ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 260918
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0418 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NM...S-CNTRL
   CO...
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
   SHIFTS EWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. A BELT OF STRONG
   MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SRN
   ROCKIES NNEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A CYCLONE WILL TRACK
   NWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
   EXTENDS SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVER THE SERN
   CONUS...SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL APPROACH THE NRN FL COAST AND
   BRING EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NM...S-CNTRL CO...
   A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
   WILL PROGRESS E-NEWD ACROSS NM THIS PERIOD. AN ATTENDANT BELT OF
   STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /E.G. 30-40 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL BE POSITIONED
   OVER THE AREA...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL-MIXED...WIND
   SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /APPROACHING 30 MPH AT HIGHER
   ELEVATION LOCALES/. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER IN
   THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE
   PERIOD...VERY DRY CONDITIONS /E.G. PWAT VALUES AOB 0.2 INCH/ WILL
   PERSIST AND YIELD MIN RH VALUES OF 5-10 PERCENT. THESE
   CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A RECENTLY OBSERVED PROLONGED DRY/WINDY
   PERIOD...WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE RISK AREA.
   
   ...ERN CO...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR ERN NM...
   A DRYLINE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NNE-SSW FROM WRN KS THROUGH THE
   TX PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. TO
   THE W OF THE DRYLINE...STRONG SWLY WINDS /E.G. SUSTAINED AT 20-30
   MPH/ WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ENHANCED
   BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING PARTIALLY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL RESULT
   IN MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 8-15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THESE
   CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST MONTH IS
   EXPECTED TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
   A DRYLINE LATE SAT/D1 INTO EARLY SUN/D2...SUPPORTING FURTHER
   MOISTENING OF FUELS. THUS...A CRITICAL RISK AREA FOR THE SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM.
   
   ...SERN WY...WRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE...
   STRONG WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A
   DEPARTING CYCLONE...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 40 MPH
   OF MIDLEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY WARM
   /60S-70S/...DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED DRYING SHOULD YIELD RH VALUES FALLING
   TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR A CRITICAL
   RISK AREA...BUT WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ACROSS THE
   REGION WITHIN THE PAST MONTH...THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPERED.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 05/26/2012
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)