Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301605

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

   VALID 301700Z - 311200Z

   NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO EITHER THE ONGOING ELEVATED
   OR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN GREAT
   BASIN AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
   BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

   THERE MAY ALSO BE VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH SHOWERY
   PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
   CNTRL ID INTO NWRN MT IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN CA. CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
   PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION THIS MORNING...AND THESE CLOUDS
   WILL LIKELY TEMPER DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY PER
   NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE
   AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
   STRIKES. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WILL
   REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA WITH THIS
   UPDATE ACROSS CNTRL ID INTO NWRN MT. IF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WERE
   TO OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON.. 08/30/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONE APPROACHING THE COAST OF NRN CA FROM THE E PACIFIC. THIS
   CYCLONE...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ARE
   FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NRN CA/WRN ORE NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. INCREASED
   FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES FROM PORTIONS
   OF ORE TO NRN NV AND VICINITY...AS A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ALSO TRACKS NEWD.

   ...PORTIONS OF ORE...SWRN ID...NRN NV...NERN CA...
   ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
   TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ORE...SWRN ID...NRN NV...AND NERN
   CA. IN THESE AREAS...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING INTO ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT
   ATTENDANT TO THE CYCLONE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
   SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
   DEEP MIXING AMIDST A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS COUPLED WITH
   DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENHANCED WARMING/DRYING IN MANY AREAS IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT MINIMUM RH AROUND 5-15 PERCENT. THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE LOWEST RH AT PEAK
   HEATING. AS SUCH...CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
   PRESENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY/MARGINAL
   BASIS.

   ALSO...A COMPACT CORRIDOR OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTURE PRECEDING THE
   TROUGH IS FORECAST TO YIELD NON-ZERO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN
   PORTIONS OF ORE. BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE QUITE
   LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS SFC
   HEATING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. REGARDLESS...THE LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/ASCENT...AND
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND
   A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...COULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TO NERN
   ORE AND VICINITY. FURTHERMORE...AMPLE FLOW THROUGH THE
   CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS BY ENCOURAGING FAST STORM MOTIONS. WHILE THE LIMITED
   DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION DETRACT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
   POTENTIAL...THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND RELATED PRECEDING
   STRONG ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   EXIST. AS SUCH...THE ISOLATED DRY-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN
   MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.

   ...SRN CA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SANTA
   BARBARA...VENTURA...SRN KERN...AND NWRN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
   LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
   FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SFC
   PRESSURE GRADIENT MODESTLY TIGHTENS YIELDING LOCALIZED SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT A LARGER-SCALE/MORE ROBUST TIGHTENING OF THE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PRESENTLY
   FORECAST TO BE TOO SPOTTY FOR FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301905

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM AND ELEVATED AREAS FOR D2/WED BASED ON LATEST
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
   ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

   ..GLEASON.. 08/30/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID LEVELS...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE
   WRN CONUS...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND
   CYCLONIC FLOW OVERLIES THE NORTHEAST. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN
   THE WRN-CONUS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODESTLY ENHANCED SWLY
   FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY.
   THIS PATTERN WILL ENCOURAGE SFC TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
   MT...LOCALLY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM PARTS OF ERN MT
   INTO NERN WY.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND VICINITY...
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE MODESTLY ENHANCED FLOW
   ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20
   MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS -- AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN
   NV...NWRN UT...NERN CA...SERN ORE...SRN ID...AND SWRN MT. THESE
   WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT AND DRY
   FUELS IN MANY AREAS TO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON A SPOTTY
   BASIS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   WHERE CRITICAL RH MATERIALIZES SHOULD MITIGATE THE CRITICAL
   FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NV...NWRN UT...CNTRL/SRN
   ID...AND SWRN MT...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ON
   THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC-FLOW AREA. DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AMIDST PW AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...AIDED
   BY MODERATE STORM MOTIONS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
   ISOLATED.

   ...PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND NERN WY...
   THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLY TO SSELY
   SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE LIMITED...SUCH
   THAT DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RH
   FALLING TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AMIDST DRY FUELS. ELEVATED TO
   BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT AN EVEN DRIER ANTECEDENT AIR MASS...ANY CRITICAL
   RISK SHOULD BE BRIEF/SPOTTY/MARGINAL.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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