Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 031543

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 031700Z - 041200Z

   NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST.  CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
   THAT LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE BRIEF
   PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING CRITICAL CRITERIA...BUT THESE
   CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.  FOR
   ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

   ..COOK.. 07/03/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0355 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE PERSISTENT WESTERN UNITED STATES MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
   DAMPEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
   SOUTHEAST INTO ALBERTA. DOWNSTREAM...A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL
   DEVELOP EAST OF THE CASCADES COINCIDENT WITH PERSISTENT HOT/DRY
   CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE EAST...A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH/EAST UNITED
   STATES.

   ...CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
   THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN TROUGH WILL ACT TO
   ENHANCE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FOLLOWING
   DOWNSLOPE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH AND AN
   INCREASE IN SURFACE-PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS STRONGER SURFACE
   GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
   ADDITIONALLY GUSTIER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO MID-LEVEL
   WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER. AFTERNOON RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL AS LOW AS THE
   TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH
   THE STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED-TO-LOCALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

   ...FAR SOUTHERN OREGON...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...SIERRA
   MOUNTAINS...AND MUCH OF NEVADA...
   AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT
   VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   WESTERN UNITED STATES RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
   GIVEN PRECIPITABLE-WATER VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE AN INCH AND WEAK
   MID-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
   /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEVADA/....ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
   SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAINS. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES LIGHTNING STRIKES
   OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CORES WILL STILL POSE A POTENTIAL TO IGNITE
   NEW FIRE STARTS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 031548

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   NO CHANGES NEEDED.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
   DISCUSSION BELOW.

   ..COOK.. 07/03/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0437 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH-OVER-LOW MID-/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH-OVER-RIDGE LOCATED
   ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM /ACROSS EASTERN
   NORTH AMERICA/ MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST. GENERALLY HOT/DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH COOLER/WETTER
   CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

   ...CENTRAL OREGON NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS DAY-1/FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
   STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   DEEPLY-MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER AND MINIMUM RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES IN
   THE TEENS-TO-MID 20S PERCENT RANGE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
   THE LARGER WESTERN CANADIAN TROUGH ACROSS ALBERTA WILL REINFORCE THE
   LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS TO
   DEVELOP. ONE CAVEAT IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH CLOUD COVER /ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OR LEFT OVER FROM
   DAY-1/FRIDAY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/ MAY LIMIT OVERALL HEATING AND KEEP
   RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES HIGHER THAN DAY-1/FRIDAY. EITHER
   WAY...GIVEN THE PREEXISTING HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
   AREA...ELEVATED-T0-LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ...GREAT BASIN...SIERRA MOUNTAINS...AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON...
   ONCE AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION AS
   VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
   WESTERN RIDGE. PRECIPITABLE-WATER VALUES AROUND OR GREATER THAN ONE
   INCH WILL SUPPORT WET THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING STRIKES
   OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CORES WILL STILL POSE A RISK FOR FIRE
   STARTS. ADDITIONALLY...THE DRY...DEEPLY-MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   POSE A DOWNBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. PLEASE SEE THE
   LATEST SPC DAY-2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONALLY INFORMATION
   REGARDING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home