Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281641

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

   VALID 281700Z - 291200Z

   ...FAR ERN CO/WRN AND SRN KS/NRN OK...
   15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE CENTERED OVER
   CNTRL NEB AND THE OTHER OVER N-CNTRL SD...WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF
   LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS ALREADY
   THROUGH DDC...WHERE NWLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A CONTINUED SEWD PUSH OF
   THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS -- SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   ABOVE 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH -- ACROSS WRN KS THIS
   AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
   /MID 60S TO LOW 70S/ WITH RESULTANT MIN RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT.
   AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
   ACROSS THIS REGION.

   FARTHER S AND E -- S-CNTRL/SE KS AND NRN OK -- TEMPERATURES HAVE
   ALREADY REACHED THE 60S AND SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS ARE OVER 20 MPH.
   HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED HERE WITH MIN RH
   VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
   ELEVATED AREA WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND IT EWD/SEWD ACROSS NE OK/SE KS.

   ..MOSIER.. 01/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0308 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OFFSHORE
   THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AS UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE ERN
   CONUS. FARTHER WEST...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSIT E/SE
   FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
   SRN TROUGH...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S/E ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
   MIDWEST.

   ...FAR ERN CO/WRN AND SRN KS/NRN OK...
   ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS
   DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
   KS/FAR ERN CO...DEEP W/NW FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
   EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
   MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNSLOPE
   FLOW/DIURNAL MIXING AND A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL YIELD RH
   VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE. 

   FARTHER SE...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH BY LATE
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DIURNAL
   MIXING WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS TO RESULT
   IN MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WITH
   CONTINUED DRYING OF FINER FUELS...THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT
   WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS ELEVATED
   AREA WAS MAINTAINED AND EXTENDED SE TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN KS
   AND NRN OK.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281716

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

   ..MOSIER.. 01/28/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0308 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEVERAL MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSIT E/SE ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN CYCLONIC FLOW ESTABLISHING
   ACROSS THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A MEAN TROUGH
   WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
   RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES
   BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...AS LOW PRES SHIFTS EWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND
   DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   PLAINS AND MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A MUCH
   COOLER AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE FEW AREAS OF LOWER RH VALUES FROM
   OVERLAPPING AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS ON D2/THU. AS SUCH...FIRE WX
   CONCERNS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND NO DELINEATION IS NEEDED.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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