Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301638

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

   VALID 301700Z - 311200Z

   LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL
   NM...FAR SERN AZ...AND FAR W TX...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING. 12Z SOUNDING FROM EPZ SHOWS A DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER FROM 825-600 MB...AND A TOTAL PWAT VALUE OF 0.66 INCH.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z NAM AND 15Z RAP SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 20-30 KT/ ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW
   CURRENTLY OVER WRN AZ WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO MOVE
   NEWD...LEAVING LITTLE WETTING RAINFALL IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THE
   COMBINATION OF LOWERED SFC RH VALUES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MARGINAL
   PWAT VALUES...A DRY/WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...MODESTLY ENHANCED
   MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND DRY FUELS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. STRONG/GUSTY
   OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM IN THIS REGIME.

   ..GLEASON.. 05/30/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS AZ...WITH A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF SRN NM. A
   DRYLINE WILL BECOME POSITIONED FROM THE TX BIG BEND NWD ACROSS THE
   SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER N...A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...WHILE
   A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST.

   ...SRN NM AND FAR W TX...
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS SWRN
   NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER AZ. STRONG DIURNAL
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...AND WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS
   INITIATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. 20-30 KT OF MIDLEVEL
   FLOW...COUPLED WITH A DRY/WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...WILL RESULT
   IN LOW PRECIPITATION TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONVECTION AS RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSITIONED E OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM AND
   FAR W TX.

   LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING RH
   VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL WIND/RH
   VALUES AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...NO ELEVATED RISK AREA
   WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301812

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NERN/E-CNTRL AZ
   AND NWRN/W-CNTRL NM HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD/WWD BASED ON LATEST
   SHORT-TERM CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL FORECAST
   REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
   MORE INFORMATION.

   ..GLEASON.. 05/30/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
   AND WILL REACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY WED MORNING. A WEAK
   UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY ACROSS AZ...BUT WILL DRIFT
   IN A GENERAL SEWD DIRECTION. A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME
   CENTERED OVER NRN CA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING NEAR THE PACIFIC
   COAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...NERN AZ...NWRN NM...
   MARGINAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AMIDST MODEST MIDLEVEL
   MOISTENING ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN AZ.
   THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HIGHER
   TERRAIN AREAS /INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM OF NERN AZ/ DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW...MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AS ANY
   MOISTURE INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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