Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Mar 23 19:47:03 UTC 2017 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 231942 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST AND NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Ongoing forecast is generally on track, with minor spatial changes made to the elevated delineation in portions of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Elevated (and perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions appear likely in more of western/central New Mexico based on recent model guidance...and although RH values should not fall to critical thresholds in the Texas Panhandle, very strong surface winds west of a strong surface low could pose a risk for rapid fire spread amidst dry fuels. Elsewhere, a complex surface pattern will exist in portions of Oklahoma, with varied degrees of boundary layer warming/drying indicated along the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma and north/central Texas. Minimal changes were made to the eastern extent of the critical fire weather delineation for this forecast, although the eastward/northward extent of the attendant fire weather threat will be modulated by how far east boundary layer mixing/drying can occur during the afternoon. Further refinements of these areas will likely be needed in later outlooks. ..Cook.. 03/23/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/ ...Synopsis... A strong deep-layer cyclone over the central High Plains on Friday morning is expected to weaken somewhat as it moves slowly eastward through the period. A dryline associated with the cyclone will move into portions of central OK/north-central TX during the afternoon, as a trailing cold front sweeps through portions of New Mexico and West Texas. Critical conditions are possible in the wake of the dryline and cold front. ...New Mexico/West Texas into the central/southern Plains... While some cooling is expected on Friday, critical conditions are expected to develop within the dry and windy post-frontal regime from southeast New Mexico into portions of West Texas. Sustained westerly winds of 20-25 MPH are expected in this area, while RH values will fall into the 10-20% range. Further northeast into portions of north Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas, a corridor of elevated to potentially critical conditions is expected Friday afternoon immediately behind the dryline and ahead of the cold front. The best chance of critical conditions in this regime appears to be from western north TX into southwest/central OK, where southwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will combine with minimum RH values of 10-20%. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the northward and eastward extent of the critical threat, but at least elevated conditions are possible into portions of eastern OK and south-central KS. While some antecedent rainfall is possible over portions of the elevated and critical areas, at this time the probability of wetting rainfall appears rather low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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