Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210834

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES E/NE INTO SERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BELT OF ENHANCED
   FLOW WILL EXIST ON ITS PERIPHERY...GENERALLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
   THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A WEAK REX
   BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A MEAN
   TROUGH...AS RIDGING ACROSS THE PAC NW PROGRESSES EWD AND A WEAK
   MID/UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER SRN CA. AT THE SFC...AN OCCLUDED LOW
   WILL PERSIST OVER ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. TO THE WEST...A COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
   BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED
   ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE MID/UPPER MO VALLEY...
   WITH A CONTINUATION OF DEEP N/NWLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...WINDY
   CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING.
   ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS DAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
   20-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOREOVER...WHILE SOME COOL-SEASON FUELS
   /E.G. SHORTER GRASSES/ HAVE EXPERIENCED GREEN-UP...MANY
   TALLER/WARM-SEASON FUELS REMAIN DORMANT AND PRE-CONDITIONED BY THE
   WINDY/DRY DAY PRIOR TO THE PERIOD. IN TERMS OF RH VALUES...THE
   N/NWLY FLOW AROUND THE WRN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
   TO REINFORCE A DRY AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES OF 0.2-0.3
   IN/ OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...DIURNAL MIXING/HEATING...ESPECIALLY
   EARLIER IN THE DAY...MAY BE SLIGHTLY SUBDUED BY AN INCREASE IN
   MID-LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOTED IN WV
   IMAGERY OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF 08Z/ AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS
   THE REGION. THEREFORE...WHILE RH VALUES MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 20
   PERCENT...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD MIN VALUES WILL BE IN
   THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SSEO/SREF GUIDANCE.
   THEREFORE...CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME TEMPS...A
   CRITICAL DELINEATION WAS NOT INTRODUCED. HOWEVER...THE ELEVATED
   DELINEATION WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE SW AND TO THE NORTH TO
   ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE TRENDS.  

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ/SRN NM...
   AS SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
   WEAK SRN-CA LOW...VERY DEEP DIURNAL MIXING AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL YIELD SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH.
   WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ESTABLISHED...RH VALUES WILL FALL
   BELOW 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LACK OF
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT/LACK OF ANY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE NEAR
   THE REGION PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL DELINEATION WITH THIS
   FORECAST. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS ELEVATED DELINEATION HAS BEEN
   MAINTAINED. 

   ...CNTRL IL TO CNTRL OH...
   LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE-WX CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AS STRONG WLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   MAIN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35
   MPH WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT TO INCREASE
   FIRE-WX CONCERNS. HOWEVER...LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MIN RH VALUES
   BELOW 25 PERCENT...AS WELL AS FUELS ACROSS THIS REGION BEING LESS
   RECEPTIVE THAN THEY ARE OVER THE NRN PLAINS...PRECLUDES DELINEATION
   AT THIS TIME.

   ..PICCA.. 04/21/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210935

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY DURING THE
   D2/WED PERIOD...AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
   THE CONUS...AND BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS SITUATED OVER MUCH OF CA.
   BETWEEN THE TWO...RIDGING WILL EXIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS N/NWWD
   INTO ALBERTA. THE RESULTANT SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE RIDGING
   EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES S/SEWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY
   AND DOWN TO FL. FARTHER WEST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.

   ...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...SRN/CNTRL NM...AND FAR WRN TX...
   WITH THE SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROUGH...LIKELY OVER SRN CA AT
   THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND ITS
   PERIPHERY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE UPON THE SWRN CONUS. A DEEP LAYER
   OF DRY W/SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT
   OVER THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 0.25 OR LESS. IN
   TURN...DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE MIN RH VALUES BELOW 10-15
   PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THEY
   WILL BE RECEPTIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BASIS.
   HOWEVER...A CONSIDERABLE FACTOR FOR UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
   FORECAST WIND STRENGTH...WHICH WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE EWD
   MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT JET MAXIMA. A FASTER
   EWD PROGRESSION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SOME AREA OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS...RESULTING FROM MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS
   ALOFT. AT PRESENT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
   WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 MPH...CONSISTENT WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE-WX
   THREAT /AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS/. HOWEVER...A CRITICAL
   DELINEATION /ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE MTNS AND
   SERN NM/ MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER FLOW INCREASES.
   FURTHERMORE...SUCH A SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY INVOLVE A GREATER EWD
   DISPLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...AND SUBSEQUENT EWD EXPANSION OF THE
   ELEVATED DELINEATION.

   ..PICCA.. 04/21/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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