Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 101624

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

   Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

   Gusty winds and relative-humidity values in the 20 and 30 percents
   are still expected across portions of the southern High Plains
   today. However, fuels still look to remain unreceptive for large
   fires. Thus, no changes have been made to the forecast.

   ..Marsh.. 12/10/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   With quasi-zonal flow aloft across much of the CONUS, a low
   amplitude trough with attendant mid/upper-level speed maximum is
   forecast to advance eastward from the West Coast to the central
   Rockies through the period. A surface lee trough will develop across
   the central and southern High Plains by this afternoon in response
   to the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough/speed maximum.

   ...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
   Locally strong westerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur across mainly
   eastern NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles this afternoon as the
   surface lee trough strengthens. Downslope trajectories will
   encourage some low-level warming/drying of an antecedent cold
   airmass. However, RH values are forecast to become only marginally
   lowered, generally remaining at or above 20 percent. Furthermore,
   guidance continues to suggest fuels will not be overly receptive to
   large fire starts. Therefore, no elevated area appears warranted.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101624

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

   Gusty winds are once again expected across portions of the southern
   High Plains and southwest Texas, however, latest numerical guidance
   is in poor agreement with the degree of warming/drying ahead of a
   surface cold front. Latest available runs of the NAM and ECMWF
   models are not as bullish on the strength of the low-level winds and
   subsequent warming/drying as the GFS model. Given the orientation of
   the low-level low/trough, suspect that some warming and drying will
   occur ahead of the cold front as downslope winds develop.
   Uncertainty regarding the ability for surface winds and drying to
   occur over a sufficiently large area for a sufficiently long enough
   time is too high to warrant the introduction of elevated areas at
   this time.

   ..Marsh.. 12/10/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A low-amplitude upper trough will progress eastward from the
   north-central CONUS to the Great Lakes region on Sunday, and strong
   mid/upper-level winds will reside over much of the CONUS. At the
   surface, a large area of weak low pressure initially over the
   central Plains should consolidate and develop northeastward to the
   lower Great Lakes by Sunday evening. A cold front attendant to the
   surface low will move southward across the southern Plains. Surface
   lee troughing will continue ahead of the front over parts of the
   southern High Plains Sunday afternoon.

   ...Portions of the Southern High Plains...
   Strong downslope winds around 20-30 mph may occur ahead of the
   previously mentioned cold front Sunday afternoon across portions of
   eastern NM and west TX. Warming/drying associated with these
   westerly winds may allow for some RH reduction to near 20%,
   particularly across far west TX. While locally elevated conditions
   may be realized mainly across far west TX for a couple hours Sunday
   afternoon, there is still uncertainty in the degree of RH reduction
   in short-term guidance across this region. Will therefore defer
   introduction of an elevated area pending additional model guidance.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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