Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 260559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
   ERN TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN WY DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD IN THE WRN
   CONUS AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS
   NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN
   ANCHORED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WHILE SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL
   GRADUALLY MOVE SWWD TOWARDS THE S ATLANTIC COAST PER NHC GUIDANCE.
   AT THE SURFACE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE
   NORTHEAST TO THE MIDWEST. WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
   ADVANCE NWD IN THE UPPER MS/MID-MO VALLEYS...WITH PRIMARY LEE
   CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE INVOF WY/NEB/CO BORDER AT 27/00Z AND LEE
   TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF TSTMS
   POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA N OF THE ADVANCING WARM
   FRONT AS STRONG CAPPING LARGELY INHIBITS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
   WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
   AT 12Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE DAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE HAIL THREAT...BUT ALSO BREEDING
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH
   NEAR-NEUTRAL HEIGHT CHANGE IN THE MID-LEVELS AND THE LACK OF
   APPARENT UPSTREAM IMPULSES TO AID IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...PROSPECTS
   FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE WARM
   FRONT/EFFECTIVE DRYLINE WILL BE DRIVEN BY SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
   HEATING. SOME MODELS /SUCH AS THE NAM/ DO SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES
   WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS CNTRL NEB WHICH WOULD MINIMIZE
   MLCIN AND MAY YIELD A FEW TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MLCAPE REACHING 3000-4500 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT
   RISKS OF ALL SEVERE TYPES. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK SWWD TO ACCOUNT
   FOR THIS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD NOCTURNALLY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE WELL N OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS
   AGAIN WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. 
   
   ...WRN KS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN
   INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE LEE
   TROUGH/DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
   MODERATE...BUT WITH LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...A RISK FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST. HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK
   S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGLY BUOYANT
   AIR MASS IN NEB/KS/OK.
   
   ...ERN WY...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   OVERSPREAD THE LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES RESULTING IN A DEEPENING
   SURFACE CYCLONE. SHEAR PROFILES N OF THE LOW WILL BECOME STRONG AND
   VEER SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER ON THE DEGREE
   OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND RESULTANT BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...A NARROW
   AXIS OF AT LEAST LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEARS PROBABLE.
   WHILE S OF THIS CORRIDOR...DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V
   TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND
   VERY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WILL OPT TO ADD A SMALL SLIGHT
   RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
   
   ..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 05/26/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z