Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 85,909 21,277,449 Los Angeles, CA...Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 081649

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

   VALID 081700Z - 091200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
   IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SW OK SEWD TO THE CNTRL/ERN TX
   COAST...

   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA
   THIS MORNING WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
   20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS NEAR 30-40 MPH/ AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
   PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME AS
   THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT DECREASES BUT CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. FUELS REMAIN THE MOST RECEPTIVE
   ACROSS LA AND VENTURA COUNTIES...RESULTING IN A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT...WHILE THE THREAT FOR AREAS FARTHER S WILL BE
   TEMPERED BY LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS. 

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AMIDST A DRY...POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS STILL
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 20
   PERCENT...DESPITE COLD ADVECTION AND BELOW-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
   /GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S/. NWLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
   ABOVE 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FOR MOST OF THE REGION. PREVIOUS
   CRITICAL AREA WAS EXTENDED NWWD TO INCLUDE AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
   ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND SEWD TO INCLUDE AREAS
   WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20
   PERCENT. WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA WAS DETERMINED BY THE
   CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH WHILE THE
   EASTERN EXTENT WAS DETERMINED BY CONFIDENCE IN MIN RH VALUES BELOW
   25 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
   IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE EWD EXPANSION WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER
   CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT OVERLAP BETWEEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND MIN RH
   VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT WHILE THE WRN EXPANSION WAS MADE TO INCLUDE
   AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH
   INCREASED.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/08/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0303 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED...YET QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
   MICHIGAN SPREADS INTENSE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
   THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS.  FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE
   WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AREAS WEST OF THE
   CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
   AREAS...ONE OVER LAKE ERIE AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF STREAM...WILL
   SPREAD BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...WITH DRY AREAS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPERIENCING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. 
   A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALSO...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   A CRITICAL ATMOSPHERIC FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
   FROM MID-MORNING ONWARD TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.  THE OFFSHORE
   GRADIENT CAUSED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
   RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE REGION
   /APPROACHING 60 MPH IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS/.  TEMPERATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S F DUE TO FULL SUNSHINE AND THE
   NORTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE...WHILE SURFACE RH VALUES FALL TO 12-18
   PERCENT.  AT THIS TIME...THE CRITICAL DELINEATION IS COLLOCATED WITH
   THE AREAS OF DRIEST FUELS IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. 
   SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...FUELS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS SUPPORTIVE
   OF A HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT BUT AN ELEVATED AREA WILL BE
   MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGHER-END ATMOSPHERIC
   ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.  THIS REGION WILL BE RE-EVALUATED LATER TODAY.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   THE STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
   AREAS IN THE EAST AND HIGH OVER THE WEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY
   NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.  10-20 MPH WIND
   SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
   PORTIONS OF THE ELEVATED REGION TODAY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS
   /APPROACHING 40 MPH/ EXPECTED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.
    RH VALUES REGION-WIDE SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 20-30 PERCENT DURING PEAK
   HEATING PERIODS TODAY.  FUELS IN THIS REGION ARE DRY AND CONDUCIVE
   FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE
   PAST 30 DAYS /ESPECIALLY IN TEXAS/.  FARTHER NORTH INTO
   KANSAS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES /40-45F/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
   MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT...BUT DRY
   FUELS...FULL SUNSHINE...WINDY CONDITIONS...AND THE PRESENCE OF LARGE
   FIRES IN THAT REGION YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   THERE JUSTIFIES AN ELEVATED DELINEATION THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 081804

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 PM CST MON FEB 08 2016

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
   WILL APPROACH 90 DEG F /10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE/ DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT. THESE METEOROLOGICAL
   CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH FUELS PRIMED DURING THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE
   FLOW DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. GRADUALLY DECREASING SPATIAL
   EXTENT OF THE GUSTY WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

   ..MOSIER.. 02/08/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0303 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE EASTERN TROUGH/WESTERN RIDGE PATTERN IN PLACE ON D1/MON WILL
   REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE
   CHANGE.  AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD/WEAK CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
   EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A
   STRONG ANTICYCLONE MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY AND ANOTHER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST.  THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MUCH OF THE PAST
   WEEK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING/RETREAT OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
   THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.  DESPITE THIS...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TYPICALLY
   TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS EXPERIENCING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.  TEMPERATURES
   ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 90 F UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...AND ANOTHER
   DAY OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONTINUED DRYING
   OF FUELS.  THE OVERALL LOWER MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT PRECLUDES
   ISSUANCE OF ANY CRITICAL DELINEATIONS FOR THIS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
   THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR INDICATIONS OF STRONGER WINDS THAN
   CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH MAY INCREASE THE ATTENDANT FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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