Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 45,038 178,851 Casper, WY...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Miles City, MT...Torrington, WY...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281726

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 281700Z - 291200Z

   CORRECTED TO FIX ISOLATED DRY-TSTM LINE

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE MT...ERN WY...WRN NEB
   PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN SD...

   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SE
   MT...NRN WY...SW ND...AND NW SD. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT INTO NRN WY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
   EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO AREAS WHERE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
   WIND/RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY/DEEP
   SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND RAPID STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
   AMOUNTS WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH LOCALLY WETTING RAINFALL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. STRONG/ERRATIC OUTFLOW
   WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LOCALLY EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR FIRE SPREAD AWAY FROM THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES. ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO
   SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...BUT SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
   AFTER PEAK HEATING WHEN RH RECOVERY WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY...THE
   ISOLATED DRY-TSTM DELINEATION HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED THIS FAR SOUTH. 

   OTHERWISE...THE EXISTING ELEVATED/CRITICAL DELINEATIONS ARE LARGELY
   UNCHANGED. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
   INFORMATION REGARDING THE STRONG WIND/LOW RH THREAT.

   ..DEAN/COHEN.. 03/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0340 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
   AN ERN CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND UPPER
   RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS DAMPENS. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST W OF
   THE ROCKIES.  PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE OTHER MOVING THROUGH THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES -- WILL ACT TO DEEPEN SURFACE LEE
   TROUGHING INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS THEY MOVE
   EWD. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
   MOVED THROUGH WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY 00Z/SUN. 

   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WLY FLOW
   ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
   PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST
   WINDS /AROUND 30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MT AND WY WITH WEAKER
   WINDS /15 TO 20 MPH/ TO THE S AND W. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
   WILL BE WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH LOW 70S EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
   MT...INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS NE CO..SE
   WY...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
   THIS REGION AS WELL WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW
   20S. 

   THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
   FROM SE MT SWD ACROSS ERN WY AND INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE. RH
   VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN SD...MUCH OF THE NEB
   PANHANDLE...AND NE CO BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 MPH
   WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL THREAT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED OVER CNTRL WY BUT UNRECEPTIVE FUELS IN THE HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG /30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH 45 MPH GUSTS/
   ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
   CLOUDINESS WITH A RESULTANT REDUCTION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
   RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
   TRENDED A BIT WETTER WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAN
   INDICATED YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...ELECTED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA IN
   AN ELEVATED RISK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE MT WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE CRITICAL
   DELINEATION. 

   ...CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
   FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE BUT SOME
   LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS SUSTAINED
   NWLY WINDS APPROACH 15 MPH AND DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT
   MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281726

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING ELEVATED AREA. LATEST
   GFS/ECMWF AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH COMBINED WITH RH VALUES OF
   20-30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. SEE THE
   PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
   THREAT.

   ..DEAN.. 03/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0343 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MO
   RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER OVER SRN MANITOBA -- WILL PROGRESS
   SEWD...ULTIMATELY EVOLVING INTO BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
   MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS. AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD/SEWD THE
   PLAINS...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY...AND OH VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
   MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. 

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A LARGE AREA
   OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. INCONSISTENCIES WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
   REGARDING JUST HOW DRY THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE INTRODUCES
   MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED WITH A DAY 2
   FORECAST. THE GREATEST DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE EXIST ACROSS THE
   MID MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND
   GFS ARE AT OR ABOVE 10 DEGREES. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
   DEWPOINT...CONSENSUS IS VERY GOOD THAT WINDS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY
   EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BE QUITE STRONG /SUSTAINED OVER 30
   MPH POSSIBLE/. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE MID MO VALLEY
   IN A ELEVATED DELINEATION DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG FARTHER W
   /ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS/ BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
   BE WARMER WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT.
   REFINEMENTS TO THE ELEVATED AREA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
   FORECASTS AS UNCERTAINTY DECREASES.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home