ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041711 
SPC MCD 041711 
MIZ000-042115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT WED APR 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 041711Z - 042115Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE FAVORABLE
MIXED PHASED LAYER FOR DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IS CONTRIBUTING
TO A DEVELOPING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WHICH APPEARS
LIKELY TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
16-18Z. THIS IS GENERALLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 90+
KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
FEATURE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...SUPPORTING CONTINUING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. 
COINCIDING LOW/ MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING LIFT AND PRECIPITATION
RATES WITHIN A MOIST /PW AROUND .50 INCHES/ SUBFREEZING ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY SNOW RATES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER
HOUR...WHICH LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..DEAN.. 04/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43638648 44628639 45378542 45788479 45638388 45398347
            44928325 44178339 43878398 43658458 43648535 43618623
            43638648 

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