SPC AC 140516
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 PM CST MON FEB 13 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MEAN TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WITH MULTIPLE
   DISTURBANCES ROTATING WITHIN. OF RELEVANCE THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL
   BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
   DURING THE DAY...BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS
   IT APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...HEIGHTS WILL
   RISE ALOFT OVER THE SERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS
   FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST JUST OFFSHORE...AND
   WILL RETURN NWD TUE NIGHT OVER TX AND INTO OK AS A 30+ KT LOW LEVEL
   JET DEVELOPS.
   
   ...NERN TX...ERN OK...WRN AR...SWRN MO/SERN KS...
   LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE
   DAY...AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SELY OVER TX AND OK...AND LOW PRESSURE
   DEEPENS OVER ERN NM/W TX. SOME MODELS DO INDICATE THAT NEARLY
   UNCAPPED PARCELS WILL EXIST ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN OVER CNTRL/N CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...FORCING WILL BE
   FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME. MORE LIKELY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT
   AFTER 06Z...IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER AND EXPANDING NEWD
   ACROSS OK AND INTO WRN AR/SW MO BY 12Z WED. THESE STORMS WILL ALMOST
   ENTIRELY BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT ALSO BENEATH SOME
   COOLING ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...WITH
   SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. INCREASING
   DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR LONG LIVED CORES...MAYBE SOME
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/NAMKF MODELS...AS WELL AS ANTECEDENT
   MARGINALLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH LATE MOISTURE RETURN...ALL
   INDICATE THAT EFFECTIVE PARCELS FOR THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
   ELEVATED ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE AND/OR CAPPED LAYER. IN THIS
   CASE...TORNADOES WOULD BE UNLIKELY DESPITE LOW LEVEL VEERING/LARGE
   HODOGRAPHS.
   
   ..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 02/14/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z