER NE AZ WHERE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
   EXIST. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.  A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL
   SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES FROM THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S AS TEMPERATURES
   CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. A FEW AREAS IN THE TX/OK
   PANHANDLES MAY EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS. 

   COMBINATION OF THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND MODERATELY DRY
   FUELS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE
   AZ AND FROM E-CNTRL NM NEWD INTO FAR SW KS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN
   WINDS OVER 20 MPH AND RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT IS HIGHEST. THE
   FACTOR PRECLUDING CRITICAL ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND NM WAS ANTICIPATED
   MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHILE WINDS BELOW 20 MPH PRECLUDED
   THE INCLUSION OF THE TRANS-PECOS OR CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   ..MOSIER.. 03/31/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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