Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301452

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0952 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

   VALID 301700Z - 011200Z

   OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...THOUGH SOME
   MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
   ORE WERE REMOVED...WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN NV AND CA AS WELL.
   THIS IS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND DEPICTS WHERE THE BEST
   OVERLAP OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND AVAILABLE FUELS EXISTS. FOR
   FURTHER DETAILS...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

   ..LEITMAN.. 09/30/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. COAST WILL
   SLOWLY APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RESULTING
   IN STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN DRY AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
   CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE CASCADES...AND A HIGH
   WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN COLORADO.  THE GRADIENT
   BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST. 

   ...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
   OREGON...
   THE AFOREMENTIONED GRADIENT...ALONG WITH VERTICAL MIXING OF
   HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...WILL FOSTER 20-30 MPH SURFACE
   FLOW IN MUCH OF THE REGION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
   60S TO MID 70S BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
   THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S DURING PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING. 
   EACH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300657

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ON
   D2/SAT...AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE SLOWLY OPENS AND DRIFTS
   ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM MEANDERS ALONG
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  STRONG /40-50 KNOT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ATOP
   DRY AREAS OF NEVADA/IDAHO/OREGON DURING THE DAY.  AT THE
   SURFACE...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF A SURFACE LOW WEST OF WASHINGTON
   STATE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE
   INTERIOR WEST.

   ...FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN
   IDAHO...AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
   SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE APPRECIABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS...PARTIALLY OWING TO A WEAKER SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  NEVERTHELESS...10-20 MPH
   SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED /LOCALLY STRONGER IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS
   OF NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA/.  DRY...PERHAPS
   VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 7-10 PERCENT IN WEST-CENTRAL
   NEVADA...AND 10-15 PERCENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DESPITE
   TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60-65F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  GIVEN
   THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA
   HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION.

   ..COOK.. 09/30/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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