Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue May 23 07:05:04 UTC 2017 (20170523 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170523 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 230700

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   Upper trough covering much of the central and eastern CONUS at the
   beginning of the period is expected to shift eastward into more of
   the eastern CONUS while the embedded upper low moves across the
   middle MS Valley into the TN Valley. Upper ridging is expected
   across the Plans in the wake of the upper trough with another
   shortwave trough following behind the upper ridge across the
   northern Rockies and Canadian prairie provinces. At the surface, a
   large area of low pressure will drift across the eastern CONUS while
   lee troughing deepens across the High Plains. Cyclogenesis is
   anticipated within this lee troughing across eastern WY.

   A more progressive upper pattern will foster a modest increase in
   westerly flow aloft over the region. A tightening of the surface
   pressure gradient is also expected as lower pressures from the High
   Plains westward are paired with higher pressures across the Plains.
   Deep boundary-layer mixed within this environment will result in
   gusty winds across a large portion of the Southwest states. In
   addition to increased wind speeds, a very dry antecedent airmass
   will support afternoon RH values in the low teens and upper
   single-digits. The combination of low RH and gusty winds will likely
   result in meteorological conditions supportive of a critical fire
   weather threat. However, fuel guidance continues to show ERC values
   around the 60-75th percentile and above-average 100-hr and 1000-hr
   fuel moisture, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. As a
   result, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a large
   part of the Southwest. Some locally critical conditions are possible
   in areas where fuels are sufficiently dry.

   ..Mosier.. 05/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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