Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231650

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 231700Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ECNTRL NV...

   ...ECNTRL NV...
   THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN ECNTRL NV HAS BEEN TRIMMED
   OWING TO SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 20 MPH.
   THERE WILL BE A SHARP NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT OF MIDLEVEL WIND
   SPEEDS ACROSS NV THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRONGER
   SURFACE WINDS FARTHER NORTH AS VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.

   ...FAR SERN ORE...
   ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR A FEW
   HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WETTING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
   YESTERDAY WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE.  NEVERTHELESS...LONGER-TERM
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECENT LIGHTNING WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCALES THAT DID NOT RECEIVE WETTING
   RAINS.

   ...NERN ORE INTO WCNTRL ID...
   OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE WETTING RAINS
   GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES...THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERALL
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH FAST STORM MOTION /AOA 40
   MPH/ SHOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. 
   THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD
   LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...CNTRL UT...
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT REGARDING ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL UT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
   NORTH AND WEST OF BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
   FORM WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP IN A DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   HIGH CLOUD BASES...SUPPORTING DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

   ..JIRAK.. 07/23/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0318 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL DAMPEN
   SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES. FARTHER E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE TN RIVER VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO A
   DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. UPPER LOW
   OVER THE MS RIVER DELTA WILL REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE WHILE
   ELONGATING. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NRN
   AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. 

   ...MUCH OF NV...FAR WRN UT...SERN ORE...SRN ID...SWRN WY...
   MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE PACIFIC NW
   UPPER LOW AND THE CNTRL ROCKIES HIGH...EXTENDING FROM NRN CA NEWD
   INTO SRN ALBERTA. THIS ENHANCED FLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
   POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV AND
   SERN ORE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-20 MPH
   ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
   MID/UPPER FLOW...DEEP MIXING...AND A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT...GUIDANCE APPEARS UNDERDONE. SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH /POSSIBLY HIGHER/ SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
   GUIDANCE ACROSS SERN ORE APPEARS REASONABLE WITH 25 MPH SUSTAINED
   SWLY EXPECTED.

   AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES
   FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS CNTRL NV WHERE
   SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
   WINDS AND LOW RH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS
   CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 50,316 132,167 Rock Springs, WY...Green River, WY...Havre, MT...Riverton, WY...Lander, WY...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231935

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NCNTRL MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL WY...

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST /SEE DISCUSSION
   BELOW/.  SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ACROSS NCNTRL MT.  SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT THE SURFACE
   /AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT/ ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
   WESTERLIES /ABOVE 20 MPH/ APPEARS VERY LIKELY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
   ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
   AND PRODUCES MORE RAIN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
   THAN THE LATEST NAM...GFS...AND SREF /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF
   OF THE CRITICAL AREA/.  MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE
   UPDATES TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED.

   ..JIRAK.. 07/23/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ENEWD FROM NE WA/SE BC ACROSS SRN ALBERTA
   AND INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE PERIOD. THIS CONTINUED EWD
   PROGRESS WILL DAMPEN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
   CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN
   CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   SHIFT SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY WHILE A
   LEE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE LEE TROUGH
   /WRN SD/. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
   PUSH ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT. 

   ...CNTRL/ERN MT...MOST OF WY...S-CNTRL/SE ID...NE/CNTRL/SW
   UT...E-CNTRL/SRN NV...
   A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
   EXPECTED WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
   LOW OVERLAPS WITH THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE NRN EXTENT
   OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   ACROSS E-CNTRL/SRN NV NEWD INTO SRN WY WHERE MIN RH VALUES FROM THE
   UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS THROUGHOUT
   MOST OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   FROM 20 TO 25 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS CNTRL WY WITH A RESULTANT
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAINS.

   FARTHER N /CNTRL AND ERN MT/...FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY DIFFERENCE
   IN SUGGESTED FRONTAL TIMING AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. NAM FORECAST IS
   FASTER AND TAKES THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN MT BY 21Z...LIMITING
   POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE ABSAROKA RANGE. GFS IS
   SLOWER WITH A FORECAST DEWPOINT 25 DEG F LOWER THAN THE NAM AT BIL.
   AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A CRITICAL DELINEATE WITH
   THIS FORECAST. IN CONTRAST... CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS IS HIGH ACROSS N-CNTRL MT WITH A THREAT AREA DELINEATED
   ACCORDINGLY.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home