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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Issued on Nov 8, 2009
Updated: Sun Nov 8 08:30:03 UTC 2009
| D4 | Wed, Nov 11, 2009 - Thu, Nov 12, 2009 |
D7 | Sat, Nov 14, 2009 - Sun, Nov 15, 2009 |
| D5 | Thu, Nov 12, 2009 - Fri, Nov 13, 2009 |
D8 | Sun, Nov 15, 2009 - Mon, Nov 16, 2009 |
| D6 | Fri, Nov 13, 2009 - Sat, Nov 14, 2009 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) |
Note: A severe weather
area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability
for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be
possible based on some model scenarios.
However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt
due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of
organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire
period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe
storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080829
SPC AC 080829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO HAVE BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL
BY DAY 4 (WEDNESDAY) AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NERN GULF NEAR
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE COULD STILL FACE SOME
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS STILL TOO
HIGH AT THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL POSSIBLY DAY 7 OR 8 WHEN
MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. DIFFERENCES
EXIST AMONG MODELS IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
ECMWF BEING DEEPER AND STRONGER INDICATING A GREATER SEVERE THREAT.
PREDICTABILITY WITH THIS PATTERN REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 11/08/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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