Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 311520

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

   VALID 311700Z - 011200Z

   NO CHANGES NEEDED...PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0329 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
   CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.  AS A
   RESULT...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONG WINDS IN THE
   LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CA AND SRN ORE AS MIDLEVEL
   MOISTURE INCREASES.

   ...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
   A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA /PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY/ MAY PLAY A ROLE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTENING AND
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
   THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
   /SUPPORTED BY LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL RUNS/ IS MOST LIKELY
   OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
   OREGON THROUGH TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL
   HEATING.  PW VALUES BELOW 0.75 IN AND DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL
   SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311824

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0124 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...

   ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON
   SATURDAY.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF MT/ND AND
   TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AIDING IN
   BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
   WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   EXIST ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WITH CONTINUED HOT
   AND DRY CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
   MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 10-20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
   AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS. 

   NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...SEE PREVIOUS
   FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0431 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
   SATURDAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE THE
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
   AT THE SURFACE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE GREAT BASIN AND DEVELOP FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
   AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
   WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...VERTICAL MIXING OF ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER
   NORTHERN MONTANA MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
   DRIVEN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
   AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON.

   ...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
   WITHOUT ANY OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FEATURES TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...LOCAL TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS FROM DIURNAL
   HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ON
   SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS /BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 IN/...DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYERS WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION AND LIMIT SURFACE
   RAINFALL...SUPPORTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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